2-5-10. Villain has been drinking all night and announcing that to people. Have just figured out that Villain and I went to a bachelor party together years ago with a shared friend. I remember him being drunk and a little bit of a fool/annoying. He's in his mid-40s, divorced, probably alcoholic, thought the strippers actually liked him, etc. He has remarked several times about how much fun he had at that party with my friends and generally has been talkative but not about poker. I've been playing a lot of hands in position but have not been out of line.

He's on his fourth bullet and has gotten caught three-barrelling at least twice already. Much earlier, he called a four-bet shove by me with presumably JJ/QQ when I had a T on TT2 flop four ways. He's playing like 30/80, and a number of people are calling him with damn near any two hoping to stack him. Effective stacks are 1500. Have never seen him in the room before or playing anywhere, actually.

Villain raises UTG to 35. Two callers, I call with 98o OTB, BB calls. Flop is 962r. He leads 85, I call.

Turn (310): 8c, bringing back-door clubs. He then looks at me and says, "I know that 8 made you two pair [wtf] but I've got a little something too -- we're friends so I just want you to remember that." He bets 200. I just call.

River (710): Ts. He gets quiet, slowly cuts out 525 and shoves it forward.

The river is the worst card in the deck since 77 and TT seem like the most likely holdings with the speech. I am sure he does not have two-pair and is totally polarized. Is his drunkeness/history worth a call here? Am I supposed to raise the turn even with his barrelling history?

i would try talking to him after he bets river and say something like "i thought u said we were friends" and see how he reacts to it. i think if you do this the decision becomes way easier.

This. I would definitely try to get a read from him here, as he probably won't lie you to if you ask. Ran into a similar situation last week where I folded TT on a AKT98hhhh board against a drunk V who shoved otr. I asked him "can you beat a small flush?" and he said "No way man." I ended up folding and he showed ATdd.

I don't fold hands of this absolute strength to drunk, stuck, fish who barrel constantly. Yes this river sucks, but I sigh and snap call.

One thing I don't like is that he he says you should remember that you two are friends on the turn, which makes me think he doesn't want you to raise, i.e. he has a hand that is drawing (a T or 7 with or even without a pair). Because of that the T makes him a lot of two pairs and straights. However, he could also just have nothing and betting because that is what he does, and probably does more and more as he gets drunker. Or he could have a weak hand that he is turning into a bluff, A6, A8, K9, JT, etc etc etc.

Like I said, I'm not happy about it but I'm not thinking very long here.

I actually did some talking while the river card fell but wanted to get feedback on the overall situation before adding that detail. While he's been playing a lot of hands, I definitely discount him raising any ten other that TT and [I]maybe[I] ATs. (I had seen him show down AT once before and he had not 3bet it OTB. Of course it was a ridiculous hand where he called down a huge nit OTT with second pair and rivered a winner, so maybe he thinks it's his lucky hand now.)

Once he gives you the "I have a little something too" speech and the "we're friends" I think you should definitely raise the turn.

Yeah not raising the turn seems criminal, you want to get stacks in right? The way you do that is by raising turn to like 650 so he's feeling pot stuck on the river

In real time I thought the benefit of keeping his barreling range wide open (I don't remember him bluffing over significant aggression) outweighed getting stacks in/making play easier. I guess one question is, does the speech deeply discount big overpairs?

basically what jimmy said.

call ainec

and i wouldnt really try to narrow his range too much based upon speech, surely not enough to make this a -ev call? i mean u need to be good, what, less than 30% including all the times he has 1 pair, a bluff, or once in awhile a worse 2 pairs?

you just really have to raise the turn

NOT raising the turn was a big mistake....

Because of the speech or in spite of the speech? Normally I would raise turn here, and I think I leveled myself (spolier) due to how this guy had been dusting off chips previosuly.

It's always interesting that when 80-90% of the time a drunk donk giving a speech is intended to keep us from betting/raising, and instead we interpret that as "speech=strength" and level ourselves into playing our strong hands passively that end up badly.

I've been guilty of that myself too.. jus' sayin'..

I havent read any of the responses, but the action and speech on the turn makes 78 a very likely holding, and the river action makes 78 even more likely.

I suspect that he is relaxed and chatty on the turn because he doesn't care that much what you do or how you interpret his comments. He would prefer that you call but he is not going to cry into his beer if you raise.

He goes silent on the river because holy **** he made his draw.

Raising the turn of course is best.