Quote:
it's like you're throwing away all the extra equity you get on gammons by doubling.
Here's a way to think about this that some might find useful. Say you set up a position at this score where White has a close take and Black wins 0% gammons. Obviously this is a good time for Black to double, and if the position is reasonably volatile, it's going to be a pretty big error for Black to not double.
But now modify the position, so White's win % stays the same, but now Black wins a few % gammons (and the overall volatility of the position stays about the same). What happens the size of the error of not doubling?
It actually goes down. Because now some of the time, when Black wins a gammon, doubling doesn't actually help him, and doubling and losing the game hurts him just as bad.
Up the gammon % a little more (still keeping White's winning % the same), the error size goes down some more. Up the gammon % enough and the error "flips". It actually becomes an error to double, even though White still has the same close take!
Understanding this stuff on some level is key to handling the cube well when nearing the end of a match.
Last edited by _Z_; 03-18-2016 at 05:31 PM.