double / beaver in XG2 - Backgammon Forum - Discuss Backgammon Strategy, Clubs and Books

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Chess and Other Board Games Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.

double / beaver in XG2

Post Reply Subscribe

...

07-28-2017 , 08:58 AM

7NTXX

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 49

I'm really at a loss as to what's going on in the position regarding the cube action. Any thoughts?

Quote

07-28-2017 , 09:07 AM

7NTXX

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 49

I guess it's making more sense now - white has strong gammon chances and is way ahead in the race.

White also has a lot of rolls that aren't productive, and things can go pear shaped very quickly for him.

Interesting position. Who would do the right thing over the board?

Quote

07-28-2017 , 01:10 PM

Popeye

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 453

If I am correct positions like this is are called the 'Kauder Paradox'.
Maybe that is helpful if you want to search about these kind of positions on google.

Quote

07-29-2017 , 10:47 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

The Kauder Paradox idea actually predates the bots. I remember discussing this with people back in the early 80s. The idea is that you have a position where you're an underdog to win but when things go well you have good gammon chances. If you don't double, your equity is some negative number. If you do double you activate your gammons, so your equity is still negative, but now much less negative. Since it's still negative, however, your opponent can beaver.

This position actually isn't a Kauder Paradox position. I did a long rollout and it changed the evaluation from Double-Beaver to No Double-Beaver. But it's close.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...