Villain is early 20s Asian who is stuck like 1k after only 10 hands. Not much history, and haven't seen many of his cards but he just called off all in pre vs an obvious nit who had KK+

V2 is tight old man reg

Effective 500ish

Pre: V2 opens UTG to 20, hero calls with AKo in MP, v calls OTB

Flop(67): KK9r

V2 checks, hero checks, villain checks

Turn(67): 2x

V2 checks, hero bets 35, villain calls, V2 folds

River(137): 3x no flush

Hero bets 85, villain jams for 401, hero?

Thoughts on flop? Was planning to x/r

It's 99 or we are winning.
lol if she shows up with anything else that's beating us.

320 more into 623 we need 33.9%.
He's got 3x 99 we lose to
3x AK (good for 1.5 'wins' and 1.5 'losses')
So we're looking at 1.5:4.5 right now.

Does he play any 1 combo of anything else like this?
1 combo of KQ? 1 combo of AA?
I think I'd have to call here.

If we give him the 3x 22 also (or 3x K9o), then we need him to spaz with 3.75 total combos, which is 2x KQ, all the AK left (3 total), and 1 combo of something else.

Kinda gross, but not folding.

any impression at all if villain can be someone who overvalues KQ/KJ here? i know you said not much info on villain.

it's one of those hands where I read on 2p2 and think to myself that this is never a bluff, and always the nuts. but in game, i just never fold here. Maybe we can choose to fold KQ/KJ/KTs (assuming we have KTs as well) but prob just cant fold AK here. But I really expect to get shown 99

as for flop check, i definitely lean toward betting here. it's hard for villains to turn a card that gets them to put chips in the middle that we aren't crushing anymore. i prefer to try to x/r if i have more people behind or people who i am confident will bet. with just 1 person to ask, i think we risk it getting checked through too often. also betting can sometimes extract value from more marginal hands i.e. 77-TT or something like that. 77 may call down 2 streets, but would likely fold to a x/r.

I could be wrong about the villain but unless we have a read that he makes more mistakes by betting than calling, I'm 100% going bet-bet-bet and setting up the river to get stacks in.

Never ever folding this hand to this guy.

Weird spot. I feel like folding's probably right, but I tend to feel better calling off against "bad" players than good players in a spot like this. I think it's going to be really hard trying to assign combos/weights in a spot like this, but I feel like he called 33 on the turn and ran into it on the river. If they're slow-playing a different boat, they probably raise river to like $215 (just player tendencies). And it would be weird for KQ or KJ to wait until the river to jam, if it's somebody who wanted to get a lot of money in with those hands.

So I think ultimately, I'd just call here knowing that I'm definitely in the top third of my range (if we fold more than two thirds of the time, it's a profitable bluff for villain to do with ATC), and I'm only paying off a "bad" player who is likely to give back to the table/me after this hand.

Flop is whatever. Last time I played this way (with KQ on a KK3 flop), I let somebody's 66 get there on the turn, and ended up paying off his monster turn x/r and river jam. But overall, I think it's fine to do occasionally. I'd prefer just going for all streets with AK, and using weaker kings to play tricky.

Call.

22 33 k9 k2s k3s are all possibilities especially since he was handed two free cards.

it's prob not KQ which is all you can beat

Must call.

Could be JT/QT/QJ...If K2/3/9 then could be K4+...

No idea how he interprets our flop ck+pf call...

Besides, the pain of calling and having him show me 99 is far better than folding and having him show me JT.

My thoughts on the river was that realistically we only beat bluffs and the very rare Kx/chop with AK. I think it would be an easy fold if he wasn't repping so thin for value. Only 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 99, and few maybe combos of K9, 33 etc.

So something like 10 value combos so he only needs to have 4 bluffs or worse for value. Does he have those? I don't know. I feel like this spot is close and isn't going to be a big mistake either way.

betting the flop here - AP it's gonna be a sigh fold or sigh call either way...I probably call in game

Really people?

We think that he's bad enough to peel the turn with 33, but we don't think he's bad enough to 'value' shove with KQ here?

Is this real?

Peeling the turn with 33 isn't entirely crazy. He beats A-high and A2s and other random stabs from hero getting 3 to 1 on his money and a likely fold from V2, and also position to steal (against medium PPs in hero's range) on some favorable rivers if hero checks.

Shoving with KQ isn't super unlikely in a vacuum, it's just super unlikely after checking back flop and flatting half PSB turn. Also, there's only 4 combos of KQ, and KJ/KT start getting more and more unlikely.

Why are you dismissing how often a random would play any K this way? Why would his only Kx overcall pre that takes this line be AK? Is he in for his third 500 short buy or is he bleeding from a second 1k full buy? A random has no reason to think you have a hand this strong. I hate calling in general, but if you were given a choice to somehow get AK in for 500 on KK9r by the river you would take it every time - he let you do that, and you already should know the players in your pool that you would consider bet-f river to.

I've played a lot of hours of 2/5, and people just don't slow play trips to shove rivers. Except *maybe* with the nut kicker.

I think a hand like 77 is more likely here than KQ or KJ.

Yea they do when it's shallow, and shallow and stuck, and shallow and stuck and IP.

Just seems unlikely he checks his Kx on the flop

reasoning for not 3-betting pre? Seems like a slam dunk against a guy who may be spewing.

(edit: just realized V2 is the tight old man. please disregard)

I can't fold here. We've only bet 2 streets. V has no reason to suspect we are as strong as we are. Very possible it's a random spazz bluff or he is overplaying Kx.

Not in any games I've played... But different rooms breed different "cultures" with different lines. Like right now I regularly play in two different casinos, and have to remind myself that vacuum ranges at one casino for specific lines are not the same as vacuum ranges at the other casino for the same line.... With this hand specifically - against an unknown - I'd be more likely to call a river shove at one of the rooms I play in, and probably fold in the other room.

Bet flop

If he did he'd be jamming river more. Probably.

Yea I think checking was a mistake

not folding

Bet the flop. As played snap call. Way too exploitable to fold AK here, especially vs a young Asian who is stuck. If we were in the 200 bb range I might be folding but I'd probably still call.

I called, he had 22

Makes sense.