Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > Other Topics > Politics > Economics

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-19-2012, 12:28 PM   #16
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 16,968
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Not really a moral issue imo. You can simply say 'for you to have unrestricted access to our markets you must give us unrestricted access to yours... and we will respond in kind to any restrictions you might put up'. In a game of chicken with the US economy most countries realize that they are up for a lot more pain than we are if they take it to the wall.
That would be great but I dont think the USA is willing to do that. I agree it would be great for them if they did but also great for everybody who was willing to join in. Unfortunately and correctly few would trust the USA to play by their own rules.

I also think you way underestimate how dependent the USA is on the rest of the world. If the USA cut itself of Europe, Bric, Japan etc it would be a disaster for them in the medium term. Not that i think that woudl happen, if the USA truly embraced free-trade then I suspect they could carry the rest with them.

Quote:
EDIT: Also we could take the moral high ground by removing a **** ton of subsidies from farmers in this country. Assuming we opened up the Japanese market that would actually be a net win for the farmers. Additionally we could break our countries disastrous relationship with the food industry. The obesity epidemic is mostly happening because of incentives to overproduce things like corn.
Loads of stuff they could do, which was my point. I seem to recall an issue with steel, sure there are loads more.
chezlaw is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-20-2012, 01:39 AM   #17
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

I agree with all of your points. I'm just really annoyed by people who respond to my criticisms of our 'free trade' system by saying I'm some sort of protectionist. I'm not a protectionist if free trade is a viable option. Assuming it's not I think we should in fact protect our industrial base. Germany, Japan, and China all do it aggressively. Not doing it puts our own industries at a really ugly disadvantage.
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 01:34 PM   #18
grinder
 
DeucesAx's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 596
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
I agree with all of your points. I'm just really annoyed by people who respond to my criticisms of our 'free trade' system by saying I'm some sort of protectionist. I'm not a protectionist if free trade is a viable option. Assuming it's not I think we should in fact protect our industrial base. Germany, Japan, and China all do it aggressively. Not doing it puts our own industries at a really ugly disadvantage.
How does germany aggressively protect it's industrial base?
DeucesAx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 02:45 PM   #19
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,482
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeucesAx View Post
How does germany aggressively protect it's industrial base?
Germany not really protect. I am German and can tell you that at least in
my area we make " Made in Germany " out of chinese parts .

Its a little bit like the Iphone with the differrence that our machines are more complex and that our suppliers dont have a clue from the final product.

A big part of germans know how is in relative small companies that are spezialised. A friend at sample work for one of the best laser cutting companys. If you try to disassemble and copy there product " good luck ", they are disigned in a way that you complete destroy it without spezial tools.
solucky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 03:00 PM   #20
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeucesAx View Post
How does germany aggressively protect it's industrial base?
Well for starters there is the entire Euro currency. It's kept the German currency artificially cheap versus all of it's European trading partners. Next one isn't really a matter of them protecting their industrial base so much as us screwing ours: healthcare. German manufacturers do not have to cover their workers basic (read most expensive) healthcare costs out of their bottom line. This is absolutely huge.

Then there are various small import restrictions, a superior education system that prepares workers to do the jobs our manufacturers can't fill, and a tax system that is actually somewhat punishing to companies that outsource too much. The Germans actually have a truly amazing industrial policy that is very hard not to admire.
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 03:05 PM   #21
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by emitnulB View Post
Actually, since we're running such an enormous trade deficit, a lot of the money we send to foreign trading partners is reinvested in the US through government bonds which are subsequently distributed domestically to our citizens through government channels in a way which tend to favor the extremely rich through subsidies and extremely poor through welfare. Then we again send the same money back over seas to or trading partners while wiping out our middle class because they are not benefiting from the welfare that the rest of society receives.

Unfortunately another side effect of this excessive borrowing by the government is inflation of the currency due to them being unable to repay their debts legitimately, which is yet another middle class killer. This kind of relationship actually benefits the debtor as opposed to the creditor because the creditors get paid back with devalued currency, or, if the government chooses to default, will not get paid back at all. Though it could be easily argued that both parties are net losers because the production capabilities of the debtor nation are not being fully utilized while they are essentially free loading off the creditor nation forcing lower net economic output globally.

I just noticed this post. I agree with a lot of it. I think you're overstating the effect on the currency (although it's there), and I think we disagree on where we should cut subsidies. I personally think we should soak the rich before we soak anyone else seeing as how they benefit from this cycle far more than the poor do. (They have foreign investments that benefit from this process very heavily... This is why they pay lobbyists to maintain the cycle as much as possible.)
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:01 PM   #22
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 4,520
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Next one isn't really a matter of them protecting their industrial base so much as us screwing ours: healthcare. German manufacturers do not have to cover their workers basic (read most expensive) healthcare costs out of their bottom line. This is absolutely huge.
According to this, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ichcc.pdf, total labor cost in Germany are higher though (manufacturing)
Vael is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2012, 10:17 AM   #23
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vael View Post
According to this, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ichcc.pdf, total labor cost in Germany are higher though (manufacturing)
They're also Germans. I would pay almost 1.5 American factory workers for one German

This is obviously tongue in cheek... But honestly the euro currency is mostly responsible for Germany doing as well as they have over the last decade. If you pull the stats on what % of the German economy is factory/export driven versus the US you'll notice theirs is much higher. The earlier poster was right in a lot of ways. German manufacturing is much higher end than US manufacturing on average. This has the effect of changing what the BLS report actually means. It's not apples to apples in other words.
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2012, 03:42 PM   #24
banned
 
nullspace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: { }
Posts: 1,863
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
They're also Germans. I would pay almost 1.5 American factory workers for one German

This is obviously tongue in cheek... But honestly the euro currency is mostly responsible for Germany doing as well as they have over the last decade. If you pull the stats on what % of the German economy is factory/export driven versus the US you'll notice theirs is much higher. The earlier poster was right in a lot of ways. German manufacturing is much higher end than US manufacturing on average. This has the effect of changing what the BLS report actually means. It's not apples to apples in other words.
Do you have any further reading on the effect of the Euro on the German economy?
nullspace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2012, 05:02 PM   #25
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by nullspace View Post
Do you have any further reading on the effect of the Euro on the German economy?
Obviously there's tons of stuff out there... But just look at the performance of the German economy in the 5 years pre Euro and the time before the Euro crisis. The economic data tells the story. Also think about what happens when the balance of trade gets out of whack... One countries currency appreciates and makes their goods more expensive and the other countries goods cheaper. Having a common currency prevented the Germans from having to a) consume more of their own products or b) go through painful deflation.
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2012, 09:18 PM   #26
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 2
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelhouse View Post
I would support taxing all income over $100K and re-distributing it as a check. I was reading about an island in the southern pacific Where they did not want one resident to gain to much power over another so they put limits on the amount land one could hold and it seems to be working pretty good.
This was an obvious joke right?
BlackSwan21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2012, 12:28 AM   #27
banned
 
nullspace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: { }
Posts: 1,863
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Obviously there's tons of stuff out there... But just look at the performance of the German economy in the 5 years pre Euro and the time before the Euro crisis. The economic data tells the story. Also think about what happens when the balance of trade gets out of whack... One countries currency appreciates and makes their goods more expensive and the other countries goods cheaper. Having a common currency prevented the Germans from having to a) consume more of their own products or b) go through painful deflation.
I don't see how a countries currency appreciating is necessarily bad, seeing how it is usually a market response due to an increase in demand. If the price rises too high then the market will just readjust. Also, it could decrease the cost of production if much of the factors of production are imports.

The people who get hurt when a currency rises are those who have goods that aren't really in demand (or are inefficient producers, like Greece perhaps?). They will have to lower prices, but at the same time imports become less expensive.

Anyway, if you have some interesting articles relating to these ideas then I would be happy to read them. If they are just something you thought up by looking at "economic data" then lol.
nullspace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2012, 09:48 AM   #28
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 2,927
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by nullspace View Post
I don't see how a countries currency appreciating is necessarily bad, seeing how it is usually a market response due to an increase in demand. If the price rises too high then the market will just readjust. Also, it could decrease the cost of production if much of the factors of production are imports.

The people who get hurt when a currency rises are those who have goods that aren't really in demand (or are inefficient producers, like Greece perhaps?). They will have to lower prices, but at the same time imports become less expensive.

Anyway, if you have some interesting articles relating to these ideas then I would be happy to read them. If they are just something you thought up by looking at "economic data" then lol.
Don't be a dick. The 'Germans helped by euro being cheap' thing is a commonly known fact that has been voiced by several articles I've read and multiple economics professors whose lectures I've sat in on. Also I've got an investing/econ blog that has been mentioned twice in a WSJ 'what to read this morning' list. I'm also in a reasonably decent econ program. Add all of this up and I'd say I'm qualified to look at broad macro data and point out the really obvious conclusions.

The fact that having a cheaper currency is good for exporters isn't really debatable. Here I used Google for you:

http://www.iie.com/publications/pape...esearchID=1778
http://wallstreetpit.com/83414-euro-...others-in-zone
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/def...out-2010-07-14
BoredSocial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2012, 04:35 PM   #29
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,482
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Don't be a dick. The 'Germans helped by euro being cheap' thing is a commonly known fact that has been voiced by several articles I've read and multiple economics professors whose lectures I've sat in on. Also I've got an investing/econ blog that has been mentioned twice in a WSJ 'what to read this morning' list. I'm also in a reasonably decent econ program. Add all of this up and I'd say I'm qualified to look at broad macro data and point out the really obvious conclusions.

The fact that having a cheaper currency is good for exporters isn't really debatable. Here I used Google for you:

http://www.iie.com/publications/pape...esearchID=1778
http://wallstreetpit.com/83414-euro-...others-in-zone
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/def...out-2010-07-14
Sure the EURO is weaker than than the old Mark.

But one big reason is also that we cut our social system, many work for verry low wages and they get added money from the welfare system.
And we dont talk about unqualified workers. Its like taxmoney for any company.

Retirement here is with 67 !!! and we all know that in 20 years we cant live
from the money ...but we pay 20% from our income for no benefits.

One of the results is at sample:

Married 2 kids one income arround 30 000$ if you are unemployed, and if you have a " normal job " 33000$ with a job.

Its hard to be verry poor here but also to be rich, the best way to live above average. Couple no kids both with a job.

A really big advantage is our education system, normal shool is not that great but free. Universitys verry cheap and usually you get a 3-4 year education inside the company and that time is paid !!!!
solucky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2012, 06:34 PM   #30
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
clowntable's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: 39, 46, 56, 59, 191
Posts: 39,784
Re: Unemployment, personal stories

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Well for starters there is the entire Euro currency. It's kept the German currency artificially cheap versus all of it's European trading partners. Next one isn't really a matter of them protecting their industrial base so much as us screwing ours: healthcare. German manufacturers do not have to cover their workers basic (read most expensive) healthcare costs out of their bottom line. This is absolutely huge.

Then there are various small import restrictions, a superior education system that prepares workers to do the jobs our manufacturers can't fill, and a tax system that is actually somewhat punishing to companies that outsource too much. The Germans actually have a truly amazing industrial policy that is very hard not to admire.
What? This is simply false. They pay roughly the same as the employee for
- healthcare
- retirement
- unemployment insurance
- long term care insurance
- insurance against work related accidents

In fact the so called "Lohnnebenkosten" are concidered too high and that's concidered a competitive disadvantage for recruiting/hiring.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
They're also Germans. I would pay almost 1.5 American factory workers for one German

This is obviously tongue in cheek... But honestly the euro currency is mostly responsible for Germany doing as well as they have over the last decade. If you pull the stats on what % of the German economy is factory/export driven versus the US you'll notice theirs is much higher. The earlier poster was right in a lot of ways. German manufacturing is much higher end than US manufacturing on average. This has the effect of changing what the BLS report actually means. It's not apples to apples in other words.
I'd debate that as well. Germany did pretty well when they had the Mark. I'd say the Euro weakened the position of Germany overall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BoredSocial View Post
Obviously there's tons of stuff out there... But just look at the performance of the German economy in the 5 years pre Euro and the time before the Euro crisis. The economic data tells the story. Also think about what happens when the balance of trade gets out of whack... One countries currency appreciates and makes their goods more expensive and the other countries goods cheaper. Having a common currency prevented the Germans from having to a) consume more of their own products or b) go through painful deflation.
I'm not sure you can just isolate it like that. There's other issues to concider for example the timing and cost of...


And obviously the .com bubble as well.

Last edited by clowntable; 08-28-2012 at 06:40 PM.
clowntable is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive