Hello everyone! First of all: sorry if my post is not well formatted, it is my first time on this forum... I have read quite a few posts and really enjoyed the content and quality of the responses. So I have some questions about evaluating your winning chances in mid/late game, here is a spot that I got yesterday:
.. I was playing a 5 point match with a friend of mine and came up with an interesting spot.
The game was 1-1 and Villain had the cube (cube at 2). This position occured and he doubled, which is the right move (I am white , home board: lower right) :
http://imgur.com/cZRBzye
I correctly refused the game because I intuitively evaluated that I was winning more often the match at 1-3 than this specific game. Turned out my intuition was right since I had around 26% chances to win this match (according to XG). This 26% is lower than my 32% chances to win the match to 5 when Villain leads 3-1 (see equity table :
http://www.dummies.com/how-to/conten...ble-handy.html).
Now, had the board been a little different (giving me over the 32 % chances to win as evaluated by the equity table which is based on the fact that Villain and I are of the equivalent strength), I would have needed to accept. For instance, XG evaluates my winning chances in the following position at around 33,3 % :
http://imgur.com/FsWnMre
So finally, the question: how do you guys evaluate your mid to late winning chances in this type of spot? I know that making little mistakes of a few % equity do not mean that much, but how do you guys estimate your winning chances in spots like these two positions? Do you have any guidelines ?
Huge thanks,
Jiffypoops