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From error rate to Winning percentage

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12-22-2014 , 05:32 PM

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Hi all,

Im from the phone but i have a question that i forgot to ask many years ago

Assume a single cash game between two players (NO elo rating is known)

Player A played at error rate say 6.4 and player B played at error rate 13.5. Snowie usually After analyzing the game said "player A was xx% favourite to win the game" How was xx (a percentage) calculated?

Thank you

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12-24-2014 , 05:38 PM

eXtreme Gammon

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 56

DeltaPR = 7.1
DeltaElo = DeltaPR * 33 = 234.3
expectedppg = DeltaElo/50 * 0.100 = 0.469

So you can expect to win close to half a point per game in average.

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12-24-2014 , 05:54 PM

eXtreme Gammon

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 56

I misread your question.

how the computer is showing how favorite you are is based on the luck. If you had 0.200 of luck and won the game by 1, you are 0.800 ppg favorite.

Note that % here will only apply to match (if you have 20% of mwc and win (going from 50% at the beginning of the game to 100%)) you were 50%-20%=30% favorite

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12-25-2014 , 03:38 AM

Fllecha

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 321

Mmm but there was a link between performance rating and Be favourite: say i played a cash game at 1 PR and my opponent at 20 PR. Clearly the program has to say something like " player A was 96% favourite to win the game" if i rolled good that 96 would Be something like 98% and if i was unlucky with dice it would Be something like 90%...

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