This is a very long & detailed post & many of you will feel that there is a lot of extra information that you feel was not necessary for you to make your decisions. So, if you feel this may be the case, feel free to skip over any part that you deem unnecessary. There are some really interesting concepts & points of view in this hand so I truly hope this stimulates your minds. Just please not that I am new to posting, but not new to poker so this may not look like a commonly seen post on this site. Also, I previously posted this thread in another section by accident so posting it now in the proper place.
The game was a 5/5 NL game & had many different types of players at the table with their own very unique styles, but realistically, there was only one other player that I would consider "good" that was playing at the time of the hand & this happened to be the Villain in this hand. Both Villain & I are 10/25 regulars & we were only playing in this game to fill seats in a new poker club. The table was playing very loose & passive & had many limpers & certain hands went up (& others down) in value because some of the players were willing to stack off very light & were making loose calls all night long. So my goal was to see as many cheap flops as possible, because outplaying most of these people post-flop wasn't rocket science. The game was also playing pretty deep in the relation to the blinds, so it allowed more to room to call with some marginal hands due to the implied odds provided by the dynamics of the situation. My image was kinda Taggy, but I had changed gears several times in the session, so most of my opponents weren't really sure how to chategorize me. Some of the players already knew me & knew I was a good player & the ones who didn't know me were giving me respect, because of some of the hands I had played earlier on. I had also recently lost a $1.7k pot to one of the donks on the table in which I had a set of Jacks against aces & got all the money in on the turn & got sucked out on by a rivered ace (for a higher set).
The Villain was a pretty solid player who knew what he was doing & was purposely trying to stay away from me because he knew that there was a lot more value that he can get from the other players at the table. And because of this dynamic, (& the fact that I layed down & showed 2 hands earlier on that were big hands, but I knew I was behind & the Villain showed his better hands both times & was astonished at my lay downs & said both times that if I was anyone else, he would've doubled up). So because of these reasons, I knew that he was capable of laying down some pretty big hands to me in the future & this was a key factor in the decision in this hand.
*** Note: This hand was played this way due to the dynamics of the table & the leveling that was going on between Villain & Hero. So please keep this in mind before posting your replies. Also, if your replies are negative & bash Hero for any of his actions, thats completely fine, but please make sure that you read the post correctly & your criticism is indeed based on fact & the full story rather than partial information, because like I said before, I fold J9 pre-flop in this spot on most table & even when I call pre, my post-flop actions are the way they are due to the dynamics of the situation.
CO: $1,200 (240 bb)
BTN: $1,100 (220 bb)
Hero (SB): $950 (190 bb)
BB: $450 (90 bb)
UTG: $750 (150 bb)
Villain (UTG+1): $1,100 (220 bb)
MP: $1,350 (270 bb)
MP+1: $300 (60 bb)
Hero is SB with J
Action: UTG+1 (Villain) raises to $35,
MP calls $35, BTN calls $35, Hero calls $35 w/ J9
, BB calls $35
SB (Hero) checks
, BB checks, UTG+1 (Villain) bets $150
, MP folds, BTN folds, SB (Hero) ?????????????????????????????
So this is the spot that I was in... I had a gut shot straight draw & a Jack high flush draw. Villain (as said before) was a competent player & I felt that he wouldn't Cbet this flop w/ out at least an Ace into 4 other players. His range (from what I perceived) was...
1. AT through AK
- Equity: 44% - 48%
2. A7 & A8
- Equity: 40% - 43%
- Equity: 43%
4. AA, 77 & 88
- Equity: 34%
5. KQ & KT
- Equity: 26%
This totals 95 possible combinations of cards which allows us to easily deduce what percentage of the time Villain is going to have these combos.
So, (In my analysis of the situation) Villain is going to have...
1. AT through AK
(roughly 48% of the time)
2. A7 & A8
(roughly 18% of the time)
(roughly 9% of the time)
4. AA, 77 & 88
(roughly 18% of the time)
(roughly 2% of the time)
(remaining 5% of the time)
Once again, I apologize for the large amount of information, but I would like to know what you feel is the best action to make by Hero after Villain bets $150 into the $175 pot ($325) & why you feel this way? Here is my reasoning, so please let me know if you agree or disagree.
1. Fold (x):
IMO, this hand is too strong to fold in this spot against this type of player. I would consider folding only if this player was a calling no matter what I do (other than fold) & he is going to call close to 100% of the time. Therefore since the equity for Villain's range of hands is better than our's, folding would be ideal against this type of player. Or I had some type of sick read that told me that he 100% has a set here & I know that there is no way hes going to fold it no matter what I do.
2. Call (x):
IMO, calling is probably the worst of all of our options, because if we call, we are going to miss the turn at least 75% of the time. We are also out of position & anything other than a non
Ten would not be a good looking card (even though a club would most likely put us ahead, we will almost definitely either lose all our value & Villain will fold or we will be drawing dead)
3. Raise (Yes):
IMO, raising in this spot is the best possible option for several reasons... The biggest reason why raising would be best is because of the amount of Fold Equity it gives us. Villain respects Hero & has seen him make some really big lay downs, therefore it is very likely that he will give us credit for a very strong hand due to our line & if he does not have a set, he will almost always fold all of his AT through AK hands as well as more than likely his 2 pair hands. This line looks very strong & Villain is going to have to assume that he will have to put all of his chips in the pot by the end of the hand & in my opinion, hes not doing this with any less than a set & possibly the King high flush draw. Therefore Villain is folding at least 75% of the time & we take down the $325 in the pot (which totals approximately 25%-30% of our existing chip stack) & we still have an average of 30% equity if he does calls (& we get it in on the turn) or pushes all-in when hes holding a set or a King high flush draw. There is a total of 20 combinations of those hands (which he's calling or shoving with) as opposed to 75 combos of hands that he is almost always going to fold. So this is why I feel that raising is the best option.
4. Fold Pre-Flop (x):
IMO, even though we are calling with J
which is a hand thats often dominated by a good player's range when he is raising UTG+1 in a 8 player game, we still have some serious implied odds mostly because of the other players in the hand. These were below average players & like I stated ealrier, were very capable of stacking off with a dominated hand & because of the 2 callers after the raise & the BB who already had chips in hand to call, calling was a better option than folding.
5. Betting out on the flop rather than checking (x):
IMO, donk betting into 4 opponents on this type of board can only be trouble. If we are raised, we lose a lot of our fold equity that check raising had given us. If we are called, the pot is going to be really large & we are likely going to have to get it all-in at some point with a hand who's equity is less than 50%. Since there is an Ace on the flop, it is very likely that one of the 4 opponents is holding at least one & will perceive the situation as though his Ace in position is a good enough hand to go with on this type of flop. And lastly, we are betting into 4 people (who have yet to act), rather than just the initial raiser. And as we stated earlier, the other players are calling stations & will call light, therefore we are taking away the advantage we have over the pre-flop raiser & have a big chance of getting called by one of the other players & we will have below 50% equity almost no matter what they have (even a small ace).
Thank you all for your time & once again, I apologize for the long read. I am really looking forward to see if you guys agree with my post & if you don't please explain why. Also, if any of you see anything wrong with any of my calculations or reasons on why I drew certain conclusions, please let me know. I've been playing poker for a long time, but I still make mistakes just like all of you. So if I indeed made a mistake (or multiple mistakes), please point them out. I was also wondering how you would play the turn if Villain calls the raise. What kind of turn cards will you shove & what kind of hands will you check?
I was also wondering how you guys would play... (In the same spot)
(Up & down straight draw & Ten high flush draw)
B. 77 & 88
C. A7, A8 & 78
(Up & down straight draw)
Thank you all for your time