Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl Ikon
What are the chances of the following being true:
The Marcionites invented Christianity
Less than 1%. The textual evidence doesn't fit the hypothesis at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl Ikon
The Romans (according to Joseph Atwill) invented Jesus
I wasn't familiar with this, but a quick perusal suggests less than 1%. Cf. Carrier's (a fellow mythicist)
rebuttal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl Ikon
The Gnostics already believed in the Logos but it was the literalists that inserted a fictional Jesus into the Logos slot
I'm not sure this is specific enough to attach a probability to. "The gnostics" is a bit fuzzy, there were different sects at different times. However it seems difficult to make sense of. Jewish gnosticism pre-dates Christianity, but the earliest Christian texts don't seem very gnostic. John's logos isn't enough to me to call him gnostic. The gnostics appear to borrow from John (and from Greek philosophy, as John appears to have been doing) rather than the other way around.
It seems more likely that early Christianity both influenced gnostics and was influenced by them than that Christianity arose from strictly gnostic sources. In the same way that there seems to be influences between Christianity and Neoplatonism but I wouldn't call the one the source of the other.
I do actually think there is a non-trivial probability of some kind of mythicist position being correct, I just don't think "Marcion invented Christianity" or Atwil's conspiracy are at all likely to be true. I would grade it like this:
It is absolutely the case that the gospels are "mythology" (which doesn't mean just "false") -- they aren't histories, they don't faithfully record the historical happenings of one Jesus of Nazareth. Some of the gospel myth may be based (however loosely) on events that happened, but certainly not everything
I think that it's easier to make sense of early Christianity by positing some historical charismatic figure (e.g. Ehrman's "Jewish apocalyptic prophet") upon whom the gospel stories are based than by positing an entirely mythological Jesus. It's more parsimonious. But that doesn't mean it's
impossible that Jesus was entirely mythicized. There's just not really enough evidence to confidently decide. It just seems more likely than not that he wasn't. If he was, I don't think we have nearly enough information to confidently assert that it happened in some particular way, as Atwil does or in terms of the Marcionite hypothesis.
My problem with Carrier (as an example of an academic mythicist) is that his method is silly. He masks the dubious subjectivity of his priors by impressing the non-mathematically-inclined with the use of a bayesian framework. It's a sleight-oh-hand.
Nevertheless, he's right that the mythological elements in the gospel stories don't exist in a vacuum, they are similar to other myths. This shouldn't seem unexpected, I don't think, whether there was any historical Jesus or not.