Quote:
Originally Posted by craigconnell
Also, when your opponent is 2 away, GNU seems to feel that the optimum time to double is when your chances of winning are 55%. I was wondering why not 51%, since you are giving your opponent a dead cube. But when your opponent is a 2 away GNU hates it when you double at 51%, but likes it when you double at around 55%, and hates it if you let the winning % get over 57%. Perhaps GNU feels that your opponent will most likely accept the double as long as your odds of winning are under 57% - so don't double at 51% and let it play out a little longer.
Thanks for your thoughts.
The key point here is the idea of a "market loser". You don't want to double unless there are some sequences where your opponent will drop if you wait and double next turn. Those sequences are called market losers and they're important. If your opponent could correctly take a double next turn after all or nearly all sequences, then you're better off waiting a turn, letting your position get a little better, then doubling.
If your winning % is only about 51% in the current position, then you probably have very few market losers, so GNU is correctly suggesting you wait on the cube.