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Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals

03-11-2016 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Congratulations, Uke!
I'll be sure to join #MightybooshFanClub and respond to every comment of his anyways!
Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Quote
03-11-2016 , 03:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Most people who are angry are angry that the present is not like a past that didn't actually exist. I think this has been called "nostalgia politics."



Most of the nostalgia is tied to a conservative suburban America world placed in the 1950s/60s. Leave it to Beaver stuff. There is some religion there, with the church-going culture showing up every Sunday morning in their nice clothes and things like that. This is what conservative America believes America should be like. And since most Evangelicals are conservative, there's a strong correlation there.



And there is very much a religious backdrop. But it's not so much about Christianity as it is about the general culture that "respects" religion. And that's where we see bits of anger from the Evangelicals who support Trump. They feel that the picture of America that's in their heads has been under attack for a long time.



The part of the analysis that goes wrong from MB is that he wants to claim that religion itself is playing a more significant role in this picture than what others think. That somehow, BECAUSE people are religious, they are more inclined to follow Trump (as Trump somehow represents a defender of Christianity, based on that speech that was given at Liberty University).



The data is definitely showing anger, but religious anger is pretty far down the list. People are not flocking to Trump as a defender of Christianity, but a defender of conservative America (a small part of which is Christianity).



So basically, he's holding tight to a "not wrong" idea, but he's doing his familiar thing of over-inflating the reality ("thanks mainly due to religion") and is having a hard time backing it down in a way where he still gets to believe he was right the entire time.

Religious can be be applied too narrowly as a generalization. Kind of novel so long as more details are added to qualify where the elements connect with religion.

I listen to local conservatives in Alabama, who openly contest non-religious people as credible. It's not just nostalgia where the angers lies, but it also anger for those who contest and reject that religious viewpoint of having some Godly authority over others. Which can translate into a more general disposition as appeal to take charge over people as sinners or outsiders or somebody to be afraid of.

Hence the authoritarian mentality, fear and anger, is nondenominational, but we can point to details and influences that call the question of a relationship with religion.
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03-11-2016 , 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spanktehbadwookie
I listen to local conservatives in Alabama, who openly contest non-religious people as credible. It's not just nostalgia where the angers lies, but it also anger for those who contest and reject that religious viewpoint of having some Godly authority over others. Which can translate into a more general disposition as appeal to take charge over people as sinners or outsiders or somebody to be afraid of.
I agree that this is true for some (and it would be interesting if any of these voted for Trump). You see similar echoes of authoritarianism in the FLDS areas. You've almost got mob rule in some of those groups:

http://q13fox.com/2016/03/08/crackdo...-blow-to-flds/

But I don't believe that either the subset of "local conservatives" you're listening to or the FLDS is representative of the larger population. (Also, are you listening to radio call-in shows to hear those "local conservatives"? That would be a strong sign of a biased sampling happening.)
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03-11-2016 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightyboosh
It's not analysis, it's simply a perspective.

If the evangelical vote was the difference between him winning and losing, then yes, you could say that he won because of them. What makes it worthy of note is that it's a voting block he can't expect a lot of support from, which distinguishes them from the voters you would expect to vote for him. Likewise with Trump. Or you could simply treat each voting demographic as equal to all the others, none worthy of comment in how they choose to vote, but in practice we don't do that do we. One block of voters can swing an election one way or the other, and that's what might be happening here.
Here's something you can say that would not bother me: I'm surprised that Trump is getting as much support from evangelical voters as he is.

But you didn't say that. Instead, you suggested that Trump's potential nomination was "thanks mainly to religion." You were using this as an example of the negative effects of religion. But imagine this. Let's say that 95% of religious people voted for Cloned Abraham Lincoln and only 5% voted for Donald Trump, but yet Donald Trump won with a narrow enough margin that if that last 5% had voted for Cloned Abraham Lincoln, Trump would have lost.

This doesn't show a negative effect of religion. The solution here would clearly be more religion, not less (that is, if more people were religious, there is less chance of Trump being elected in this hypothetical). These are exaggerated numbers, but something like this is probably true of the GOP race as well--that the more religious a person is the less likely they are to vote for Trump. Thus, if voting for Trump is bad, then more religion would be good.

But yet you used this as an example of the negative effects of religion. Perhaps you should understand why people are having difficulty understanding what you are trying to say here--and think what you seemed to say is wrong.

Quote:
Oh come on OrP... You can agree that I find it ridiculous, since I do, but the rest of that post is silly.

The American constitution protects religious freedoms, it shouldn't make any difference at all to voters what the religious beliefs of candidates are because what matters is their suitability for the job of running the country and their religious beliefs are irrelevant to that, they could be Hindu or Muslim, or atheist, or whatever.
Okay.

I'll just point out that evangelical voters supported Romney in the 2012 general election even though he is not an evangelical Christian.

Quote:
I notice that you didn't comment on the fact that I find it ridiculous that there is such a thing as the 'black' vote, and the 'Hispanic' vote. Do people with the same colour skin all vote the same way too in the US such that it's worth giving that a demographic distinction? or is this just another manifestation of the racism that is rampant in American culture.
Huh? How am I supposed to comment on something you didn't say? And yes, the black vote is one of the most monolithic voting blocs in American politics. And, it has been a major topic of conversation on the Democratic side, with Bernie's inability to appeal to African-Americans being cited by many as the one of the main reasons he will likely lose.
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03-11-2016 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
I agree that this is true for some (and it would be interesting if any of these voted for Trump). You see similar echoes of authoritarianism in the FLDS areas. You've almost got mob rule in some of those groups:



http://q13fox.com/2016/03/08/crackdo...-blow-to-flds/



But I don't believe that either the subset of "local conservatives" you're listening to or the FLDS is representative of the larger population. (Also, are you listening to radio call-in shows to hear those "local conservatives"? That would be a strong sign of a biased sampling happening.)
Sure, and it would make for no presupposition towards the amount of people of which I have listened as well. I have no statistical claim to make here of a qualified influenced by demagogic or pundit type speech behavior that is most certainly happening towards various audiences.

I am saying that listening to people reveals there is a range of thinking behind why they are mad or afraid and some of that thinking connects to religious dogma, some of that thinking connects with authoritarian qualities, some of that thinking connects with both.
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03-13-2016 , 02:39 PM
A very critical distinction has been missed in all of this discussion. Party platforms are a litmus test for the candidates, not a way to encourage people to vote for a particular candidate. Actually, the only power of the litmus test to find out who the Party is not going to give the nomination. Everyone on this forum understands that both Parties have a list of Commandments that have to be adhered to before a candidate can be considered.
So, is Trump going to win the nomination “because” of evangelists?… no. Is Trump a viable Republican candidate without a connection to evangelism (whether genuine or not)?… no. Trump is garnering votes because of the platform that he has that is unique amongst the Republican candidates, but that does not mean that he will have any chance for nomination or election if he did not conform to views of the evangelist sector of the Republican party.
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03-15-2016 , 04:13 PM
President of Liberty University Jerry Falwell Jr Endorses The Donald. This has stirred some controversy I believe.

Jerry Falwell Jr. endorses trump
Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Quote
03-15-2016 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
President of Liberty University Jerry Falwell Jr Endorses The Donald. This has stirred some controversy I believe.

Jerry Falwell Jr. endorses trump
Indeed:

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/...rsement-trump/
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03-22-2016 , 05:35 PM
I don't think there's lot of value for creating a second thread specifically for Trump and Mormons, so I'm just putting these links here:

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/20...-donald-trump/

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins...why#.sedD6DmaD

I tend to view this as the same type of effect as what religious Evangelicals. We just have a much cleaner labeling game with Mormons. You simply don't have the same "culturally Christian" effect with Mormons (self-identifying as Christian without necessarily holding beliefs consistent with Christian statements of faith), so that you get much cleaner data that points to the connection between religiosity and voting patterns.

Also, more data on Mormons: http://www.pewforum.org/2012/01/12/m...utive-summary/

Note: Utah caucuses close at 10 PM Pacific time. We'll see how strongly this analysis and polling play out.
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03-23-2016 , 11:37 AM
Where I come from, when you come after one religion, you come after them all. Having a religion is a human right as mental freedom is an inherent right from attribute of a conscious capable thinker.

Does this justify treating Trump and Cruz (and their followers) as a cult, rather than legitimate religion?
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03-23-2016 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
Here's something you can say that would not bother me: I'm surprised that Trump is getting as much support from evangelical voters as he is.
Ok, but I think it's more significant than that, that there's an effect from that support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
But you didn't say that. Instead, you suggested that Trump's potential nomination was "thanks mainly to religion." You were using this as an example of the negative effects of religion. But imagine this. Let's say that 95% of religious people voted for Cloned Abraham Lincoln and only 5% voted for Donald Trump, but yet Donald Trump won with a narrow enough margin that if that last 5% had voted for Cloned Abraham Lincoln, Trump would have lost.

This doesn't show a negative effect of religion. The solution here would clearly be more religion, not less (that is, if more people were religious, there is less chance of Trump being elected in this hypothetical). These are exaggerated numbers, but something like this is probably true of the GOP race as well--that the more religious a person is the less likely they are to vote for Trump. Thus, if voting for Trump is bad, then more religion would be good.

But yet you used this as an example of the negative effects of religion. Perhaps you should understand why people are having difficulty understanding what you are trying to say here--and think what you seemed to say is wrong.
It's actually more like 33% and that's a distinction that matters to my point. What I meant when I used the word 'mainly' was that religion is the the main reason that the evangelicals who are voting for Trump, the ones who could swing the election for him, and who really oughtn't to be voting for him, are doing so, i.e. for the protection they believe he will offer their beliefs. I'll agree that the wording was confusing.

I don't think the evangelicals are alone in this, I think most of Trump's supporters see in him an authoritarian figure who will protect their special interests, and that's his primary appeal, but where he appeals directly to racists, xenophobes and the anti-Islamic, the anti-PC block etc etc, his appeal to the religious is indirect. He doesn't share their views or values necessarily, but he's promised to protect them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
Huh? How am I supposed to comment on something you didn't say? And yes, the black vote is one of the most monolithic voting blocs in American politics. And, it has been a major topic of conversation on the Democratic side, with Bernie's inability to appeal to African-Americans being cited by many as the one of the main reasons he will likely lose.
Could have sworn that I said something about this but can't find it now. Thought I said it to Batair but it may have been something I typed but then removed before posting my comments. Apologies.
Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Quote
03-23-2016 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
I don't think there's lot of value for creating a second thread specifically for Trump and Mormons, so I'm just putting these links here:

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/20...-donald-trump/

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins...why#.sedD6DmaD

I tend to view this as the same type of effect as what religious Evangelicals. We just have a much cleaner labeling game with Mormons. You simply don't have the same "culturally Christian" effect with Mormons (self-identifying as Christian without necessarily holding beliefs consistent with Christian statements of faith), so that you get much cleaner data that points to the connection between religiosity and voting patterns.

Also, more data on Mormons: http://www.pewforum.org/2012/01/12/m...utive-summary/

Note: Utah caucuses close at 10 PM Pacific time. We'll see how strongly this analysis and polling play out.
Mormons are a pretty odd group demographically. Sometimes they are fairly similar to evangelicals with similar religiosity and other times they are very differnet (trump I suppose is one example as they seem to just abhor him). I've never quite followed closely enough to know what the explanation for the big differences are, but I think part of it might be that Mormons have always a been a bit of an awkward inclusion in the GOP big tent, have never felt entirely welcome, and as such are more willing to shed elements of republican orthodoxy if their socioeconomic status, education and the like pushes them away.
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03-23-2016 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightyboosh
What I meant when I used the word 'mainly' was that religion is the the main reason that the evangelicals who are voting for Trump are doing so
You can say this as many times as you want, but that doesn't make it true.
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03-23-2016 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uke_master
Mormons are a pretty odd group demographically. Sometimes they are fairly similar to evangelicals with similar religiosity and other times they are very differnet (trump I suppose is one example as they seem to just abhor him). I've never quite followed closely enough to know what the explanation for the big differences are, but I think part of it might be that Mormons have always a been a bit of an awkward inclusion in the GOP big tent, have never felt entirely welcome, and as such are more willing to shed elements of republican orthodoxy if their socioeconomic status, education and the like pushes them away.
Interesting take on the response of Mormons to Trump in The Atlantic
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03-23-2016 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Note: Utah caucuses close at 10 PM Pacific time. We'll see how strongly this analysis and polling play out.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah

At 14%, Trump outperformed expectations.
Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Quote
03-24-2016 , 12:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah

At 14%, Trump outperformed expectations.
Fivethirtyeight.com had Trump's expectation at 13.8% in their polls-only forecast.
Donald Trump Exposes the Split Between Ordinary and Elite Evangelicals Quote
03-24-2016 , 12:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dereds
Interesting take on the response of Mormons to Trump in The Atlantic
Quote:
ut for many Utahans, the businessman’s attacks on other religious groups, while popular with some, hedge uncomfortably close to the Mormon faith’s own troubled past.

Mormons—like modern-day Muslims—have a long history of being rejected by their fellow Americans because of their beliefs.
Ya this is the kind of thing I was referencing where, perhaps some of the more xenophobic threads aren't as amped up among mormons as they have experienced the other side of that more directly
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03-24-2016 , 01:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
Fivethirtyeight.com had Trump's expectation at 13.8% in their polls-only forecast.
And he was at 9.9% in the polls-plus forecast and fell from about 20% to 10% in polling in the last week or so.
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03-24-2016 , 05:24 PM
How many ways is targeting Muslims a sin or transgression ?

With regard to Ted Cruz and Trump evangelical supporters, how is it not sinful?
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05-06-2016 , 03:31 AM
I follow a lot of Christian (and Muslim) websites on facebook and I'm increasingly seeing, in light of Trump's success, arguments from devout Christians that are some version of 'Trump is a despicable man but we have a pretty bad record of discerning god's purpose so maybe he has a reason why Trump is doing so well, he has often used despicable men in the past to achieve his purpose, perhaps that's what's happening now'.

I'll admit that I didn't see that one coming but it's another reason why Trump might get elected, not because everybody who votes for him actually thinks him fit to be president, but because of some justification that they've come up based on their religious views. Living, as I do, in a country where religion and politics are almost never mixed (we've seen a bit of it from Cameron recently, and that's extremely worrying), I find this astonishing, and frightening.

He just hired a committed 'pro-lifer' as his policy director. For someone so stupid, he's not stupid.
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05-06-2016 , 04:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightyboosh
I follow a lot of Christian (and Muslim) websites on facebook and I'm increasingly seeing, in light of Trump's success, arguments from devout Christians that are some version of 'Trump is a despicable man but we have a pretty bad record of discerning god's purpose so maybe he has a reason why Trump is doing so well, he has often used despicable men in the past to achieve his purpose, perhaps that's what's happening now'.

I'll admit that I didn't see that one coming but it's another reason why Trump might get elected, not because everybody who votes for him actually thinks him fit to be president, but because of some justification that they've come up based on their religious views. Living, as I do, in a country where religion and politics are almost never mixed (we've seen a bit of it from Cameron recently, and that's extremely worrying), I find this astonishing, and frightening.

He just hired a committed 'pro-lifer' as his policy director. For someone so stupid, he's not stupid.
Just a warning to the reader: Having seen MightyBoosh's work in the RGT forum, I would caution that you can't really take his version of what Christians believe at face value. It's an ongoing battle in RGT, where he either misunderstands or mischaracterizes their positions, not sure which. But in either case, one can't rely on his statement of their positions.
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05-06-2016 , 05:52 AM
For some reason I thought this thread was in Politics or Politics Unchained. But it's RGT, so my warning was unnecessary.
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05-06-2016 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by frommagio
Just a warning to the reader: Having seen MightyBoosh's work in the RGT forum, I would caution that you can't really take his version of what Christians believe at face value. It's an ongoing battle in RGT, where he either misunderstands or mischaracterizes their positions, not sure which. But in either case, one can't rely on his statement of their positions.
Wow, what a spectacularly offensive post. You don't need to accept my word for it, spend a little time yourself in places where Christians are discussing what to do about Trump.

I'm sure there are times where I misunderstand or inadvertently misrepresent a position, but to imply that I do that purposely or that I'm untrustworthy is both wrong and uncalled for. And to actually feel the need to patronisingly 'warn' people rather than letting them judge for themselves? How presumptious of you. genuinely astonished and offended. And you weren't even in the right forum, nice work.
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05-06-2016 , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightyboosh
Wow, what a spectacularly offensive post. You don't need to accept my word for it, spend a little time yourself in places where Christians are discussing what to do about Trump.

I'm sure there are times where I misunderstand or inadvertently misrepresent a position, but to imply that I do that purposely or that I'm untrustworthy is both wrong and uncalled for. And to actually feel the need to patronisingly 'warn' people rather than letting them judge for themselves? How presumptious of you. genuinely astonished and offended. And you weren't even in the right forum, nice work.
I specifically stated that I wasn't sure whether it's misunderstanding or mischaracterization, and said nothing about your trustworthiness.

I don't read the threads by forum, so that was my mistake. As I said, in RGT you are well-known.

Last edited by frommagio; 05-06-2016 at 09:45 AM.
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05-06-2016 , 04:03 PM
So what are Christian conservative republicans doing these days?

Everything has changed with the defacto/presumptive nomination. What of the "team player" narrative from partisans who say to vote for the party nominees no matter what. It seems to put Christian republicans who think Trump is a politically convenient or fake Christian in a tough spot. How does one justify supporting some one they find fake to their religion?
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