Originally Posted by GittyUP
Thats possible but I dont buy it. You must read too much zerohedge. I think the selling is due to the exact reasons I stated earlier in the thread but basically we are facing a huge deflationary headwind.
One of the scenarios that makes me (and I'm sure some others) bullish on gold actually involves this deflationary headwind you speak of and agree that it would be the natural process with no intervention. It's just that you seem to believe the Fed will stay on the sidelines throughout it. They may be there now, but I'm fully expecting them to jump back in the game as soon as the markets turn down and pressure is placed on the banks.
You may be a good enough trader to move in and out accordingly, but I think the more +EV play for me is using my active time on other sources of producing income, with a more passive buy and hold approach to gold, since I may not be able to time the shorter term, but presuming the % chance of more Fed QE is high enough, I come out more ahead with that EV and the time spent on my other ventures, than I would with using active time learning to trade the timing and not managing other projects or poker on the side.