Call this???
10-24-2014
, 06:48 PM
Villain- highly creative/aggro pro who always sits deep. He just bluffed off 7k to the whale in a really weird, complex hand (hero has never seen him bluff off this much before). He reloaded for 5k and does not appear to be tilting. He drinks often at the table but tonight he's sober.
Hero- big winner in the casino. Not seen as scared money in the slightest, respected by villain...
In a 4-handed 5-10-20 game, villain opens button to 50 with literally atc. Sb folds, hero calls with 5
3 (been playing snug oop so gonna use the image/inaccurate perceived range to his advantage here hopefully). Whale calls as well.
Flop (150) Q
43
. Check, check to villain who bets 120 (with 100% of his range on this flop), they both call.
Turn (510) Q437
. Check around.
River (510) Q4376. Hero leads 620 (plz forgive this part if you think it's terrible and try to focus on the next part). Folds to villain on the button who after a little time announces "All in."
It's a little over 4k to you. Do you call?
Hero- big winner in the casino. Not seen as scared money in the slightest, respected by villain...
In a 4-handed 5-10-20 game, villain opens button to 50 with literally atc. Sb folds, hero calls with 5
3 (been playing snug oop so gonna use the image/inaccurate perceived range to his advantage here hopefully). Whale calls as well.Flop (150) Q
43. Check, check to villain who bets 120 (with 100% of his range on this flop), they both call.Turn (510) Q
437. Check around.River (510) Q
4376. Hero leads 620 (plz forgive this part if you think it's terrible and try to focus on the next part). Folds to villain on the button who after a little time announces "All in."It's a little over 4k to you. Do you call?
10-24-2014
, 07:57 PM
It's extremely difficult (though probably not impossible) for you to have the nuts here. Villain is likely to know this as well.
I think it is safe to assume he is not bluffing here. I don't think he needs to be bluffing in this spot as a part of the most common strategies here, and also I think it's safe to assume that most players (even ones with the traits you describe) will not bluff in this spot for various reasons:
1. There's no real reason for him to think you'll fold.
2. You have a callable hand a lot.
3. You especially have a callable hand a lot when you overbet.
Our best opportunity to exploit this guy comes from trying to read into his bet size. Some players will exploitively raise smaller with their 5x hands in an effort to get called by thin value bets that get turned into bluff catchers.
The other strategy he might use is to raise all in with both his 5x and 58 hands on the river. I think this is the strategy he is most likely using. Especially against your overbet.
Let's say he bets turn 20% of the time with 58 and therefore shows up on the river with 80% of his 58o and 58s combos. Some of his 5x will also barrel turn. Notably his double gutter 5x, 56, and Q5 are all probably present 0% in his turn check back range. I would also expect a good player to bet the turn for value sometimes with his 57 combos, even three ways. We'll guess he bets 57 50% of the time and checks it back 50% of the time, depending on his mood.
A range consisting of the above would look something like this:
The pot is 5750, and it costs us 4000 to call. Which means when we call the pot is 9750, and we expect to be given 42.68% of it, or $4161.30 So against this range/strategy we are profiting $161.30 when we call.
It's important to note however that he may not be playing exclusively one of the strategies I describe above.
If he sometimes plays the shove strategy, and sometimes exploitively chooses a smaller size with 5x it could become a fold. Our break even equity is 41%. I played around in PPT a bit, and discovered that if he is exploitively raising smaller with 5x >40% of the time we are likely looking at a fold.
Hope that helps
I think it is safe to assume he is not bluffing here. I don't think he needs to be bluffing in this spot as a part of the most common strategies here, and also I think it's safe to assume that most players (even ones with the traits you describe) will not bluff in this spot for various reasons:
1. There's no real reason for him to think you'll fold.
2. You have a callable hand a lot.
3. You especially have a callable hand a lot when you overbet.
Our best opportunity to exploit this guy comes from trying to read into his bet size. Some players will exploitively raise smaller with their 5x hands in an effort to get called by thin value bets that get turned into bluff catchers.
The other strategy he might use is to raise all in with both his 5x and 58 hands on the river. I think this is the strategy he is most likely using. Especially against your overbet.
Let's say he bets turn 20% of the time with 58 and therefore shows up on the river with 80% of his 58o and 58s combos. Some of his 5x will also barrel turn. Notably his double gutter 5x, 56, and Q5 are all probably present 0% in his turn check back range. I would also expect a good player to bet the turn for value sometimes with his 57 combos, even three ways. We'll guess he bets 57 50% of the time and checks it back 50% of the time, depending on his mood.
A range consisting of the above would look something like this:
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 600,000 trials (Randomized) |
| board: Q4376 |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5d3d | 42.68% | 0 | 512,214 |
| (Kx5y,Kx5x,Jx5y,Jx5x,Tx5x,Tx5y,9x5x,9x5y,8x5x,8x5y,55,5x4x,5x3x,5x4y,5x3y)@100,(8x5x,8x5y)@80,(7x5x,7x5y)@50 | 57.32% | 87,786 | 512,214 |
The pot is 5750, and it costs us 4000 to call. Which means when we call the pot is 9750, and we expect to be given 42.68% of it, or $4161.30 So against this range/strategy we are profiting $161.30 when we call.
It's important to note however that he may not be playing exclusively one of the strategies I describe above.
If he sometimes plays the shove strategy, and sometimes exploitively chooses a smaller size with 5x it could become a fold. Our break even equity is 41%. I played around in PPT a bit, and discovered that if he is exploitively raising smaller with 5x >40% of the time we are likely looking at a fold.
Hope that helps
Last edited by GTOisbadforme; 10-24-2014 at 08:07 PM.
10-24-2014
, 08:34 PM
Quote:
It's extremely difficult (though probably not impossible) for you to have the nuts here. Villain is likely to know this as well.
I think it is safe to assume he is not bluffing here. I don't think he needs to be bluffing in this spot as a part of the most common strategies here, and also I think it's safe to assume that most players (even ones with the traits you describe) will not bluff in this spot for various reasons:
1. There's no real reason for him to think you'll fold.
2. You have a callable hand a lot.
3. You especially have a callable hand a lot when you overbet.
Our best opportunity to exploit this guy comes from trying to read into his bet size. Some players will exploitively raise smaller with their 5x hands in an effort to get called by thin value bets that get turned into bluff catchers.
The other strategy he might use is to raise all in with both his 5x and 58 hands on the river. I think this is the strategy he is most likely using. Especially against your overbet.
Let's say he bets turn 20% of the time with 58 and therefore shows up on the river with 80% of his 58o and 58s combos. Some of his 5x will also barrel turn. Notably his double gutter 5x, 56, and Q5 are all probably present 0% in his turn check back range. I would also expect a good player to bet the turn for value sometimes with his 57 combos, even three ways. We'll guess he bets 57 50% of the time and checks it back 50% of the time, depending on his mood.
A range consisting of the above would look something like this:
The pot is 5750, and it costs us 4000 to call. Which means when we call the pot is 9750, and we expect to be given 42.68% of it, or $4161.30 So against this range/strategy we are profiting $161.30 when we call.
It's important to note however that he may not be playing exclusively one of the strategies I describe above.
If he sometimes plays the shove strategy, and sometimes exploitively chooses a smaller size with 5x it could become a fold. Our break even equity is 41%. I played around in PPT a bit, and discovered that if he is exploitively raising smaller with 5x >40% of the time we are likely looking at a fold.
Hope that helps
I think it is safe to assume he is not bluffing here. I don't think he needs to be bluffing in this spot as a part of the most common strategies here, and also I think it's safe to assume that most players (even ones with the traits you describe) will not bluff in this spot for various reasons:
1. There's no real reason for him to think you'll fold.
2. You have a callable hand a lot.
3. You especially have a callable hand a lot when you overbet.
Our best opportunity to exploit this guy comes from trying to read into his bet size. Some players will exploitively raise smaller with their 5x hands in an effort to get called by thin value bets that get turned into bluff catchers.
The other strategy he might use is to raise all in with both his 5x and 58 hands on the river. I think this is the strategy he is most likely using. Especially against your overbet.
Let's say he bets turn 20% of the time with 58 and therefore shows up on the river with 80% of his 58o and 58s combos. Some of his 5x will also barrel turn. Notably his double gutter 5x, 56, and Q5 are all probably present 0% in his turn check back range. I would also expect a good player to bet the turn for value sometimes with his 57 combos, even three ways. We'll guess he bets 57 50% of the time and checks it back 50% of the time, depending on his mood.
A range consisting of the above would look something like this:
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 600,000 trials (Randomized) |
| board: Q4376 |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5d3d | 42.68% | 0 | 512,214 |
| (Kx5y,Kx5x,Jx5y,Jx5x,Tx5x,Tx5y,9x5x,9x5y,8x5x,8x5y,55,5x4x,5x3x,5x4y,5x3y)@100,(8x5x,8x5y)@80,(7x5x,7x5y)@50 | 57.32% | 87,786 | 512,214 |
The pot is 5750, and it costs us 4000 to call. Which means when we call the pot is 9750, and we expect to be given 42.68% of it, or $4161.30 So against this range/strategy we are profiting $161.30 when we call.
It's important to note however that he may not be playing exclusively one of the strategies I describe above.
If he sometimes plays the shove strategy, and sometimes exploitively chooses a smaller size with 5x it could become a fold. Our break even equity is 41%. I played around in PPT a bit, and discovered that if he is exploitively raising smaller with 5x >40% of the time we are likely looking at a fold.
Hope that helps
2. I wasn't hero ftr.
3. Why do you expect villain to bet all those draws + the rio Q5 on the turn (3 way with a whale involved) when the obv draw just got there?
10-24-2014
, 08:35 PM
10-25-2014
, 11:46 AM
10-27-2014
, 06:39 PM
