***Official 2012 Where's my f***in money FTP Thread***

[juan valdez]

Originally Posted by NCSU07

What I said about claiming a loss and buying gold isnt legal, but is def a way to get a deduction on buying gold. I guess the other way would be to buy paper gold in a SEP?

As for gold withstanding the test of time I'm not referring to fluctuations we have seen in the last few decades, I mean that gold will never be worth dirt like paper money can and might be at some point. Look back at any point in human history and find me a time where gold wasn't one of the most desired forms of money. I was just referring to pizzles comment about the possibility of humans not placing value in gold in the future. That simply wont happen as long as money exists imo.

For modest inflation stocks are def better than holding cash ldo, but I tend to think that in an economic doomsday scenario that stocks wont do so well, but I'm no expert. One thing I do know is that a company like Coke will stay ahead of inflation simply because they have a product that will always be desirable in mass quantities and people will pay inflated prices for it. As a side note they have also raised their dividends every year for the last few decades, not too shabby imo.

Warren Buffett's quote from a volatile market in 1974

"The market is like a great big casino, and everyone is boozy on optimism. The next minute, everyone is pessimistic, buying gold bars and picking the next great depression. If you stick with Pepsi, you should be ok".

[R0b5ter]

Oh yeah, if the economy goes to something like a doomsday situation then of course guns and food, shelter etc. are all better then gold obviously. I really have a hard time seeing this happening though but you never know. gold will still be better than having digital money in your bank account you can't access. Or money on the new Fulltilt poker site.

[R0b5ter]

Warren Buffet is obviously a great investor. But and this is a big but. He's been lucky to have his career during a period where cheap energy was something everyone took for granted. No cheap oil and his Berkshire Hathaway will fall.

[waffe23]

Originally Posted by R0b5ter

The fiat currency's all nations are currently on are backed by governments ability to tax. Problems start when governments start mistreating the currency by debts spiraling out of control.

Here's where I get to slide into another favorite topic, peak oil. In my opinion what we are currently seeing is the cusp of the oil production. Even if production can hang in there a couple more years through oils sands and deep sea deposits we are currently seeing the EROI (energy return of investment) sink dramtically. In the beginning of the oil boom during the beginning of the last century a typical EROI of a oil well could be almost 100 to 1. You got 100 barrels of oil for 1 invested in the production. Now the EROI is bellow 10. Oil sands have an EROI of less than 5. This number will of course never reach 1 but it's a big enough problem that it's in the single digits. Our whole western society is built with cheap energy. Our economy is in its very essence a growth based entity. What we are seeing now is the western economy coming to a halt because growth can't be sustained. No cheap energy leads to less production and less growth. This coupled with Asian country's taking their fare share of the worlds resources has led to HUGE problems for the western world.

In before everyone says technology will save us. FWIW I totally agree with this. This will manifest itself as no projects to undertake that actually give a decent return on investment.

I personally think this is just the beginning. I could even go as far and say our life of living will be greatly reduced in the next coming decades. (as long as we don't get some kind of new super energy)

So back to gold. When the economy comes crumbling down I think there will be a lot of inflation. If countries can't grow their way out of debt they will inflate. And just as Tuco said you need to be owning tangible assets then. Not dollars. Not euros. Not Swedish kronors.

Bolded mine.

I think it's a mistake to just say countries will inflate if they can't grow out of the debt. The other way out is default, where a large amount of debt based money is vaporized. It is entirely possible when Europe implodes that there will be a flight to the dollar and gold will get hammered. My point is, there is no way to predict the future and any prudent strategy would include hedges against both an inflationary scenario and a major deflation. Additionally, 50 years is certainly not anywhere close to a long run in these matters, and I'd guess that whatever the "economy" looks like 50 years from now will certainly look *very* different than it does now.

[NCSU07]

Originally Posted by juan valdez

Warren Buffett's quote from a volatile market in 1974

"The market is like a great big casino, and everyone is boozy on optimism. The next minute, everyone is pessimistic, buying gold bars and picking the next great depression. If you stick with Pepsi, you should be ok".

A+

I read this to my dad who said he switched to Coke shorty after lol

Also another funny/interesting quote from an unknown is "1 oz of gold will always buy a fine mans suit"

[thepizzlefosho]

yeah I'm no economic expert, but FWIW the our debt to China in large part protects the dollar and the US economy to some extent. The greatest weakness of the dollar and the US economy right now is our debt to China, but one of China's greatest assets is American debt. It's kind of a catch 22. They want us to pay it back, but demanding it get paid back in some short timeline would destroy it's value and the value of their debt. So instead they're going to give us every possible way to maintain the strength of our economy and dollar so that they can continue to rely on our debt as a viable asset in the global economy.

I think it's more likely you'll see the US economy slowly and gradually recede over the next century than simply crash. I don't think China would ever let us crash. It's entirely reasonable to the think the future of the US looks much more like the past of the UK than the past of the Soviet Union.

[TucoRamirez]

Originally Posted by zachvac

@NCSU sorry if you were just joking but the irs realizes gold costs money, you can't claim to lose money then use that to buy gold that makes no sense lol. Also look at the graph I posted with gold. How is that always withstanding the test of time? And don't stocks gain value when the dollar is inflated as well? If I have stock in a really solid company and then the dollar collapses, as long as something replaces it or even if we just start paying $10 million for a gallon of milk, the stock will still retain its value right? Obviously any liquidity they have is ****ed but you get the point.

btw I'm a fish at this stuff I'm legit asking not trying to be condescending at all.

Sure stocks are good too. But there's something to be said for owning something that you can physically hold in your hands. When SHTF, if you don't hold it you don't own it. Personally, after black friday I just find it hard to trust anyone with my money. Maybe that's what led me to PMs. Maybe I'm just paranoid.

[TucoRamirez]

Originally Posted by R0b5ter

This thread just started with one of my favorite topics. Tuco, you know what you are talking about. Here's my take:

I've been holding gold for a couple of years. Definitely not all in though, far from. Something like 15% physical Au, Ag and 10% miner equities. I'd feel comfortable increasing that a bit but I'd definitely not feel comfortable going all in like some gold bugs seem to be doing. I really don't see gold as a commodity but rather a currency. It's been a currency for thousands of years and as recent as 1971 when Nixon took the US off the gold standard gold was considered a currency by all nations since the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. With that said I understand arguments that gold doesn't have any value of is own etc. However no currency does. The fiat currency's all nations are currently on are backed by governments. Problems start when governments start mistreating the currency by debts spiraling out of control.

Here's where I get to slide into another favorite topic, peak oil. In my opinion what we are currently seeing is the cusp of the oil production. Even if production can hang in there a couple more years through oils sands and deep sea deposits we are currently seeing the EROI (energy return of investment) sink dramtically. In the beginning of the oil boom during the beginning of the last century a typical EROI of a oil well could be almost 100 to 1. You got 100 barrels of oil for 1 invested in the production. Now the EROI is bellow 10. Oil sands have an EROI of less than 5. This number will of course never reach 1 but it's a big enough problem that it's in the single digits. Our whole western society is built with cheap energy. Our economy is in its very essence a growth based entity. What we are seeing now is the western economy coming to a halt because growth can't be sustained. No cheap energy leads to less production and less growth. This coupled with Asian country's taking their fare share of the worlds resources has led to HUGE problems for the western world.

I personally think this is just the beginning. I could even go as far and say our life of living will be greatly reduced in the next coming decades. (as long as we don't get some kind of new super energy)

So back to gold. When the economy comes crumbling down I think there will be a lot of inflation. If countries can't grow their way out of debt they will inflate. And just as Tuco said you need to be owning tangible assets then. Not dollars. Not euros. Not Swedish kronors.

I have so much more I could say but I'll give it a rest here. Maybe I could tell you why I personally think silver could be great holding as well.

Have you watched The Crash Course by Chris Martensen? It's on Youtube and I would highly recommend for everyone ITT.

"Collapse" is a good documentary on peak oil, too.

On the political side, "Fall of the Republic" by Alex Jones is an entertaining doc. I think he's a bit over the top and I don't agree with all of it. Entertaining, though if you are into conspiracy/NWO type stuff.

[NCSU07]

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

Sure stocks are good too. But there's something to be said for owning something that you can physically hold in your hands. When SHTF, if you don't hold it you don't own it. Personally, after black friday I just find it hard to trust anyone with my money. Maybe that's what led me to PMs. Maybe I'm just paranoid.

I feel the same way, but it is probably a mistake to be overly paranoid and miss out on some really good investment opportunities. This is one thing I am going to have to shake off in the future or I'll turn into a gold/silver only hoarding dumbass.

[DamnRinger]

in.

[R0b5ter]

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

Sure stocks are good too. But there's something to be said for owning something that you can physically hold in your hands. When SHTF, if you don't hold it you don't own it. Personally, after black friday I just find it hard to trust anyone with my money. Maybe that's what led me to PMs. Maybe I'm just paranoid.

Spot on as usual Pizzle. There is a currency war ongoing. Not only because of the debt the US has to China but even more so because each country wants their currency to be low in relation to other currencies because this promotes exports. I'm currently reading "Currency Wars" by Jim Rickards. The book is on this exact subject.

http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars-...5802483&sr=8-1


Tuco, thanks for those tips, will check them out!

[TimeBomb]

I haven't been keeping up to date on anything related to poker really, but I had a good laugh a couple days ago as I was deleting e-mails from one of my accounts. It read, "Welcome to Full Tilt Poker!". The date? April 4th. That's right, I changed sites juuuuuust in time right? Timing really is everything. Thank goodness 2011 is over, worst year financially of my life!

[GoMukYaSelf]

thanks for the responses RE: FTP guys makes sense

would like to contribute to the latest discussion but I am not as knowledgeable as I would like to be on the subject... I feel like I am more bearish/critical than most about the current state of the US/macro economy than most and that there is a lot of shady **** going on behind closed doors but the whole gold bug movement just strikes me as overly paranoid?

[TucoRamirez]

Originally Posted by GoMukYaSelf

thanks for the responses RE: FTP guys makes sense

would like to contribute to the latest discussion but I am not as knowledgeable as I would like to be on the subject... I feel like I am more bearish/critical than most about the current state of the US/macro economy than most and that there is a lot of shady **** going on behind closed doors but the whole gold bug movement just strikes me as overly paranoid?

Where do you recommend investing our money?

[GoMukYaSelf]

I have infinitely more questions than answers I am afraid - when it comes to this game I'm the fish who realizes the game has started around him. Personally, I am in diversified index funds with a defensive bias designed to reduce volatility, have some PMs/REITs/etc, nothing too sexy. I'm not thrilled about it, but I don't really have any better ideas so I have just kept it simple. I am pessimistic about the game being beatable long-term for the little guy unless he has some sort of inside info or the company of interest has some sort of constraint on it (ex. market cap too small.) I tried to get really into equities for awhile, just wasn't for me... there is just too much noise out there and it just gets overwhelming for me trying to wrap my head around the infinite variables in play which just causes me to freeze up and do nothing.

cliffs: game is rigged --> read and sit on hands