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USA debt, will it be paid back? USA debt, will it be paid back?

07-03-2014 , 07:18 PM
unless you're locked in denial on the topic, this is the most educational half-hour you'll absorb

cliffs: "money doesn't create energy ... all models show we're at peak"

07-03-2014 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
No, it's not. It's, in fact, crippling the global economy. I can provide a few hundred links from award-winning economists and executive-level petrol geologists confirming precisely that. Unless you're comparing today's price to what it will be in 5-10 years, you're wrong. It's not cheap by any rational, relevant metric.



Solar doesn't move freight, doesn't fertilize crops, doesn't kill insects and doesn't fly businessmen all over the world. In fact, solar provides less than 1% of U.S. energy consumption. Irrelevant. ... I'm all for expanding renewable infrastructure, but let's be honest about where it's at right now, despite a decade of spiking oil price providing all the incentive it would need.



This is a little like being down 42-0, and praising a "glut of field goals" to begin the fourth-quarter comeback. It is short-term storage glut (due to transportation and refinery bottle-necks), not long-term production promise. You don't know what you're talking about. ... Abandon the "glut" buzzword, or I will destroy it.

We're still a net importer of both oil and gas, you know... And by a wide margin. 'glut'



Money printing entirely due to lack of supply! They're printing money to finance a loss in discretionary spending and liquidity as the price of energy has tripled.



Not sure what you're trying to say here. What energy? All sources? From when compared to when? If I had to guess what you're trying to say, I'd say it's likely another "cart-before-horse" rationalization. Energy affordability affects every aspect of the markets, especially food.

When the price per barrel goes up (some 500% in 12 years?), it's not like you're getting more value for what you pay. In fact, we're getting even LESS-efficient fossil fuels the more we pay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBPZ58dzjfE
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

Minute 5:00+ Oil imports dropped from about 14 million barrels a day to about 5 million barrels a day.

ww.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/01/1303584/-U-S-solar-energy-represents-74-of-all-new-eletricity-generation-in-1st-quarter-of-2014

74% of all new electricity generation is solar. It would be even lower if we stopped Chinese tariffs and ended the total cost of system credits. Total cost of system credits are horrible as it causes contractors to juice the price of systems.

http://theweek.com/speedreads/index/...the-first-time

If you read about Germany they are ahead of schedule for their 100% goal. They do it right with feed-in tariffs and the cost of installed watt is low.

http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/06/...rds-two-weeks/

You do the math $1 installed watt (DIY). 5 hours a day 30 year system 250 watt hours per mile electric car. 30 miles per gallon.

I will do it for you: $0.073 a gallon gas equivalent.

So to run your car today will cost you $0.073 per gallon or gas equivalent. The only thing preventing you is buying the electric car and installing the solar panels.

http://sunelec.com/

So I will design a system for you, take the $0.39/watt panels above and hook them to a 48V chinese true sine inverter (no battery). Modified sine should work fine for electric cars too.



http://www.ebay.com/itm/Aims-PICOGLF...item20e32bc265

http://www.ebay.com/itm/4000W-48V-pu...item25826675e2

Those average to about $.20 a watt

hook them directly lay them on ground in backyard. no need for low voltage safety circuits. inverter already has some.

Thus for $.59 a watt or about a nickel a gallon of gas equivalent you can power a leaf or tesla.

you can save even more by bypassing the inverter and going directly to the battery with a DC charge controller.

end the tariifs support free trade and the american way.
rome was not built in a day.
07-03-2014 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBPZ58dzjfE
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

Minute 5:00+ Oil imports dropped from about 14 million barrels a day to about 5 million barrels a day.
Where "about" allows for ~3-4 million barrels per day, I guess. The United States has never imported more than 11 million barrels a day. And we haven't imported 5 MBD since the mid 80s.

Your lecturer is either lying, or stupid when he insists it was ever 14 MBD. He's also lying or stupid when he insists its currently down to 5 MBD.



For your claim to be true, we'd have had to increase domestic production by 9 MBPD since the fracking boom. We haven't come close. All we've managed is about +3.3 MBD, despite enormous investment and ballooned oil price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
ww.dailykos.com/story/2014/06/01/1303584/-U-S-solar-energy-represents-74-of-all-new-eletricity-generation-in-1st-quarter-of-2014

74% of all new electricity generation is solar. It would be even lower if we stopped Chinese tariffs and ended the total cost of system credits. Total cost of system credits are horrible as it causes contractors to juice the price of systems.
While it is amusing watching an Ayn Rand worshipper use DailyKos as a source, you're still talking about <1% of total energy consumption.

Energy isn't cheap. Your numbers for oil production are dead wrong.

Considering the rest of your post didn't really address anything I challenged you with, I'll assume you have no argument besides "look over there!"

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-03-2014 at 11:56 PM.
07-04-2014 , 03:08 AM


Source: U.S. Energy Information

Solar energy might only produce 0.75%, however it is a large source of new electricity. The reality is if you do it yourself a $2 per watt installation is easy. Now I say it will be higher, but it is higher not because it is hard, Germany shows it is cheap to install. The problem is the liberal democrats have put up every barrier to stop solar. From unions, building permits, Chinese tariffs, and licensed contractors necessary to install.

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/month...cfm?t=epmt_1_1

Renewables will soon pass hydro-electricity in this country for electricity produced in khr produced. There is no real need to waste coal or natural gas to make electricity, run your car, or heat your home. The only reason people use oil is tradition, advertising, and politics. It is probably good because soon many panels will have greater than 20% efficiency, thus space will be saved. If you put solar on all the rooftops in the United States, it would produce more energy than the country needs (steelhouse, 2014).
07-04-2014 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse


Source: U.S. Energy Information
First, link your graphic. Helps with context, and avoids making you look like you're hiding something. ... Next, see that part where it says "and petroleum products?" That's not all liquid crude. That's refined junk made from petrol that pads your total. Net crude oil imports (which is what we were talking about) have never averaged over 11M BPD on an annual basis. I'll also notice you didn't dispute the fact that we've never imported as little at 5M BPD since the 80s. ... In any event, stop trying to save your argument with spin. We're still a net importer, and by a wide margin. And at $107/bl, it's not at all cheap.



Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
Solar energy might only produce 0.75%, however it is a large source of new electricity. The reality is if you do it yourself a $2 per watt installation is easy. Now I say it will be higher, but it is higher not because it is hard, Germany shows it is cheap to install. The problem is the liberal democrats have put up every barrier to stop solar. From unions, building permits, Chinese tariffs, and licensed contractors necessary to install.
Ah, no, that would be republicans. Sorry. One need look no further than the Koch brothers and their quest to stifle all renewable expansion at every turn.

Link your claim that it's "unions, et al" or stop lying. Whatever you come up with, I have little doubt it's a drop in the bucket compared to republican stone-walling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/month...cfm?t=epmt_1_1

Renewables will soon pass hydro-electricity in this country for electricity produced in khr produced. There is no real need to waste coal or natural gas to make electricity, run your car, or heat your home.
Really? What energy source can run your car? You realize electricity isn't an energy source, yes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
The only reason people use oil is tradition, advertising, and politics.
... medicine, fertilizers, pesticides, polymers, enamels, computer chips, road pavement, plastics, rubber, paints, cosmetics, clothing and a thousand other daily products, including ... solar panels

You officially have NO idea what you're talking about. Do you think we built CENTCOM for tradition, advertising and politics? Ah, no... We built it to secure the delivery of oil to the global economy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
It is probably good because soon many panels will have greater than 20% efficiency, thus space will be saved. If you put solar on all the rooftops in the United States, it would produce more energy than the country needs (steelhouse, 2014).
Hey, I'm all for it. There's no one one this forum who is a bigger advocate for renewable expansion. The difference is I'm not in denial about how they're made, nor am I in denial about what they can provide. That would be people like you.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-04-2014 at 05:20 PM.
07-06-2014 , 05:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
1) First, link your graphic. Helps with context, and avoids making you look like you're hiding something. ... Next, see that part where it says "and petroleum products?" That's not all liquid crude. That's refined junk made from petrol that pads your total. Net crude oil imports (which is what we were talking about) have never averaged over 11M BPD on an annual basis. I'll also notice you didn't dispute the fact that we've never imported as little at 5M BPD since the 80s. ... In any event, stop trying to save your argument with spin. We're still a net importer, and by a wide margin. And at $107/bl, it's not at all cheap.





Ah, no, that would be republicans. Sorry. One need look no further than the Koch brothers and their quest to stifle all renewable expansion at every turn.

Link your claim that it's "unions, et al" or stop lying. Whatever you come up with, I have little doubt it's a drop in the bucket compared to republican stone-walling.



Really? What energy source can run your car? You realize electricity isn't an energy source, yes?



... medicine, fertilizers, pesticides, polymers, enamels, computer chips, road pavement, plastics, rubber, paints, cosmetics, clothing and a thousand other daily products, including ... solar panels

You officially have NO idea what you're talking about. Do you think we built CENTCOM for tradition, advertising and politics? Ah, no... We built it to secure the delivery of oil to the global economy.



Hey, I'm all for it. There's no one one this forum who is a bigger advocate for renewable expansion. The difference is I'm not in denial about how they're made, nor am I in denial about what they can provide. That would be people like you.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE...0_MBBLPD_M.htm

I chose this graphic because it is most accurate not spin. If you bring in crude oil and you send out gasoline, basically the country is not using the oil. The four largest components are LPG, gasoline, fuel oil, and petroleum coke. If those were not shipped overseas they would add to electrical, heating, and transportation fuel here.

The reality is imports are way down and in many ways helps inflation numbers look lower than they should be.

Red tape and poor laws written by democrats doubles the price of solar.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddwood...ting-red-tape/

Lithium batteries can store electricity and are 100% recyclable.

http://www.balqon.com/hiqap-lithium-battery/
http://www.balqon.com/1250-ahr-lithium-battery/

$4000/4000 cycles * 10kwh = $0.10 kwh storage.

Last edited by steelhouse; 07-06-2014 at 05:25 AM.
07-14-2014 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE...0_MBBLPD_M.htm

I chose this graphic because it is most accurate not spin.
Unfortunately, this new chart doesn't attempt to say what your previous one did. Are you following your own argument?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
If you bring in crude oil and you send out gasoline, basically the country is not using the oil.
What is this even trying to say? In what amounts? Regardless, I'm sure the EIA takes that into account, which is why it's called NET imports.

Any way you slice it, we import almost half the total liquids we consume. And we only have it barely under half by doing tricks with refinery gains, and letting the industry change definitions of what constitutes crude.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
The four largest components are LPG, gasoline, fuel oil, and petroleum coke. If those were not shipped overseas they would add to electrical, heating, and transportation fuel here.
Soooo, your argument seems to be that we should be isolationists with our crude imports and not honor any refinery contracts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
The reality is imports are way down and in many ways helps inflation numbers look lower than they should be.
Imports are down perhaps 3.5-4 million barrels per day (not "way" down at all), entirely due to enormously expensive oil and gas from shale, which is utterly unsustainable and at peak.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
Red tape and poor laws written by democrats doubles the price of solar.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddwood...ting-red-tape/
As we've covered, solar doesn't move freight, kill insects nor fertilize crops. Try and focus on what the discussion is about.

Or, instead, you can double-down and punt to the wonders of battery technology, as if they don't apply to the basic Laws of Thermodynamics either:....

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse
Lithium batteries can store electricity and are 100% recyclable.

http://www.balqon.com/hiqap-lithium-battery/
http://www.balqon.com/1250-ahr-lithium-battery/

$4000/4000 cycles * 10kwh = $0.10 kwh storage.
Too bad that with lithium demand growing at 12% per year (conservative estimate), there's only enough of the resource available for about oh, 10-15 years. Nevermind how expensive it is to extract, how much magnesium must be separated, nor that it requires complex computer management systems just to remain remotely useable.

And, you might wanna do a bit more research regarding just how "recyclable" it is.

Why Advanced Lithium Ion Batteries Won't Be Recycled
In light of their appallingly low metal values, lithium iron phosphate batteries from A123 Systems (AONE) and Valence Technologies (VLNC), lithium manganese batteries from Ener1 (HEV) and lithium titanate batteries from Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) will never be reasonable candidates for recycling, which effectively guarantees that buyers will ultimately be required to pay huge up-front disposal fees – think tires with a few more zeros.
I'm very familiar with cornucopian belief systems (usually from cons) and half-measures that attempt to dismiss resource depletion, and you're no different. Unfortunately, substitution doesn't work, costs keep rising, and technological advancement has barely budged.

Like I said: Nothing has proven more efficient, diverse and relatively affordable than crude oil ... It's referred to as the petrol-dollar for a reason... And the reality is that since 2005, production of that resource is flat, and the global economy is seizing up as a result.

Solar and lithium (which both depend on fossil fuels to extract, refine and deliver) will not save the empire. Sorry.
07-18-2014 , 04:30 PM
The BRICS banks is the beginning of the end for the US dollar and Wall Street Ponzi. Without the BRICS to shore up our crumbling pyramid it will all come crashing down.

http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...bn-brics-bank/
07-20-2014 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TCplayer
My point is that is stupid to think that usa debt will be paid off by substantial part to lower level at any time period when we continue borrow huge blocks of new debt to pay off last huge debt interests (basically panzi scam) and keep huge deficit spending meanwhile.
Lately lot of countries loose trust in usd and try avoid it, as we all know all usd value is in confidence while is printed from thin air.

I was asking why you think "Debt will be serviced as promised and rolled over." claim is true. I don't think usa will pay off it debt by any significant part meanwhile you think they will. How exactly they will do it? Are there any way to do it even? Or you think we should simply never pay it back?

Obv if we increase interest rates we go bankrupt in no long time with all interest what we need pay off.
We've been servicing our debt since the founding of the country. Alexander Hamilton modeled our debt system on the British one, because he felt that having the citizens financially tied into the state (by having the state owe them money) would be a good thing.

As other people have pointed out the goal isn't to actually pay the debt, it's to service it. Our borrowing costs are (currently) astronomically low, and this makes it very unlikely that politicians are going to make any unpopular decisions to help with the debt.

Don't forget that radically cutting government spending right now could have nasty effects on the economy as a whole and seriously effect tax receipts. The only way forward for actually bringing our deficit back in line is a serious overhaul of the healthcare system. We pay drastically more for ours than any other country does, and it's eating us alive. We also have to scale back our ridiculously oversize military. I'm confident that when the cost of servicing debt threatens the nations ability to do politically popular things the budget will be cut in the order of least resistance.
07-28-2014 , 03:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey

As we've covered, solar doesn't move freight, kill insects nor fertilize crops. Try and focus on what the discussion is about.

Or, instead, you can double-down and punt to the wonders of battery technology, as if they don't apply to the basic Laws of Thermodynamics either:....



Too bad that with lithium demand growing at 12% per year (conservative estimate), there's only enough of the resource available for about oh, 10-15 years. Nevermind how expensive it is to extract, how much magnesium must be separated, nor that it requires complex computer management systems just to remain remotely useable.

And, you might wanna do a bit more research regarding just how "recyclable" it is.
In light of their appallingly low metal values, lithium iron phosphate batteries from A123 Systems (AONE) and Valence Technologies (VLNC), lithium manganese batteries from Ener1 (HEV) and lithium titanate batteries from Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI) will never be reasonable candidates for recycling, which effectively guarantees that buyers will ultimately be required to pay huge up-front disposal fees – think tires with a few more zeros.
I'm very familiar with cornucopian belief systems (usually from cons) and half-measures that attempt to dismiss resource depletion, and you're no different. Unfortunately, substitution doesn't work, costs keep rising, and technological advancement has barely budged.

Like I said: Nothing has proven more efficient, diverse and relatively affordable than crude oil ... It's referred to as the petrol-dollar for a reason... And the reality is that since 2005, production of that resource is flat, and the global economy is seizing up as a result.

Solar and lithium (which both depend on fossil fuels to extract, refine and deliver) will not save the empire. Sorry.
http://green.autoblog.com/2014/06/27...ry-costs-5500/

The replacement value for a Nissan leaf pack is $6500. The used Nissan Leaf pack is worth about $7000 for renewable energy. Unlike oil, every atom of lithium can be recycled it is not going anywhere. Lithium is not the energy it is the storage medium. Most petrochemicals can be replaced with corn substitutes (fertilizer probably too).

You can put a $2000 solar system, in your backyard and it will power you electric car for 14,000 miles, every year for the rest of your life.

They said the silver supply will last 10 years, 20 years ago. It is good lithium is cheap so no one steals your battery. Nissan will always recycle the battery as a loss leader, it will be bad press to dispose of in landfill. Futhermore, the batteries could be put aside and reused when the price of lithium rises.

A123, Valence, are garbage american companies. CALB, Sinopoly, Tesla, Nissan ... are the future.

      
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