Originally Posted by mike dexter
Didn't say he was betting his whole range otr. But his betting range ~ his calling range. And yeah right he's bet/calling a flush with these stacks in live 5-10 against an unknown. Villain is capped, hero isn't- and his line would be very strong.
I agree c/r river 300 beebs deep looks pretty strong, and might even be a good idea if he has betsizing or other tells that make you think he has worse than a boat AND will fold it.
BB has a wide range to get to the flop, but it isn't capped by the river. I wouldn't expect a decent lag to 3bet 99 closing the action against a good player's EP open and a fish flat. He might not even 3bet JJ because he prefers the guarantee of playing a multiway postflop pot with the fish to the risk of getting in a game of preflop chicken with someone who can rep a big hand (and often has one).
I guess aside from his range not being capped, does this guy ever expect you to play boats this way? Maybe; it could well be an awesome value line to take with boats and have it occasionally be balanced by turning trips into a bluff. But man, I just think he has it too often to crai (barring tells).
In practice I probably ch-decide here. If you bet huge you're getting called almost entirely by better (perhaps a good lag could occasionally find a hero fold with 75 or something on that runout, depending on if you're solid-looking or whatever; but he's also getting here with a bunch of flushes/boats). Maybe betting small planning to fold is ok, if you don't think he's the kind of guy who will turn pairs into bluffs against unknowns. Any river raise here looks pretty strong (he has to be worried that your flush draw got there and now you're vbetting, etc etc) and he can just have so many combos that beat trips.
It's so tempting to say c/c but if he really bombed it I might consider folding. It's really tough for him to get here with air or other things that need to bluff, but I guess maybe he could talk himself into betting a 5 (even though it seems a bit silly to expect you to call with worse). Meh.