Still time to buy gold imo. - Page 45 - Economics -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

T50_Omaha8 · 12-11-2009, 11:55 AM

Still falling like a rock imo.

Strange movements in the markets lately. Seems like everything is starting decouple.

Glad I'm set up for maximum indifference, I guess.

Rob Easy · 12-11-2009, 10:46 PM

Can you guys help me out? I'm looking into buying gold as an investment but I'm pretty clueless as to what would be the cheapest/safest way to go about it. Emphasis on safety. Are sites like Apmex, kitco and goldline safe? I'm probably going to call a dealer soon. Are dealers authorized by the US mint any safer than others?

ScottySo · 12-12-2009, 01:09 AM

anyone have some good advice on how to get my feet wet in the trading department? I want to put some of my IRA into asset-related funds. links are welcome.

SenorKeeed · 12-12-2009, 01:22 AM

Interactive Brokers has the lowest fees of the discount brokers, but you have to deposit 10k. Scottrade is also good, but with higher fees. Stay away from etrade.

iversonian · 12-12-2009, 02:47 AM

IB is intended for active traderes. If you do no trading at all, you'll end up paying $120/year or so in account maintenance fees.

**Bigdaddydvo** · 12-12-2009, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

Can you guys help me out? I'm looking into buying gold as an investment but I'm pretty clueless as to what would be the cheapest/safest way to go about it. Emphasis on safety. Are sites like Apmex, kitco and goldline safe? I'm probably going to call a dealer soon. Are dealers authorized by the US mint any safer than others?

Read the stuff I've written in this thread

GuvnorJimmy · 12-12-2009, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

Can you guys help me out? I'm looking into buying gold as an investment but I'm pretty clueless as to what would be the cheapest/safest way to go about it. Emphasis on safety. Are sites like Apmex, kitco and goldline safe? I'm probably going to call a dealer soon. Are dealers authorized by the US mint any safer than others?

Roughly how much are you looking to invest?

I made a large investment into the actual gold itself. I bought kilo bars. This gives me the most gold for my money at the lowest premium (for buying the actual gold).

Owning the actual gold is the safest way as it would be in your possession. You can buy coins too but you would have to pay a larger premium on some of those, but you can also get a premium when you sell. Personally I think you should just buy the gold in the cheapest form and store it. I am not an expert but if you manage to sell the gold to a private individual (or a gold dealer) then it is down to you to pay the tax as if you bought shares, etf's etc then it is instantly traceable.

Here are some links from the UK (the same applies to you in the US):

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...-buy-gold.aspx

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...gold-bars.html

Rob Easy · 12-12-2009, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GuvnorJimmy

Roughly how much are you looking to invest?

I made a large investment into the actual gold itself. I bought kilo bars. This gives me the most gold for my money at the lowest premium (for buying the actual gold).

Owning the actual gold is the safest way as it would be in your possession. You can buy coins too but you would have to pay a larger premium on some of those, but you can also get a premium when you sell. Personally I think you should just buy the gold in the cheapest form and store it. I am not an expert but if you manage to sell the gold to a private individual (or a gold dealer) then it is down to you to pay the tax as if you bought shares, etf's etc then it is instantly traceable.

Here are some links from the UK (the same applies to you in the US):

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...-buy-gold.aspx

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...gold-bars.html

Only around $2500 (however this is a lot of money to me). I'm leaning towards buying American Eagles because they seem to have the best reputation and would be easier to sell. Any thoughts on the reliability of the major gold sites like apmex?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigdaddydvo

Read the stuff I've written in this thread

Call me naive, but could a gold seizure really happen in this day and age?

**Bigdaddydvo** · 12-12-2009, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

Only around $2500 (however this is a lot of money to me). I'm leaning towards buying American Eagles because they seem to have the best reputation and would be easier to sell. Any thoughts on the reliability of the major gold sites like apmex?

Eagles are about $40 more expensive now than the other major 1 oz coins due to a recent shortage. I'd just go w/Krugerrands iiwy.

ScottySo · 12-12-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

Call me naive, but could a gold seizure really happen in this day and age?

I recall a recent Boro post saying no. His reasoning was that, back when we had the first gold seizures, most gold was stored in places where the government could easily take it. However, if things god really bad, I can't 100% say the government wouldn't take more drastic steps if things get really bad. The precedent is already there, and I can definitely picture some ridiculous taxes on gold or other means by which to essentially steal gold from the people. IMO, it just seems like a smart move to take physical possession for a variety of reasons.

**Bigdaddydvo** · 12-12-2009, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

Only around $2500 (however this is a lot of money to me). I'm leaning towards buying American Eagles because they seem to have the best reputation and would be easier to sell. Any thoughts on the reliability of the major gold sites like apmex?

Call me naive, but could a gold seizure really happen in this day and age?

This article sums up nicely why gold confiscation is super unlikely.

wiper · 12-12-2009, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottySo

I recall a recent Boro post saying no. His reasoning was that, back when we had the first gold seizures, most gold was stored in places where the government could easily take it. However, if things god really bad, I can't 100% say the government wouldn't take more drastic steps if things get really bad. The precedent is already there, and I can definitely picture some ridiculous taxes on gold or other means by which to essentially steal gold from the people. IMO, it just seems like a smart move to take physical possession for a variety of reasons.

i'm just a small time gold/silver bug (though i DID just buy my first 5-gram bar woo hoo), but i am not worried in the least about gold seizures.

them: we are taking everyone's gold

me: what gold?

them: the gold you've bought over the last year.

me: what gold?

and while that article about seizures was cool,

Quote:

For example, if some oil-producing nation suddenly demands gold in exchange for oil, I would place a very high probability that gold will be seized under the umbrella of "national security."

good luck with that.

they aren't coming after me for ~1oz of gold and ~30oz of silver for one, and for two if they do, i'm going to politely tell them that they cannot have it.

J.R. · 12-12-2009, 04:16 PM

another take on confiscation possibility

==============

Nouriel Roubini has a new piece out at his RGE monitor: The New Bubble in the Barbarous Relic that Is Gold

In case you didn't know, Larry Summers used to sit on RGE's board, had an ownership stake and got paid 147K in salary by RGE.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...rs04032009.pdf

scroll to page 33 (last page) where it states that Summers was on Roubini's board of advisors since 2006. scorll to page 3 - there are two entries on that page: 1) Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Summers divested his ownership stake in December 2008 for <$50k -- 2) Summers also received a salary from Roubini's RGE to the tune of $147,000

Anyway, ZH just ripped Roubini's article apart:

Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold

Quote:

In a headline piece on roubini.com, Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower. The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini's thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini's thesis.

...

Mr. Roubini is wrong on one key argument: gold bug mania is not so much driven by the dream of fiat currency destruction (we all know the race to the bottom is on everywhere except in Europe which as discussed above has it own unique set of circumstances), but by the volatility in the actual reversal from expansion to contraction monetary phases. The Fed is in uncharted monetary policy territory, and way out of its comfort zone. If history is any indication, Greenspan, who was unable to control the runaway train of monetary glutting in the early 2000s, is a perfect case study of what will happen - why would Bernanke, who is Alan "Moral Hazard" Greenspan reincarnated, get it right? Especially, having demonstrated over the past month a complete lack of comprehension of asset bubble existence. And that particular bet explains why all the smartest money is currently accumulating it. Many pundits have said that the one who times the switch to inflationary policy by the Fed will be the richest man in 2010 (or 2012 if Goldman is right). Yet gold is a negative carry-free way to make just such a wager with the broadest possible time horizon: gold's lack of positive carry offsets precisely the theta bleed which one would incur if one was merely rolling S&P puts constantly waiting for the Nassim Taleb moment of six sigma plus singularity. Also, once purchased, there is no need to roll the gold contracts, especially in physical form. At the end of the day, if the monetary skeptics are right, and they most likely are, the Fed will not only be unable to rein in inflation but we will go straight to hyperinflation and not pass go. At that moment the price of gold will hit escape velocity. And as in hyperinflation traditional supply/demand mechanics collapse, especially for such industrial metals as copper, aluminum, and, yes, even silver, gold's lack of intrinsic value will be the main thing in its favor. Furthermore, with gold prices representing a nearly 80% discount on the global monetary base in simple value terms, in a scramble to a makeshift gold standard, the next resistance level will be not $2000, but $6000/oz.

Yet in all honesty, we do agree with Roubini, that at that point in the future, when all non-gold commodities are flatlining, spam will likely be just as valuable as gold. Unfortunately, lead will be in a league of its own. If that is the price to pay for the terminal proof of flawed-from-the-start Keynesian economics, and the failure of the Federal Reserve as the bastion of Wall Street's "second estate" interests, and the subsequent demise of both, it may just end up being worth it.

Rob Easy · 12-12-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigdaddydvo

Eagles are about $40 more expensive now than the other major 1 oz coins due to a recent shortage. I'd just go w/Krugerrands iiwy.

But wouldn't that premium on the eagles also translate into a high selling price? Or do you think that the shortage will only be temporary?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottySo

I recall a recent Boro post saying no. His reasoning was that, back when we had the first gold seizures, most gold was stored in places where the government could easily take it. However, if things god really bad, I can't 100% say the government wouldn't take more drastic steps if things get really bad. The precedent is already there, and I can definitely picture some ridiculous taxes on gold or other means by which to essentially steal gold from the people. IMO, it just seems like a smart move to take physical possession for a variety of reasons.

Oh trust me, I wouldn't do it any other way. I'm just concerned about what company I can trust. I tried searching for reviews and consumer reports but I couldn't find anything substantial.

**Bigdaddydvo** · 12-12-2009, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob Easy

But wouldn't that premium on the eagles also translate into a high selling price? Or do you think that the shortage will only be temporary?

Oh trust me, I wouldn't do it any other way. I'm just concerned about what company I can trust.

I'd say the Eagle shortage is likely temporary, which is why they wouldn't be my first choice atm.