Whats the tracking program?

1000 hours is not that great of a sample size. I would think you would need to see at least 3000 hours to see true winrate, maybe even more. I think the 150 hourly at 5-10 is only attainable if you are a top 1 percent player AND you game select a decent amount/play in good games most of the time. If you are making around 100 an hour at 5-10 I would guess you would be in the top 10 percent of live 5-10 grinders

A top 1% player who game selects will probably make more than 1.5 times what a non game selecting top 10% player makes.

You might be right depending on how much they game select and how big the skill difference is. Obviously if a really skilled player only played in games with 6 or more losing players then their winrate would be through the roof. However, it would be very hard to put decent volume longterm if one only played in amazing games.

What do you think a reliable sample size is in hours to determine pretty accurately one's true win rate?

I personally can only estimate my lifetime winrate because for the majority of my live play I only recorded my wins/losses by session date and never recorded how many hours I played or what stakes I was playing(yea I know lazy record keeping). I only recently (450 hours ago) started using the Poker Journal App and actually know what I am making per hour. I am pretty confident that the hourly winrate I have recorded in last 450 hours is not an accurate depiction of my true winrate. I think the numbers will only become meaningful when I log around 2000 more hours.

to be honest, my winrate at 2/3/5 is close to 5/5/10. so many terrible players at 2/3/5 just lay in wait and pounce. live cash games = patience patience, and more patience.

To give you an idea, take a look at ThatsWhatIDo's stats.

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A 95% confidence interval for his hourly is [$51.43/hour, $122.29/hour] and he has over 1000 hours of play.

Mischa is the GOAT 2/5 grinder confirmed......my winrate over the last 800+ hrs at 5/10 is over $175/hr.......doomswitch commence

I managed to outheater you since I downloaded the iphone app...at almost 240 at 5-10 and 365 at 10-20. Let the rungood continue forever please....?

On a side note the standard deviation part of my app does not show /hour like it does in whatIdos pic.....why is that?

I've only played at Mohegan once, so obviously sample size is small, however the first table i sat at, i was shocked at how much action the game had, compared to the borg or parx, with a couple solid aggressive opponents at the table. the game was a must move and i moved to another table which was basically way more typical and full of droolers.

i cant remember if the 5/10 game was running at the time though or not.

Reality check:
An accurate assessment could not be made without at least 2000 live hrs, which equates to 50,000 hands. Fwiw, a very good 5/10 player can hope to average $100/hr.

As usual with a thread like this, the best reply. AA, mix, and muffin are the top 1 percent, their current stats could easily hold up to the test of time. The best hourly I ave seen was $185/hr over 2000hrs. Accomplished by one of the best NL players I have played with ( a seasoned pro by anyone's standards.)

After 3000 plus hours I have recorded, I am fighting to stay just at $100/hr. My first 800 hours were at $204/hr, and then reality set in. The more hours booked the more accurate the sample, as game selection and swings have their way with the averages.

It's the old adage though; if you have to ask how much, you probably aren't there yet.

Yea, I think 3-4000 hrs is probably necessary to reveal your true winrate. At the rate I'm going now that will probably be in like 5 years lol

Lol yea, I have been hovering around $200 for a long time at 5/10, but my lifetime winrate at 10/20+ is in the -800/hr range. Every time I play big, the poker gods punish me as hard as possible.

In general, $100/hour at 5/10nl is a lofty but attainable goal.

But I imagine this varies massively from city to city. Try playing 5/10nl in Las Vegas these days without driving to 4 different casinos per day, and you're going to spend the majority of your time in games with 3+ other good pros and a couple super nit locals. My buddy who moved to Pompano, FL recently said the vast majority of his games are filled with retirees. No surprise he's crushing at a winrate which is probably unachievable in Las Vegas.

I have 2502 hours career (2006-present) at 5/10nl, $74/hour.
Since taking 6 weeks off in Sept-Oct 2009 to re-construct my game, dropping to 2/5 and rebuilding back up, I have 1234 hours, $111/hour.

I generally consider myself one of the better 5/10nl grinders in Vegas, but there are certainly better players than me, and I have some pretty major leaks, so there's a lot of room for improvement. I also don't practice much game selection, often staying at one location in a bad game instead of driving around looking for juicy action. It takes a pretty awful game for me to switch casinos.

I'm heading to Pompano in January and possibly moving there at some point in 2012, I'm very interested in seeing those games and taking a guess at what my winrate might be.

here ill add to your sample, prob 75% 5/10 25% 5-5 or 2-5 (last two sessions have been fun)

https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&i...f930b81_0.1&zw

https://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&i...03276fb_0.1&zw

im hoping that $17k session was at 2/5 that would be epic

It was 14k, and yeah it was at 2/5, 30hr session.

what state do you live in? i got booted from garden city last week after i hit the 20 hour mark. new law in santa clara county (CA) 20 hour max.

I live in Boston, but play in Connecticut

That was you? They were talking about that at Foxwoods about a month ago. Nice job!

I'm moving to Connecticut if making 14k in a 2/5 game is possible.

This depends on where you are located. In South Florida the 5-10 and sometimes 10-20 are often softer line ups with well off businessmen throwing money around leisurely. The 2-5 seems to be mostly full of grinders tightly squeezing onto their stacks and waiting for inexperienced non regs to sit.

true. i guess every casino has different types of games. the 2/3/5 is full of bored business men getting away from their wives with a few decent people mixed in. the 5/5/10 has more sharks than fish. at least at garden city and bay 101.

Vegas 2/5 is waaaay softer than 5/10 these days. Many times more tourists. A lot of grinders who are more than capable of beating 5/10 are playing 2/5 now. The gap is significantly wider than it was a couple years ago.

over time, your game selection should average out those two extremes, no? you're obv never sitting there grinding the $40 lineup unless you have no other choice / are trying to start a game, and you won't have the $150 lineup available most of the time. so all things being equal and assuming you don't live in siberia, your overall volume should reflect your overall performance, which includes your capability to game select.

I don't 100% agree. There seem to be more completely awful fish at 5/10 than 2/5.