Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
so it's not worth it to buy a little at a time and just stock up slowly?
what's the smallest amount someone should buy?
It depends on your expected ability to save, the different premiums you will be paying for buying smaller or larger quantities, and the expected average rate at which gold will go up compared to your currency.
So for example, if you expect you can save $400 a month ($93.33 per week, $13.33 per day); and the premiums are 1.5% for 10 oz, 2% for 1 oz, 2.5% for 1/2 oz, 3% for 1/3 oz, 3.5% for 1/5 oz and 5% for 1/10 oz; and you expect gold to appreciate versus your $ at an average rate of 3% per month, with the current spot price being $1595; then the higher EV move is to buy the 1/5 oz every 24 days.
If you bought the 1/10 oz every 12 days they would only appreciate an average of about 1.19% in the time it takes you to buy the 1/5oz, but you'd pay a 1.5% higher premium for them. If you waited 40 days to buy the 1/3 oz, you'd only pay a 3% premium instead of a 3.5% for the 1/5 oz, but it would take you an additional 16 days during which time you are expecting the spot price to go up by about 1.59% on average.
Someone smarter than me should do the proper math and come up with an equation for maximizing EV. You could even make a calc sheet for it so it automatically tells you what to buy when you input those factors. (savings rate, premiums, spot price, appreciation rate)
This all assumes that for you it's the same to hold tiny fractions of gold as it is to hold larger ones, which may not be the case. (Smaller ones are better if you expect to need to sell small amounts in the future, or for bartering; whereas larger ones take less room to store).
Last edited by soon2bepro; 07-16-2011 at 06:27 PM.