First of all, tyvm for your answer.
This position was sent to me by a good friend who was playing against xg, got doubled and passed it. He wondered if there could be a mathematically approach for him to prove that this is a take. Me, I am just more or less confident to do these calculations in moneygames, but in match play, calculations like these involve for my small brain too many factors to include in the calculation.Maybe someone like Mr. Robertie could?
IMO no human being would double this position and everybody just would go for the gammon.
XG ++ says that it's a double/take and a blunder not to double, so maybe somebody could prove it mathematically?
XGID=-a--BaEAB---dCa--a-c--b-bB:0:0:-1:00:1:4:0:7:10
X:XG Roller++ O:Player
Score is X:4 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 150 X-O: 4-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 71,71% (G:45,19% B:1,85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28,29% (G:7,05% B:0,44%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,911, Double=+1,480
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0,890 (-0,082)
Double/Take: +0,973
Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,027)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2