2-5-10 nl. Hero is on a huge rush, with a way too high VPIP of about 50%, playing extremely laggy, and getting lucky. I've been showing down some very weak hands that have flopped big, and I think half the table is looking to get into pots with me, and the other half want to avoid me like the plague. Villain has already proven that he can call me down very light. In a previous pot that wasn't straddled (2-5), I raised UTG+1 to 20 and he was the first caller from the button with 63o, and proceeded to call me down on 2 streets on a K J 6 rainbow flop, and then a 7 on the turn that put out a backdoor flush draw (he was correct and took that pot down). He's actually been playing fairly snug except when he wants to tangle with me. He's a 30 something year old white guy if that matters. His stack is about 1000, I cover. The other 2 players in this hand have about 400 bucks each

2-5-10, UTG limps, I limp UTG+1 with Q10, co limps, villain makes it 30 from SB, BB folds, straddle calls, UTG calls, I call, co folds.

4 to the flop.

Pot is 130

Flop is Q107

Checked to me, I bet 70, only villain calls.

Pot is 270

Turn is 7

Check, I bet 150, villain calls

pot is 570

River is 7

Villain checks, how much do we bet? He has about 750 left

Each street, villain checked after maybe 2-3 seconds, and each time he called within 5 seconds when the action was back on him.

I think there's a small chance he's sandbagging here with AA or KK, but probably not. There's a decent chance we are chopping, but I think a good percentage of the time he has JJ or a 10 here and is looking to pick off a bluff.

40 pre

given history, I'm dropping 4 black chips in here

When V's adjust to my lagginess by playing ultra passively with their sdv hands like this, I like to occasionally find spots to shove it down their throats. Not saying I would do this often, but I think all in has some merit.

I really like a huge "value bluff" here. Wouldn't mind an all in as well.

Might just cram it in and hope he calls with JJ or Tx.

I think you should have sized your flop and turn bets to you could pot jam the river.

What do people think villains preflop range is? Ime people make these small raises out of the blinds with small pp and Axs trying to "build the pot if they hit". If this is true villain mostly has missed A high flush draws so I like a small bet like 20-25% pot.

I agree with the muffin man that you should have sized your bets to set up a shove. As played I would bet about half his stack(2/3 pot?) to try to get called by JJ. My question is, if we bet 2/3 or smaller do we call a c/r shove? Im thinking yes but not sure.

If villain has AA KK isn't he betting flop on this board and betting turn once the repeat 7 appears? He should certainly betting river.

I just find it hard to believe any player with half a brain can call a decent sized value bet or and probably not a shove without a Q or a 7 as played, unless you have been seen to barrel and bluff heaps on the river with large bets with missed draws.

230 on the river might just get a call from 10x or JJ but I'm thinking villain likely has a missed SD or FD

The turn wasn't great for my hand, so I wasn't totally committed to playing for stacks on the turn, so didn't want to set up an all in at that point. The river is a good card for me as all my perceived draws missed so all his pairs just got very good SDV.

A bit more OTF, say $90, since you are multi-way. I probably would've left my Turn bet at close to 50% PSB after getting to HU. Not sure if that would've been good or bad here leaving PSB behind for River. Any size bet pretty much committs you to call it off even AP.

My first thoughs were slowed played AA/KK/TT. The small PF raise could mean 99+/AKs and he just wants to bloat his own pot. He has seen the junk you are playing and doesn't want to raise you out of the hand but is trying to get more into the pot.

This all fits until the check at the River .. a pause before check/calling. But for him not to value bet the River puts this right back onto what he expects from Hero. If we can expect Hero to fire River, then I can take a check/shove line no problem as a OOP V.

I think Hero's issue is how often do we actually get a weaker hand to call a bet AND how often are we willing to call off if we get shoved into and expect to win the pot. Of course shoving takes all the extra thinking out of it, but can we reasonable expect a weaker hand to call here? It's one thing to play junk and hit, but to triple barrel into this board is a different animal IMO.

With $750 behind I dont want to make V think he 'has' to go all-in because my bet is 'so' big. Stick with what you have done the whole hand and pick $325 OTR. It is a size you could actually still get away from but not too big that he will call 'more often' with hands we do beat. So for me its $325>shove>check back ...

Yes, I can actually check back here if V only calls with hands we beat a very low percentage of the time ... due to the River 7 and a triple barrel. Sure he may be out to get us, but are we really triple barreling with Tx here where JJ is a call enough of the time? GL

Results: I didn't think too long on the river, and bet $250. He tank called, MHIG, and he showed A10. It definitely wasn't an instant call on the river, but I think he probably would've called a bigger bet, but maybe not a shove. I think $350 might've been the right answer for this particular case. Thanks for the responses guys.

You said that you started the hand with Qd10d

Oops. He had A10s, forgot the suits.

Your bet sizing is way too small. Poker is all about making big bets and getting stacks; there are very few if any situations where betting half pot or less is correct.

80/200/jam. I would have raised pre but hand probably plays the same.

On this kind of super wet flop you really need to size your bets a bit bigger, even 80 is on the small side.