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12-20-2009, 12:21 PM
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#766
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Econ Forum Czar
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Moloch the incomprehensible prison
Posts: 8,292
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KUJustin
I've looked up charts of things like:
Gold/Dow ratio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUJustin
Gold/CPI ratio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUJustin
I've also read an ounce of gold has historically always been worth about a week's wage (is this true?).
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUJustin
By any of the above measures the current price of gold seems to be roughly correct, if not too high. Any thoughts on this?
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I think all the measures demonstrate its undervalued, but that's besides the point, because we are interested in future valuations. A primary argument for gold looks to a shift in our world monetary system. So its not the past, but the future we look to. What is the future?
Quote:
Debt of the domestic nonfinancial sectors is estimated to have expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2¾ percent in the third quarter of 2009, about 1¾ percentage points slower than in the previous quarter. Private debt contracted in the third quarter, while government debt expanded.
Household debt contracted at an annual rate of 2½ percent in the third quarter, its fifth consecutive quarter of decline and the largest decrease on record. Home mortgage debt fell at an annual rate of 3½ percent, a significantly steeper decline than in the second quarter, while consumer credit contracted at an annual rate of 3¼ percent. Other components of household debt expanded in the third quarter, partially offsetting the decline in mortgages and consumer credit.
Nonfinancial business debt contracted at an annual rate of 2½ percent in the third quarter; the decline was widespread across credit market instruments.
Government debt continued to grow in the third quarter. State and local government debt expanded at an annual rate of 5 percent, 1½ percentage points faster than in the second quarter. Federal government debt increased at an annual rate of almost 21 percent in the third quarter, somewhat slower than in the second quarter, but nonetheless the fifth consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20 percent.
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...current/z1.pdf
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12-20-2009, 01:41 PM
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#767
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Econ Forum Czar
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Moloch the incomprehensible prison
Posts: 8,292
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Total credit market debt (B):
37785.7 2004
41254.0 2005
45306.3 2006
50012.3 2007
50782.4 Q1-08
51250.6 Q2
52070.5 Q3
52509.0 Q4
52899.4 Q1-09
52730.3 Q2
52617.3 Q3
page 60 of the z1: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...Current/z1.pdf
Total credit has contracted the last two quarters even with all the government "borrow and spend" - an unprecedented problem. Total Credit is now about $52.6T and the private sector is still de-leveraging. Credit deflation? The exponential growth monster in hungry.
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12-20-2009, 03:04 PM
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#768
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still catching up
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: northeast ohio
Posts: 27,138
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
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12-20-2009, 03:05 PM
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#769
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still catching up
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: northeast ohio
Posts: 27,138
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
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12-20-2009, 03:09 PM
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#770
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still catching up
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: northeast ohio
Posts: 27,138
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
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12-20-2009, 04:01 PM
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#771
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The Poker Mom
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 8,443
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
People seriously post this stuff? Have you seen a better invitation to a home invasion or are they naive enough to think the internet is really anonymous?
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12-20-2009, 04:39 PM
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#772
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still catching up
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: northeast ohio
Posts: 27,138
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by entertainme
People seriously post this stuff? Have you seen a better invitation to a home invasion or are they naive enough to think the internet is really anonymous?
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i thought the same thing, but i guess they felt comfortable enough to do it.
couple questions: how does one go about accumulating that much precious metal? these people are millionaires, yes? and it's taken them a lifetime of doing it?
i'm just interested in how the **** they end up with that much..
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12-20-2009, 08:13 PM
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#773
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adept
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: moving up
Posts: 1,159
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Do you have four arms? lol
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12-20-2009, 08:31 PM
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#774
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Seals with Clubs
Posts: 7,279
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverPlay
Do you have four arms? lol
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2 for his wife obv
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12-20-2009, 09:57 PM
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#775
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Madison, WI
Posts: 6,781
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiper
i'm just interested in how the **** they end up with that much..
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robbed Ft. Knox LDO
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12-20-2009, 09:58 PM
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#776
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Madison, WI
Posts: 6,781
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiper
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Whats the thread URL for this? It seems way to professional made up to be someones real lot - plus it looks like a city scape so it was obviously setup.
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12-20-2009, 10:52 PM
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#777
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: trembling in fear of tomdemaine
Posts: 29,838
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiper
couple questions: how does one go about accumulating that much precious metal? these people are millionaires, yes? and it's taken them a lifetime of doing it?
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Maybe they got it a long time ago? Even as recently as 1970, you could get an ounce of gold for what, fifty bucks? So for $100k you could get 2,000 ounces...So they'd be millionaires now, haha. Anyways, I'm not sure if gold was that cheap back then. But ya, gold wasn't always $1100/oz. Ten years ago it was $300 an ounce.
What is ya'lls opinions on buying grams instead of ounces of gold? I didn't know that was possible until I saw some of those baller pictures posted above.
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12-20-2009, 10:52 PM
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#778
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Please Sir, I want some more fish.
Posts: 12,135
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KUJustin
I've looked up charts of things like:
Gold/Dow ratio
Gold/CPI ratio
I've also read an ounce of gold has historically always been worth about a week's wage (is this true?).
By any of the above measures the current price of gold seems to be roughly correct, if not too high. Any thoughts on this?
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I don't believe there is any inherent reason why the DOW should have any relation to the price of gold. As for the CPI it should fall vs gold over time. I have no idea about the week's wage, however I believe population has expanded faster than gold supply which should mean less gold per unit work (which also should further drive down the CPI vs gold).
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Shhhh. I believe I make about three cents per post. Don't be throwing out crazy ideas that might cost me money.
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I've seen many people brag about outrageous winrates but I think this takes the cake.
Last edited by Bremen; 12-20-2009 at 10:58 PM.
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12-21-2009, 01:20 AM
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#779
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still catching up
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: northeast ohio
Posts: 27,138
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclear500
Whats the thread URL for this? It seems way to professional made up to be someones real lot - plus it looks like a city scape so it was obviously setup.
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goldismoney.info forums, specifically the gold/silver forum, the thread i think is called 'gold bars pictorial'.
and yes, i'm pretty sure i read that picture is one of the 'main guy's' stash, that he ****ed around with one day. someone didn't believe it, and someone else said, 'yeah, that's dude's stash, you must be new'.
*shrug*
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taso
Maybe they got it a long time ago? Even as recently as 1970, you could get an ounce of gold for what, fifty bucks? So for $100k you could get 2,000 ounces...So they'd be millionaires now, haha. Anyways, I'm not sure if gold was that cheap back then. But ya, gold wasn't always $1100/oz. Ten years ago it was $300 an ounce.
What is ya'lls opinions on buying grams instead of ounces of gold? I didn't know that was possible until I saw some of those baller pictures posted above.
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didn't think about it like that, you're probably right.
as for grams vs ounces, not all of us are playing 10/20.
i've only been interested in gold and silver for about 3 months, and i've accumulated i think 30 ounces of silver and just over an ounce of gold. 35 grams or so, 1/2.5/5 grams at a time.
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12-21-2009, 02:43 PM
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#780
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: just outside your peripheral vision
Posts: 9,116
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Re: Still time to buy gold imo.
Apropos of nothing, I just saw an APMEX banner ad on TalkingPointsMemo.
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