Game starts short handed and currently 7 handed. Villain is a young self proclaimed Internet player who I have played with twice since start of wsop. He is good player who gets himself into some tricky spots because he likes to play very loose/aggressively/bluffs when he thinks his opponent "can never have a big hand here". I've witness him do that twice in our prior sessions together.
I have $7k and villian has $5.5k
I open steal A
in the CO to $200. New French player calls in SB and Villian overcalls in BB. I believe his over calling range here is quite wide.
Check, check, and I check behind
SB checks, BB checks, I bet 400
SB folds, BB c/r to 1400
I immedetely flag this as the type of spot he likes to make a move. I suspect he knows my stealing range wide and I would never check back this spot with a set or made flush hoping to get 3 streets of value. His check raise hopes to blow me off my bluff of this ace or any weak medium strength hand I have if he fires big on the river.
I know folding here is not an option for me and decide whether there is more value in calling or raising. If I raise it's most likely an allin and I am getting value from his big draws he calls with. If I just call and let him bluff the river I am often will get more value. I put his turn bluffing range here as mostly pairs with a flush draw or something like that. I plan to call turn and call again on most non-
rivers and re-evaluate the rest.
BB slightly overbet
ships for about $4100
His small overset shove kind of throws me off because I expect him to bluff with a smaller size of maybe 2200-3000 because that is small enough to accomplish the same result and save him ~1500 if called. Has he made 2 pair with KhQx? Probably not because I expect him to squeeze his BB vs my steal PF. Has he made JT for a straight he was semi bluffing on the turn? I decide his range PF is simply to wide and he would never check twice with a set or small flush at risk of losing value and giving free cards. I stick to my plan and call.
Any thing I am missing here in my reasoning ?