this is a really results oriented bs bad-beat thread.

i really am shocked that check/fold is even a consideration. i don't like the river lead though.... especially against anyone with half a brain. check/call, check/call, bombleadriver is a super duper classic nut line by fish and a guy who doesn't seem stupid is not going to pay off light. if you're going to play it slow like that i think i'd check and let villain value-own himself with worse or bluff if he's 3 barrelling.

i don't like your line against this player since he's probably not that good... as in, he's likely to be passive and not value bet thinly but just go to showdown. I would fastplay this hand on the flop.

Not at all results oriented. You can fold a set in poker. I'm not complaining of a bad beat here. Merely bringing to attention that if you're 3 bet by a certain type of player you can get away from the hand. If the guy has KK here this thread isn't started. 9 combos of AA, KK, QQ and 9 combos of AK. Based on that alone and with the assumption he doesn't play AK like this all the time you can make an arguement for check/fold or bet/fold.

Also if check/fold isn't an option than why don't you like a river lead? Remember this villain doesn't have greasy long blonde hair and hail from Switzerland. He's tight and doesn't 3 bet light.

Fold to the 3B pre. You're OOP against a super strong range but I'd guess that villain still has AK or some other unpaired hand too often for you to setmine. flop and turn are fine but I'm never folding river unless I know villain is a colossal nit. Shoving river has to be best in a vacuum, though it's not a line I would take because it makes me uncomfortable to take value lines where I'm bluffing 0%. If I checked river I'd never fold tho.

No, its fairly close based on hand combos and how often he 3b AK as well as how often he would bomb turn with it. Also how often he 3b QQ and then bets that flop vs checking back IP. You say he is probably passive then u suggest he could be 3b light and triple barreling as a bluff 250bb deep...does not compute. Agree the flop should be fastplayed tho.

He's 250bb deep vs a guy likely to have a strong hand and its 85 to call...folding isn't an option imo.

This

How about bet-folding turn? Betting big too like 600. I don't think you are ever getting raised by AA or AK. I think you are always getting called by AK or AA. There isnt much difference, but I think it's better than check-calling bcs if he raises you, he has to have QQ or KK imo. If you weren't gonna check-raise turn, I think leading is better, you spend the same $ as check-calling, but get a bit more info, not that it would change the result of this hand tho.

If A doesn't peel river you are still leading 1k and he calls you. If he has ak he still calls you. He is never folding flop to your c/r if you chose to. This spot is just so ridiculously profitable he just got lucky. Folding was never an option except perhaps as b/f river, but I wouldn't have with that much in the pot unless I was absolutely sure he couldn't have ak in that spot. Folding preflop against someone who DOESN'T 3bet light this deep is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read on this site.
In short, the river is kinda hard to play badly as long as you don't fold, as BA said villian is betting here basicly 100% so c/c is fine, even a stuff I think with your image is fine too. As for flop and turn, throw a c/r in there! You should for sure be getting it in there not giving him the option to save ~600!

i hate every street.

fold pre

raise flop

raise turn

c/f river.

Folding pre is a travesty

i assure you it's minus EV to call villain's raise here (and im far from a nit).

we're OOP vs a villain who doesn't 3B light and just 3B our UTG PFR. this is so freaking strong its scary.

think thats exactly the reason to set mine.....

what are the set-mining odds again? are we getting them here?

PF call looks fine imo - we're 250bb deep vs a tight 3bettor.

The real question is how much value can we get post when we hit (how far will villain go with AA/KK/QQ).

If an 8 had been exposed preflop, we would still be getting pretty solid implied odds. 85 isn't even a big pf 3bet, don't even know why folding would be a consideration!

7.5:1 odds of flopping a set. If you can put the guy on a pretty tight range then that's when you want to set mine. In this case we have effective stacks that are over 20x the raise size. More than enough money to set mine here.

Maybe you are nittier than you think.