Playing 25-50 (3.25-6.50 USD)

Hopefully this doesn't get moved to low stakes NL as I am after some more in depth analysis that players here provide I understand if mods do that but also the game was straddled 50% of the time anyway which is rare in Macau for the lowest stakes.

HERO, Non chinese tourist who knows Macau poker seen reasonably well but dent not know individual players tendencies.

VILLIAN: approx 60 year old chinese man. sat down one orbit ago,looked like a typical macau player. Nut peddler.

no straddle this hand (I am straddling along with 4-5 others)

UTG+1, Hero makes it 150 with AK (this is my standard open from EP)
MP calls, Button calls (villian), SB calls, BB calls

Flop: A96

C-bet - 475 into 750, button calls

Turn: A

Check Check

River: J

I lead for 1225 into 1700, to my surprise Villian raises to 3625 leaving about 400 behind.

I tank and consider the following:
- macau regs at 25-50 almost always have a very nutted river raising range.
- His pre flop call was without much thought of fold or raise (he tossed chips while ordering a tea)
- I am unsure he has a bluff raising range at all but even so I block K9 so maybe 87
- His Ax combinations would call my bet as I played it relatively passively
Thats leaves all combos of 66, 99, AJ, A9, A6 vs 87 plus maybe? a couple of AQs or other Ax combos

Math suggests I should call fairly wide here but I had difficulty putting more than one hand in his bluff range/value raising range that I beat.

pot around 6500 (~1k USD) and 2400 to call players bet...

Math vs hand ranges is my ultimate question here? when both have conflicting outcomes how do we determine which way to lean?

Did you call or not?

I assumed you folded based you saying: "Math suggests I should call fairly wide here but I had difficulty putting more than one hand in his bluff range/value raising range that I beat."

I don't get your question. How can math suggest that you call if you can't list any hand that you beat ?
If he's only raising full houses and flushes you win 0% of the time and the math suggest you fold. (You realise that the hand you list as bluff 87ss beats you ?)

To justify calling you need to find hands that you beat that can raise as a bluff. He's missed the 3 other 87s combos, not sure if he'd flat 87o pre. If he does he has 15 combos he can bluff with on the river. Any read on his AF? Would he ever bluff shove those missed draws in that spot ? Could he turn a middle pocket pair into a bluff ? From your comments/reads about his nutted river raising range I guess the answer is no so it looks like a fold. He probably has 99/66/AJ almost always if your reads are correct

I'd do whatever the math suggests and then I'd check out the saunas. Heard those are pretty amazing. Also I'd bet the turn.

My bad poor writing when trying to transfer from the phone
I do mean that I don't beat anything (especially 87) but maybe some the AQ (4) or very rare Ax combos.

I strongly feel 87o is not in this villains range

just as many difficult decisions to be made in the sauna places

Bet turn.

As played fold river.

There is no such thing as math vs hand ranges.
You determine the ranges TO do the math. So they are always together.
If you clearly find a bigger proportion of hands that you are beat with hands you beat than the price your are getting to pay, the fold is clear.

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Not exactly sure what you mean when you say the math says you should call fairly wide here. Are you saying that if you are calling based on where you are in your range you should call? I'm guessing that's probably true but to figure that out we need to know your river betting range. Assume it is and in theory your opponents could exploit you by bluff raising the river with any two cards if they figured out you are bet folding hands that high up in your range.

None of that matters if you think he's almost never bluffing the river. Its nice to try to figure out AK with a spade is a gto call, but you should definitely adjust an exploit him by folding given your read. Agree with others no reason to check turn here.

jloc removed some of the snark from my post, which is probably just as well, but there was a contribution there. The way you refer to math indicates that you are misapplying it or at least not completely understanding the mathematical principles that apply to this hand. You really do need to go back and re-evaluate that. It might be that you're high enough in your range that you would be exploitable to fold this, assuming that's what you were referring to. But there's a whole other branch of mathematics called Bayesian statistics that has some interesting things to say about the population's tendencies toward raising a big bet on A96sAsJs boards, mainly that they practically never do it without at least a flush.

Excellent post Renton...

Yeah, pretty much this. In lol live poker, it's totally fine to play exploitatively against most opponents, and that includes folding the top of your range here on the river. Until you have pretty solid proof that he could and will do this with a bluff, I would fold river and feel pretty darn good about it.

Oh.....and please bet the turn

Agree with Renton....fold river as played. Bet turn in this scenario in the future though.