what kind of response is that

It's my honest opinion

Must be new to this thread.

You don't think it will be overvalued at $1000?

No, I think $800-1200 is about right. If I could buy without paying 6% extra, I would buy even if it dropped below say 1400 (I would still consider it a little overvalued, but it would be a good hedge and my sums are way too small to buy real estate so it's only alternative to stocks that I know of). If I could buy silver without paying 20-30% extra (yes, it's that ridiculous in this small country), I would buy a kilogram next monday.

I obviously have no confidence in this lol. But what can I do, I have to make some sort of decision, even if I recognise I'm probably way off.

If only I knew when to sell my gold. I have 25% of my portfolio in bullion and have made good money right now. I bought it a couple of years ago.

Trying to time this can suck (but i hope i don't get badly burned). It is hard to see gold dropping like 50% from here. I think it is more likely to go up 50% by the end of the year.

Please research other investment alternatives to stocks. Paying a fee of 20+% to buy and probably another 20% to sell is insane (if this is what you are talking about by "paying extra").

Having 25% of your invest-able assets in one investment is typically considered poor diversification and therefore more risky. Of course having that one investment be a particular volatile investment would make it even more risky.

You have 25% of your portfolio in an asset you can say, "I think it is more likely to go up 50% by the end of the year." to? NUTS!

I have never been big on diversification. In terms of stocks for example, I would not really want to own more than 7 good businesses. It depends on your goals though. I don't buy in to academia that much and I think sigmas tell you nothing with regard to risk.

As for commodities, yes this is risky and can be seen as speculation. However, I had this conversation years ago and warned of the printing press and what would happen to gold. I was right and earned a lot buying gold and silver. I do not believe the price of gold will crash any time soon.

Congrats on predicting the price of gold shooting up.

Quick Question: If next year the amount of gold in the world stays the same and the amount of dollars being printed in the US is 5% of circulation, but the price of gold goes up 10,000% would you think gold is still fair valued at the end of the year? Would you continue to buy gold? Would you recommend it to others?

Well you went a bit high with 10,000%... of course everyone would be selling given one caveat... if the price of everything else (oil, grains, foreign currencies, etc) went up somewhere in the 10,000% range as well, then I think most gold bugs would be holding.

I am not talking about the current situation we are in. I am talking about next year and I use the word if. Also, forgot to say that nothing else out of the ordinary changes.

My point is to say that what if gold's price was driven up so high that it is guessing we will have an average inflation over the past 5 years and the next 20 years of 40% a year and if we actually only have 4%/yr. Would you still believe it is a good investment?

That is a silly scenario. The "What If?" needs to make sense and take into account the factors that have been discussed. What drove the run in Gold Price and other factors are necessary to make a statement about Gold being a "good investment". Gold isn't a vacuum.

Would be interested in hearing your reasons for considering selling. Have the fundamentals worsened for gold since when you originally bought? You feel like we're nearing a top? I personally feel gold is still quite undervalued given what's transpired so far.

As mentioned, keep all factors the same and the reason golds price made the run was because people saw a documentary by some nut who said the dollar was going to be nearly worthless in 5 years and gold will become the only currency.

I can't really see the economy getting that much better any time soon. I think when interest rates rise plenty of people will be in trouble. If interest rates do not rise then this will be bad news for our paper currency and those with savings.

If gold went to the moon then I guess I would sell and invest in something that produces me an income. The timing part of this can be tricky. The government also manipulates the CPI which understates inflation.


I am not selling at the moment but am in a bit of a dilemma as I have made good money already and can use that money for something else. I don't think the fundamentals have changed at all. I find it amusing how gold drops at the very words of Bernanke - even though the guy is completely full of garbage. They are not raising interest rates in a big way anytime soon. There are of course other factors which has an effect on the price of gold, but as long as the dollar remains weak I feel fairly confident in holding gold.

I think the market has priced in the weak $ already.

I am long Gold but very long time ... short time I would recommend selling.

How can you say gold is undervalued? How do you define the intrinsic value of something that has practically no use apart from sitting pretty in a safe somewhere?

Gold has many uses, but they are never put into practice because of its price

Sitting around in safe away from the hands of central bankers is kind of the whole point isn't it?

what is the intrinsic value of paper money?

Do your research before posting about factual info in a huge thread dedicated to the subject.

The computer you're using to post this has gold.

So you think that gold is priced as it is now because of its industrial use? My view is hardly radical, I guess Warren Buffet did his fair share of research before coming to the same conclusion.

Keeping your money under the pillow is not the only other option and I wasn't the one stating that gold is undervalued (how does someone get to that conclusion?)

So you do not see the stock market as a leading indicator as many have suggested?

Will interest rates rising encourage people to invest in more income investments? why would an investor invest in a risky asset like gold if he can earn a "guaranteed" 5%?

Can you explain why you would give this advice? I have heard others say the opposite.