Is this at GVC as well? Second HH I've seen in this forum from that game... Interesting.
Villain stack size is the crux of the entire HH but you are making us calculate it ourselves with the SPR... A little help please
So I guess Villain had $1k to start
I think it is interesting to think about the decision of whether to raise pre and the sizing, but to avoid over-analyzing I think we can say it is fine.
In game I find it irresistible to call here and think along the lines of "Well, if he has QQ+/AK we are getting great odds to spike a pair and still be good some % of the time." It is hard to work out the math in your head on the fly.
But a simple Flopzilla calc of our hand vs QQ+/AK says that we are best 15% of the time on the flop. We are getting 25% on our call, and on top of that we have to include the remainder of his stack in our odds calculation because he is often shoving flop regardless and we cant fold when we flop a pair.
With all that in mind, it is a fistpump fold as others have said. It is super exploitable but I am learning that a big part of live poker is being exploitable
It's easy to say that but more complicated than you might think in practice.
Btw given our thoughts above, if you take some time to think about it, you can find some pretty cool counterstrategies against thinking regs in this very spot.
As far as our ranges vs this guy, I think we can think of calling as the same as shoving due to reasons above. I think we just shove entire range here because of the X% of time that AK does not shove flop and gives up when he doesn't pair. Or when he has QQ and gives up on the A high flop. (I feel like I'm not describing this dynamic eloquently... would appreciate some help)
So against a range of QQ+/AK we have to shove AK and then all the pocket pairs to make our range's equity equal to the odds we are getting on our shove. I think that ends up with a range of JJ+/AK.
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Edit: I just did the work on our shoving range above and apparently given the money in the pot etc we can shove down to 88. In theory this is probably right but it seems fishy in practice. I think the problem is that live population doesn't really limp/raise with AK. Nor does it really make a ton of sense at 50bb if you really think about it... Better to just shove with AK.
I think we have to narrow our opponents range to QQ+, which makes our continuing range AK/QQ+
Last edited by HH2010; 07-28-2016 at 09:04 PM.