Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Why do people keep making this mathematical error?
By this I assume you mean that the conditional probability of A Christian God existing given that a miracle like event has occurred is greater than than the probability without such an event. I am not convinced this is as clear cut as you imply.
For instance the conclusion I draw from a confirmed miracle like event is that our understanding of science is serious flawed. Our methods of making predictive models from past experience is not working as expected, this will result in a reduction in the confidence that we can make any assertion about what we experience, including the existence of figures from fantasy. At least until we can create new models to encamps recent experience.
For me the slack produced by the reduction in the probability of just about anything previously believed is taken up by “something I don't understand and can't model yet” rather than A Christian God. It is possible that by careful analyses of new empirical evidence I or others like me might build up a robust model that incorporates a figure with many traits that coincide with those associated with A Christian God. Although it will be best to label it with another name to avoid confusion.
Another viewpoint might be that the probability of a typical fantasy character like The Christian God existing is so small, that say doubling it has no practical meaning. That the numbers involved are so close to zero that the use of probability theory here is an ineffective model with no empirical backing.