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Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory

05-27-2013 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
But he is not saving as many as possible to remain hidden. I don't see statisticians stating that tragedies are right on the lowest end of what is expected.
Adding to my thoughts in post #49. Your idea of allowable exposure and God's idea of allowable exposure may be quite different. So any proof you might believe you have that he is not maxed out with respect to your idea of allowable exposure would not necessarily apply to the actual level of allowable exposure desired according to God's wisdom. Plus it's likely not possible in the first place for you to think of all the ways God knows about whereby such exposure can happen.

Furthermore, your idea here doesn't address the other point in my original post whereby saving schoolchildren en masse would be a much worse strategy for staying hidden than saving people with as much diversity as possible. Even if you could prove the likely unprovable idea that God is not maxed out with respect to his idea of allowable exposure, all that would imply is that he ought to be saving more people according to the best strategy of diversity. Saving schoolchildren en masse would blow his cover faster. And where would you be if he had had to cut back on tweeking nature to save David Sklansky's life all those times?

/following your premises.


PairTheBoard
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-27-2013 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PairTheBoard
That's a tricky twist, but how well does the logic really hold up? First, if statisticians noticed that tragedies were consistenly at the lowest end of what is expected they would conclude something's amiss. If they had an expected range for tragedies they would expect the rate of tragedies to vary over that range. If the rate instead held at the low end of the range the statisticians might come to suspect divine intervention preventing normal variance. Maybe God can do it in some way that fools those statisticians, but keeping tragedies at the low end of what is expected would not be it.

Furthermore, it might be that statisticians figure whatever the tragedy rate is is what it's suppose to be. So they would never notice anything amiss and God could intervene an unlimited amount without bothering them. However, statisticians are not the only people paying attention. If God were to intervene without limit some people would wonder why we're so lucky. The rumor would spread that it must be God intervening. So God can not intervene without limit and still stay hidden. And we have no idea how much intervention it would take to pass the critical point that sets off enough people to blow his cover. So there's no reason, on these grounds, to think God isn't maxed out already.

It's very hard to track down all unintended consequences. Just because you've looked and found all you can doesn't mean you've found them all. I don't have to find more to tell you there may be more.



PairTheBoard
You think that explanation is more likely than the four possibilities I gave in the OP?
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-27-2013 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
You think that explanation is more likely than the four possibilities I gave in the OP?
Under your assumptions i think it would be far more likely God would save people according to a strategy of diversity rather than a dumb one that draws attention to himself like saving schoolchildren en masse. As I explained further in post 51.

Post 51 - PairTheBoard
---------------------------

Adding to my thoughts in post #49. Your idea of allowable exposure and God's idea of allowable exposure may be quite different. So any proof you might believe you have that he is not maxed out with respect to your idea of allowable exposure would not necessarily apply to the actual level of allowable exposure desired according to God's wisdom. Plus it's likely not possible in the first place for you to think of all the ways God knows about whereby such exposure can happen.

Furthermore, your idea here doesn't address the other point in my original post whereby saving schoolchildren en masse would be a much worse strategy for staying hidden than saving people with as much diversity as possible. Even if you could prove the likely unprovable idea that God is not maxed out with respect to his idea of allowable exposure, all that would imply is that he ought to be saving more people according to the best strategy of diversity. Saving schoolchildren en masse would blow his cover faster. And where would you be if he had had to cut back on tweeking nature to save David Sklansky's life all those times?
--------------------------


PairTheBoard
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-27-2013 , 11:05 PM
God is not the one saving them, he is the one killing them, well i guess he is sparing them rather than saving them.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 11:04 AM
There is a fundamental assumption within many of the comments here that if God allows someone (child or otherwise) to die, then He is harming them. Certainly if a man allows or causes someone to die that is a reasonable assumption given our point of view. But for God assuming He exists and that there is an afterlife, that basic assumption does not hold. For God and for the deceased it is not harm at all, again under the assumption that God exists. But one must use that assumption if one is trying to demonstrate an inconsistency within the concept of God. This entire thread is logically flawed. Am I the only one who sees that?

If you want to have some kind of valid point, your only try is to focus on the pain suffered by those left behind. That is real and is the result of the deaths. Then at least you have a debate.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 11:23 AM
You kind of have a point, but you could take it one step further back and say, if theres a god and an afterlife, why did he bother with a life at all, why not just start straight at the afterlife.

Are you saying that, because you have an infinity of bliss( or non suffering, at least) then a lifetime of suffering doesnt matter?
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 12:59 PM
This OP is really just a tweeked version of the problem of evil/suffering. The answer to this problem given by God to Job in the Old Testament is probably still about as good as any. If you accept it then all the tweeking of the problem makes no difference. If you don't accept it you don't really need any tweeking.

It looks like masque de z has nothing on the Lord once He gets started.

Job 38-42
Revised Standard Version (RSV)

38: Then the Lord answered Job out of the whirlwind:

2 “Who is this that darkens counsel by words without knowledge?
3 Gird up your loins like a man,
I will question you, and you shall declare to me.

4 “Where were you when I laid the foundation of the earth?
Tell me, if you have understanding.
5 Who determined its measurements—surely you know!
Or who stretched the line upon it?
6 On what were its bases sunk,
or who laid its cornerstone,
7 when the morning stars sang together,
and all the sons of God shouted for joy?

8 “Or who shut in the sea with doors,
when it burst forth from the womb;
9 when I made clouds its garment,
and thick darkness its swaddling band,
10 and prescribed bounds for it,
and set bars and doors,
11 and said, ‘Thus far shall you come, and no farther,
and here shall your proud waves be stayed’?

12 “Have you commanded the morning since your days began,
and caused the dawn to know its place,
13 that it might take hold of the skirts of the earth,
and the wicked be shaken out of it?
14 It is changed like clay under the seal,
and it is dyed[a] like a garment.
15 From the wicked their light is withheld,
and their uplifted arm is broken.

16 “Have you entered into the springs of the sea,
or walked in the recesses of the deep?
17 Have the gates of death been revealed to you,
or have you seen the gates of deep darkness?
18 Have you comprehended the expanse of the earth?
Declare, if you know all this.

19 “Where is the way to the dwelling of light,
and where is the place of darkness,
20 that you may take it to its territory
and that you may discern the paths to its home?
21 You know, for you were born then,
and the number of your days is great!

22 “Have you entered the storehouses of the snow,
or have you seen the storehouses of the hail,
23 which I have reserved for the time of trouble,
for the day of battle and war?
24 What is the way to the place where the light is distributed,
or where the east wind is scattered upon the earth?

25 “Who has cleft a channel for the torents of rain,
and a way for the thunderbolt,
26 to bring rain on a land where no man is,
on the desert in which there is no man;
27 to satisfy the waste and desolate land,
and to make the ground put forth grass?

28 “Has the rain a father,
or who has begotten the drops of dew?
29 From whose womb did the ice come forth,
and who has given birth to the hoarfrost of heaven?
30 The waters become hard like stone,
and the face of the deep is frozen.

31 “Can you bind the chains of the Plei′ades,
or loose the cords of Orion?
32 Can you lead forth the Maz′zaroth in their season,
or can you guide the Bear with its children?
33 Do you know the ordinances of the heavens?
Can you establish their rule on the earth?

34 “Can you lift up your voice to the clouds,
that a flood of waters may cover you?
35 Can you send forth lightnings, that they may go
and say to you, ‘Here we are’?
36 Who has put wisdom in the clouds,[b]
or given understanding to the mists?[c]
37 Who can number the clouds by wisdom?
Or who can tilt the waterskins of the heavens,
38 when the dust runs into a mass
and the clods cleave fast together?

39 “Can you hunt the prey for the lion,
or satisfy the appetite of the young lions,
40 when they crouch in their dens,
or lie in wait in their covert?
41 Who provides for the raven its prey,
when its young ones cry to God,
and wander about for lack of food?


39: “Do you know when the mountain goats bring forth?
Do you observe the calving of the hinds?
2 Can you number the months that they fulfil,
and do you know the time when they bring forth,
3 when they crouch, bring forth their offspring,
and are delivered of their young?
4 Their young ones become strong, they grow up in the open;
they go forth, and do not return to them.

5 “Who has let the wild ass go free?
Who has loosed the bonds of the swift ass,
6 to whom I have given the steppe for his home,
and the salt land for his dwelling place?
7 He scorns the tumult of the city;
he hears not the shouts of the driver.
8 He ranges the mountains as his pasture,
and he searches after every green thing.

9 “Is the wild ox willing to serve you?
Will he spend the night at your crib?
10 Can you bind him in the furrow with ropes,
or will he harrow the valleys after you?
11 Will you depend on him because his strength is great,
and will you leave to him your labor?
12 Do you have faith in him that he will return,
and bring your grain to your threshing floor?[a]

13 “The wings of the ostrich wave proudly;
but are they the pinions and plumage of love?[b]
14 For she leaves her eggs to the earth,
and lets them be warmed on the ground,
15 forgetting that a foot may crush them,
and that the wild beast may trample them.
16 She deals cruelly with her young, as if they were not hers;
though her labor be in vain, yet she has no fear;
17 because God has made her forget wisdom,
and given her no share in understanding.
18 When she rouses herself to flee,[c]
she laughs at the horse and his rider.

19 “Do you give the horse his might?
Do you clothe his neck with strength?[d]
20 Do you make him leap like the locust?
His majestic snorting is terrible.
21 He paws[e] in the valley, and exults in his strength;
he goes out to meet the weapons.
22 He laughs at fear, and is not dismayed;
he does not turn back from the sword.
23 Upon him rattle the quiver,
the flashing spear and the javelin.
24 With fierceness and rage he swallows the ground;
he cannot stand still at the sound of the trumpet.
25 When the trumpet sounds, he says ‘Aha!’
He smells the battle from afar,
the thunder of the captains, and the shouting.

26 “Is it by your wisdom that the hawk soars,
and spreads his wings toward the south?
27 Is it at your command that the eagle mounts up
and makes his nest on high?
28 On the rock he dwells and makes his home
in the fastness of the rocky crag.
29 Thence he spies out the prey;
his eyes behold it afar off.
30 His young ones suck up blood;
and where the slain are, there is he.”

40: And the Lord said to Job:

2 “Shall a faultfinder contend with the Almighty?
He who argues with God, let him answer it.”

3 Then Job answered the Lord:
4 “Behold, I am of small account; what shall I answer thee?
I lay my hand on my mouth.
5 I have spoken once, and I will not answer;
twice, but I will proceed no further.”

6 Then the Lord answered Job out of the whirlwind:

7 “Gird up your loins like a man;
I will question you, and you declare to me.
8 Will you even put me in the wrong?
Will you condemn me that you may be justified?
9 Have you an arm like God,
and can you thunder with a voice like his?

10 “Deck yourself with majesty and dignity;
clothe yourself with glory and splendor.
11 Pour forth the overflowings of your anger,
and look on every one that is proud, and abase him.
12 Look on every one that is proud, and bring him low;
and tread down the wicked where they stand.
13 Hide them all in the dust together;
bind their faces in the world below.[a]
14 Then will I also acknowledge to you,
that your own right hand can give you victory.

15 “Behold, Be′hemoth,[b]
which I made as I made you;
he eats grass like an ox.
16 Behold, his strength in his loins,
and his power in the muscles of his belly.
17 He makes his tail stiff like a cedar;
the sinews of his thighs are knit together.
18 His bones are tubes of bronze,
his limbs like bars of iron.

19 “He is the first of the works[c] of God;
let him who made him bring near his sword!
20 For the mountains yield food for him
where all the wild beasts play.
21 Under the lotus plants he lies,
in the covert of the reeds and in the marsh.
22 For his shade the lotus trees cover him;
the willows of the brook surround him.
23 Behold, if the river is turbulent he is not frightened;
he is confident though Jordan rushes against his mouth.
24 Can one take him with hooks,[d]
or pierce his nose with a snare?

41: “Can you draw out Levi′athan[b] with a fishhook,
or press down his tongue with a cord?
2 Can you put a rope in his nose,
or pierce his jaw with a hook?
3 Will he make many supplications to you?
Will he speak to you soft words?
4 Will he make a covenant with you
to take him for your servant for ever?
5 Will you play with him as with a bird,
or will you put him on leash for your maidens?
6 Will traders bargain over him?
Will they divide him up among the merchants?
7 Can you fill his skin with harpoons,
or his head with fishing spears?
8 Lay hands on him;
think of the battle; you will not do it again!
9 [c] Behold, the hope of a man is disappointed;
he is laid low even at the sight of him.
10 No one is so fierce that he dares to stir him up.
Who then is he that can stand before me?
11 Who has given to me,[d] that I should repay him?
Whatever is under the whole heaven is mine.

12 “I will not keep silence concerning his limbs,
or his mighty strength, or his goodly frame.
13 Who can strip off his outer garment?
Who can penetrate his double coat of mail?[e]
14 Who can open the doors of his face?
Round about his teeth is terror.
15 His back[f] is made of rows of shields,
shut up closely as with a seal.
16 One is so near to another
that no air can come between them.
17 They are joined one to another;
they clasp each other and cannot be separated.
18 His sneezings flash forth light,
and his eyes are like the eyelids of the dawn.
19 Out of his mouth go flaming torches;
sparks of fire leap forth.
20 Out of his nostrils comes forth smoke,
as from a boiling pot and burning rushes.
21 His breath kindles coals,
and a flame comes forth from his mouth.
22 In his neck abides strength,
and terror dances before him.
23 The folds of his flesh cleave together,
firmly cast upon him and immovable.
24 His heart is hard as a stone,
hard as the nether millstone.
25 When he raises himself up the mighty[g] are afraid;
at the crashing they are beside themselves.
26 Though the sword reaches him, it does not avail;
nor the spear, the dart, or the javelin.
27 He counts iron as straw,
and bronze as rotten wood.
28 The arrow cannot make him flee;
for him slingstones are turned to stubble.
29 Clubs are counted as stubble;
he laughs at the rattle of javelins.
30 His underparts are like sharp potsherds;
he spreads himself like a threshing sledge on the mire.
31 He makes the deep boil like a pot;
he makes the sea like a pot of ointment.
32 Behind him he leaves a shining wake;
one would think the deep to be hoary.
33 Upon earth there is not his like,
a creature without fear.
34 He beholds everything that is high;
he is king over all the sons of pride.”

42: Then Job answered the Lord:

2 “I know that thou canst do all things,
and that no purpose of thine can be thwarted.
3 ‘Who is this that hides counsel without knowledge?’
Therefore I have uttered what I did not understand,
things too wonderful for me, which I did not know.
4 ‘Hear, and I will speak;
I will question you, and you declare to me.’
5 I had heard of thee by the hearing of the ear,
but now my eye sees thee;
6 therefore I despise myself,
and repent in dust and ashes.”

7 After the Lord had spoken these words to Job, the Lord said to Eli′phaz the Te′manite: “My wrath is kindled against you and against your two friends; for you have not spoken of me what is right, as my servant Job has. 8 Now therefore take seven bulls and seven rams, and go to my servant Job, and offer up for yourselves a burnt offering; and my servant Job shall pray for you, for I will accept his prayer not to deal with you according to your folly; for you have not spoken of me what is right, as my servant Job has.” 9 So Eli′phaz the Te′manite and Bildad the Shuhite and Zophar the Na′amathite went and did what the Lord had told them; and the Lord accepted Job’s prayer.

10 And the Lord restored the fortunes of Job, when he had prayed for his friends; and the Lord gave Job twice as much as he had before. 11 Then came to him all his brothers and sisters and all who had known him before, and ate bread with him in his house; and they showed him sympathy and comforted him for all the evil that the Lord had brought upon him; and each of them gave him a piece of money[a] and a ring of gold. 12 And the Lord blessed the latter days of Job more than his beginning; and he had fourteen thousand sheep, six thousand camels, a thousand yoke of oxen, and a thousand she-asses. 13 He had also seven sons and three daughters. 14 And he called the name of the first Jemi′mah; and the name of the second Kezi′ah; and the name of the third Ker′en-hap′puch. 15 And in all the land there were no women so fair as Job’s daughters; and their father gave them inheritance among their brothers. 16 And after this Job lived a hundred and forty years, and saw his sons, and his sons’ sons, four generations. 17 And Job died, an old man, and full of days.
----------------------------------------


PairTheBoard
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RLK
There is a fundamental assumption within many of the comments here that if God allows someone (child or otherwise) to die, then He is harming them. Certainly if a man allows or causes someone to die that is a reasonable assumption given our point of view. But for God assuming He exists and that there is an afterlife, that basic assumption does not hold. For God and for the deceased it is not harm at all, again under the assumption that God exists. But one must use that assumption if one is trying to demonstrate an inconsistency within the concept of God. This entire thread is logically flawed. Am I the only one who sees that?

If you want to have some kind of valid point, your only try is to focus on the pain suffered by those left behind. That is real and is the result of the deaths. Then at least you have a debate.
All true. But the thread isn't logically flawed it need not be about death as you yourself point out. It is about people who somehow think that God does miracles but takes extreme care that the miracles are not overwhelming evidence to non believers.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 02:45 PM
From the website for Moore schools it shows 23 elementary schools in the area.

Moore Schools Website

How would it look if the tornado had devastated everything around them but left all those 23 schools untouched? As it was, many children survived. On the news last night was a gathering of the students from (I believe) Bryant elementary where every child survived.


PairTheBoard
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Except that there are plenty of tragedies that God can't stop because of the aforementioned restrictions on stopping free will or obviously showing himself. Why not save a few school children when he can get away with it?
How do you know he isn't?

For everyone saying "well it would be obvious if all the schools were saved", I think DS's point was "well what if just a few more schools were saved, because God has standard deviations to play with before the data becomes meaningful or before a pattern emerged". But if I'm understanding correctly... if that were the case, there would be no way to tell pretty much by definition. Like maybe schools are running super bad right now and half of those are getting nudged.

Last edited by bixby snyder; 05-28-2013 at 07:45 PM.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 10:20 PM
I'm sure it's already been said, but maybe those school kids have it luckier than we know. Yeah it must be terrible to die in a tornado (eek) but people die all the time.

Don't really blame God for it. Or I do. Hmm. HMMMM.

Main point being most people who are alive are going to over-dramatize death. It's just a part of the cycle. Everyone has hardships.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-28-2013 , 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
All true. But the thread isn't logically flawed it need not be about death as you yourself point out. It is about people who somehow think that God does miracles but takes extreme care that the miracles are not overwhelming evidence to non believers.
I was taking the thread as cast in the OP and as the bulk of the responders approached it.



Quote:
Since schools have been hit and children have died is it because:

1. God doesn't have the power to nudge them?

2. God doesn't care where they go?

3. God has some reason to cause that destruction?
I agree with you that concealment is probably not the most compelling explanation for the presence of suffering in our lives. But I would also insist that it is not ruled out. IMO assuming God, concealment is one element of a package that is probably much more complicated.

4. There is no God?
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-31-2013 , 08:59 AM
5) Its not a bad thing
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-31-2013 , 09:18 AM
Sorry, that last line was not supposed to be part of my post. It was part of the list in DS's original post and I managed to drop it from the quote box. I didn't see the error until the edit window had closed.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
05-31-2013 , 11:36 PM
What can we divine from almost as bad tornados in almost exactly the same place under 2 weeks?
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-01-2013 , 12:13 AM
That those wicked people did not learn the first time to STOP masturbating HE is watching!
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-01-2013 , 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smrk2
What can we divine from almost as bad tornados in almost exactly the same place under 2 weeks?
Obviously, there are more people praying against the city than are praying for the city. God is merely responding to prayers in a democratic manner.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 09:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Clearly the free will argument is not applicable. Tornados don't have free will. Less obvious is the fact that where a tornado strikes cannot be accurately predicted by human beings! Not even with a supercomputer yet to be built. Its the famous butterfly effect. (And of course there is also the quantum uncertainty which makes the point even stronger).

Without arguing over the science I would simply suggest that almost nudging a tornado out of the way of children's schools could be done without ever worrying that a scientist will see that and start believing in God for the wrong reasons.
I haven't seen this addressed yet, but "without arguing over the science", it appears that you view the underlying connection is somewhat one-dimensional insofar as it suggests God could just let a butterfly flap once more in a unobserved part of teh earth to sway the tornado-in-forming sufficiently to not hit a childrens school. Perhaps. But if indeed a butterfly flap can result in a changed tornado-course, then so can anything else happening in that rough vicinity: people sneezing, taking/not taking the car for a short drive to the grocery store etc. Here, it appears to me, free will re-enteres in a non-neglectable manner.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
But if indeed a butterfly flap can result in a changed tornado-course, then so can anything else happening in that rough vicinity: people sneezing, taking/not taking the car for a short drive to the grocery store etc.
your if-then claim is not true. Chaotic systems don't have to be equally sensitive to all initial conditions.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 02:59 PM
I didn't say the HAVE to. I said they can.

The original example of Tornado hinged on the specific idea that God would just have to nudge a tiny bit early to get a sufficient nudge in direction later (otherwise we're back to asking "Why doesn't god stop the collapsing bridge in mid-air). The sexyness of that idea is based on the fact that it undercuts the objection that god doesn't blatantly interject himself into the course of nature, so to speak, yet would enable him to save at least the little 'uns.

I'm not a physicist, but it seems that either that idea (tiny influence early CAN result in big changes later) is roughly correct - but then it applies for potentially infinite tiny influences early on, some of them likely results of human interactions with nature. Here, assuming humans have free will, it is conceivable (if not necessary) that God, isn't "quick enough", so to speak, to continually preemptively counteract the human interactions in a way to sufficiently accurately sway the course of the Tornado.

Or it is not correct. If so, then the premise of the OP seems to wither away.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fretelöo
I didn't say the HAVE to. I said they can.
yea, that's the part that is wrong.

"if a butterfly can cause a tornado then so can a sneeze" - is not a true statement, even allowing that the sneeze only 'can' cause a tornado, not that it 'has' to start a tornado.

The reason its incorrect is because nothing is known about how the butterfly caused the tornado. maybe its because the air motion is downard, maybe its cause its slow, or maybe it causes a swirly effect. Either way, you cannot lump together all small changes, and claim that changing any other small thing can cause a similar result - because you don't actually know whether your substitutions are significant in the same manner as the first tiny change.

or to back to the example, maybe it would be impossible for a sneeze to cause the chain of events to create a tornado because of the moisture or because the speed is too high or something.

you can't just substitute any tiny change unless you actually understand the relevant mechanism. Chaotic systems aren't generally susceptible to all changes equally, they can be very sensitive to some changes while robust to others. it may be true that sneezes and car doors etc do also work, but you would need additional assumptions or evidence, comparison to butterflies isn't enough.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RollWave
you can't just substitute any tiny change unless you actually understand the relevant mechanism.
This is a pretty bad analysis. The initial butterfly claim does not come with a description of the "relevant mechanism." So it makes no sense to force an analogous claim to meet a standard that the initial claim did not itself meet.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 03:41 PM
^^what he said, while adding that the initial example was presented rather off-handish. My counter was intended as a counter only in the same off-handish fashion. Regarding this type of question as a whole, I'm with heinesy_2k.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
This is a pretty bad analysis. The initial butterfly claim does not come with a description of the "relevant mechanism." So it makes no sense to force an analogous claim to meet a standard that the initial claim did not itself meet.
There is a significant difference between 'a small change can..' and 'any small change can...'. you can't substitute 'any' for 'a' just because you never fully described 'a'.

if he's just changing the assumption from 'a' to 'any', that's fine. But "if 'a', then 'any'" doesn't work.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote
06-03-2013 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RollWave
There is a significant difference between 'a small change can..' and 'any small change can...'. you can't substitute 'any' for 'a' just because you never fully described 'a'.

if he's just changing the assumption from 'a' to 'any', that's fine. But "if 'a', then 'any'" doesn't work.
On some sort of narrow-minded strict analysis, you're correct. The mechanism could be subject to ONLY the motion of butterflies with absolutely no other potential source of large scale changes in the system.

But that's a terrible way of analyzing it. Basically, you've created an assumption with artificially strong implicit claims, and then you're trying to use those implicit claims to make an explicit criticism of a similar claim.
Tornados Free Will and Chaos Theory Quote

      
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