Hello everyone. 1st time poster in this forum so bear with me if Im very noobish:-)

Case scenario. I have a gambling relationship with a fellow who is quite the maniac in backgammon as well as in cardgames. Ive been breaking even with him for a long while. Recently though, Ive been reading up on my game and improving alot, that now I find myself the better player. We play straight moneygame, w jacoby, beavers,racoons and autodouble when same dice in startthrow.

My opponents traits:
-will often take on clear drops
-tilts
-ok but not expert checkerplay
-giving the cube when slightly behind,- thus triggering a racoon sequence, hoping to get lucky in a big game.
-is more cautious wtih accepting larger cubes( especially after above sequence)

My question;

Since I am the better player- thus winning more games than my opponent should I make an effort to decrease the variance? Im asking because we are still breaking even due to a number of very large games going his way. So his "doublethe stakes" stratygy has been working up till now. Is it simply a matter of taste? since sooner or later he will loose very big as opposed to the avg. drip?

Thanks.

Assuming you are correct in your assessment that you are the better player, then no, you shouldn't be trying to reduce the variance. Just playing what you think are correct moves and cube decisions will win the most in the long run. Efforts to "reduce variance" or otherwise control the swings will just result in more errors on your part, sometimes very large ones.

On to the more serious question -- are you in fact the better player? Backgammon is a great two-person gambling game in part because it's very, very difficult to tell when you're up against a better player if neither of you compete in tournaments or play for a long time in the same chouette. When he makes a play you wouldn't have made, your natural reaction is "another mistake!" Add these 'mistakes' up over time and you become convinced you have a big edge. (He of course feels the same way about you.)

The best guide to "who's better?" is your cumulative result, and so far you say you're breaking even. That might well be the state of affairs. You play one style, he plays another, but on balance you're about the same. This isn't uncommon when two players sit down to play money games.

As far as cube decisions goes, in some positions we are not sure at all and oftentimes it is just a poorly educated guess.

Do you think this is a good heuristic based on your belief most players would make large errors doing this, or that it's a bad idea for anyone, even experts aware of this possibility? Because I don't see any reason why, in theory at least, you couldn't control yourself to be conservative in only making variance reducing plays when there is little EV difference between your moves. It's simply another factor you can evaluate on any given move, the fact you could weight it too heavily by no means implies that you should ignore it.

I think that you should continue to play your best as you improve. If you get to win too often against your friend, and you can no longer convince him that your just on a hot streak, maybe then it would be the time to throw in few losses to keep him happy.

Most players have much more serious problems to worry about than trying to "reduce variance". Just playing good backgammon is very difficult and deserves their full attention.

The real question, however, is -- why try to reduce variance at all? If you're the better player in a long heads up session, you should be trying to increase variance, not reduce it. Positions with low variance are mostly holding games, which are easy to play, even for weak players. Why seek out those games when your opponent will make much bigger mistakes in more dynamic positions?

well said, Robertie.
You are totally correct in that I need to "simply" play better still and worry only about that.
And- as variance is not inherently a bad thing, I too, see no point in trying to avoid or diminish it. I actually recently asked other regulars in online poker why they felt "running it twice" was a good idea but my questions were ignored.

Next question: are there any sort of breaking points I should be aware of when I am presented with a bad cube in early mid or late game? (remember the beaver usually triggers the raccoon) or should I always maximize his error?

Beavers and raccoons are so very rare that I would not spend too much time on them. More important is learning more about doubling points and take points. For example, you’ll be faced with the too-good decision (“Am I too good to double?”) much more often than you will any choice about furry mammals.

More significant is a point that has been made by others. By beavering a lesser opponent you may kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Your beaver tips him off just how bad his double was. In time, he may realize that he is outmatched playing against you, and stop entirely. In the long run, you might be better off just to take, and content yourself that your hapless opponent will return another day.

Mike

Don't want to derail the thread, but I will venture a humble answer nonetheless.

That could be:

• Some players don't respect bankroll management, so they play over their limits and try to compensate by reducing the variance that way;
• Some players are subject to tilt when they loose a massive pot, so they're trying to reduce these occurrences by running it twice;
• Some players/ballers just find it cool to run it twice.

/derail

It might be the same reason why some backgammon players limit the number of automatic doubles at the beginning of a money game.

This is just a reply worthy of someone carrying the adept status.

Variance in all gambling is very rarely your enemy provided you can bankroll manage and stay in good mental shape. It tilts your opponent harder, generally increases your edge as you focus on nothing but making the right move, and pushes your opponent far out of their comfort zone which usually makes them too conservative or far too reckless.

These factors in turn actually lower your variance very quickly, as generally the simplest way to decrease variance in gambling is increase your edge.