hi all

here below a hand - I wonder GTO wise how often should we raise or call?
(2 questions there)


table 5/10 venetian macau

Hero is not seen as Loose but image is still fresh at the table (however he bought in for 600 only and raised to 90 on the first hand as BB (when 6 ppls limped) and took the changes.

Vilain is a mid 30 pro, he eventually won 2500 on a dry board (pot 5000) on an unraisd pot (he called IP vs a whale, who x/raised him OTT, he 3bet and whale 4bet all in, he snap called OTT on a 5d9sTd-3h board...then river 7h on which the whale mucked... we dont know his hand probably 99... (weird he was HJ and no raise preflop)


Here comes the hand hero is dealt with 9h9x and got 620 eff, UTG raise to 30, hero UTG+2 calls , vilain calls OTB , sb and bb call.

pot 150 flop Ac5h6c, check around, turn 6d, check around, river 8d


check to vilain OTB who over bet 210 on the 150 pot, fold to hero with 9c9x..


raise? call? fold?
what % should we do what? maths guys pls

Call 100% vs almost all villains

called and vilain mucked,, does it mean we should overbet 100% with trips or A in his shoes?

Nah i don't think overbets get called often enough by hands that aren't 88 or straights.

is this statement contradictory with call everyday with 99?

Alsi, if we are playing the hand in BTN's spot, how do we really arrive at the river with an A or trip sixes? It's pretty difficult IMO. But, the same can be said for the field of players in the hand, obviously.

BTN is trying to exploit the fact that non thinking players will just see the big bet, and look at their hand strength, whether it's 8x, 5x, an underpair, or 2nd pair, and say "that's not worth 210, I fold". This can work, even though the BTN is repping super narrow for value (He's basically repping 88 & straights with his line).

We call here because we know BTN is repping a narrow value range, and it's also a range we block with our hand (If we have 9h9x with the x not being a club, villain basically has only one combo of 97s unless he's just hilariously passive with draws).

If we wanted to make this type of play with an Ax or trip 6s (however the heck we can get to river with that), it would need to be based on the fact that villain(s) in the hand knew we weren't repping much of a hand, and would bluff catch us light. In effect, this play is based on the assumption that our opponents are multi level thinkers, and disko is saying they are prob not, or at least the ones he plays against aren't.

This

overbet strategies in a nut shell vs standard full ring live villains
if you have it, bet as much as you possibly can. Villains will say, "why so much man" and then level themselves into calling because they think if you have it you would never bet so much, and also because they love clicking the call button

Hmm, if we had 98 we should shove right? It's the nut bluffing hand, blocking both 88 and 97.
With our 99 call seems very good, because we block 97.

We should still just bluff catch since we're never folding out better hands or getting calls from worse, as we literally rep even fewer hands than V is. Villain's line + river bet size is so polarizing that it makes no sense to bluff raise.