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Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20

06-16-2015 , 08:40 AM
5-10-20 nl

Hero has been playing relatively straightforward, and has only shown down a couple hands this session that were all solid hands. I've actually been getting out of line quite a bit 3 betting preflop but it's always worked and I haven't shown at all. Villain is a middle aged Asian male who's been playing snug and very ABC. He bets with his strong hands, c/r with his super strong hands, and folds when he doesn't have it. Effective stack size is about 1400

Preflop: UTG limps (loose passive player), hero makes it 85 in CO with A10, villain calls from BB, UTG calls.

Pot is 280

Flop is J74

Villain leads out 115, UTG folds, Hero raises to 345, villain calls pretty quickly.

Pot is 970

Turn is 2

Villain checks in the dark, hero pushes for 950

I feel like villain would probably go for c/r with 77, and probably isn't calling preflop with 44. He's 3 betting preflop with JJ-AA. I think his range is QJ-AJ, and maybe 88-10's (though he may just dump those on the flop to my raise). Of course there is a nonzero chance he has a set here or overpair, but I really didn't think so at the time. Is this a good spot or just spew.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 10:37 AM
I don't hate the idea, but your turn size is terrible. You can bet wayyyy less and accomplish the same thing, even looks more believable. Also if you've been getting out of line, this greatly increases the likelihood that AJ is going to look you up obviously. I say A for heart, B+ for idea, and C- for execution due to timing and bet sizing.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 11:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
Villain is a middle aged Asian male who's been playing snug and very ABC. He bets with his strong hands, c/r with his super strong hands, and folds when he doesn't have it.
I'm not often a fan of the 0-equity turn shove. This seems like a particularly bad spot for it.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 12:49 PM
Villain's range is mostly AJ+ and given that you're 70 BB deep, I don't like the flop raise or turn shove. I also think that villain could flat JJ-AA here since you are shallow and he may want to keep the loose passive limper in the hand.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Muffin Man
I'm not often a fan of the 0-equity turn shove. This seems like a particularly bad spot for it.
This

One thing I've learned over the years is that even in situations where I think my play should fold out villains entire range, villains "play bad" and call anyway so the best adjustment to make is to not only make these types of plays for value but also make sure you have outs.

I used to get in this spot on flops a lot when I would just decide I sensed weakness and that villains couldn't withstand heat. Nowadays i make sure I have some equity even if it's a gutter, bottom pair, anything.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 02:49 PM
Such an easy peel on the flop w lots of turns that improve your equity this iis hella spew
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 04:33 PM
Why would villain not call 44 pre?

Is V nitty enough to put you on QQ-AA and fold AJ? Don't think this will work very often

I would like it more if the turn was a Q or K. Ace or Ten I just check behind
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico
Why would villain not call 44 pre?

Is V nitty enough to put you on QQ-AA and fold AJ? Don't think this will work very often

I would like it more if the turn was a Q or K. Ace or Ten I just check behind
Let's not pretend that this is an easy call with AJ here
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 08:12 PM
This is massive spew.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosaParks
This is massive spew.
+1
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-16-2015 , 09:45 PM
If you want to bluff, just call the flop and see if he again bets small on the turn, then you can consider raising him. If you think he can read hands, that will look much stronger to him.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 01:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diskoteque
Let's not pretend that this is an easy call with AJ here
Not easy but I think most V's in 2015 find a call.
Part of it has to do with hero's image. Nobody is ever folding TPTK to me on this board
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pilliapina
If you want to bluff, just call the flop and see if he again bets small on the turn, then you can consider raising him. If you think he can read hands, that will look much stronger to him.
This +++++
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 03:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boyrico
Not easy but I think most V's in 2015 find a call.
Part of it has to do with hero's image. Nobody is ever folding TPTK to me on this board
I think there's a very good chance he's folding AJ here, and almost for sure KJ and QJ. Putting myself in villain's shoes, AJ is only a bluff catcher. He played his hand relatively face up, so I don't think it's the easiest call in the world for him.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_Strife
This +++++
I actually think there is a much higher likelihood of him looking me up if I float the flop and raise the turn, which is why I would play my overpairs like this. It's very exploitable, but I'm ok with that. I also think there's a decent chance that he goes into check call mode on the turn if I float the flop if he has a hand like AJ
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 03:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Muffin Man
I'm not often a fan of the 0-equity turn shove. This seems like a particularly bad spot for it.
Yeah, probably true
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diskoteque
This

One thing I've learned over the years is that even in situations where I think my play should fold out villains entire range, villains "play bad" and call anyway so the best adjustment to make is to not only make these types of plays for value but also make sure you have outs.

I used to get in this spot on flops a lot when I would just decide I sensed weakness and that villains couldn't withstand heat. Nowadays i make sure I have some equity even if it's a gutter, bottom pair, anything.
It's a gross generalization, but I kind of lump players into one of 2 categories. Those who are looking for a reason to call, and those looking for a reason to fold. Tight Asian straightforward male is looking for a reason to fold imo, and I gave him one here. I agree that it's nice to have some equity, so I probably should've picked a better spot for this move.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 02:17 PM
Trying to get anyone, let alone an old asian dude, to fold TP+ on the turn for 70 BBs with no money behind is lighting money on fire.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-17-2015 , 02:25 PM
people fold tptk for less than 75bb deep after defending their blind? i think repping overpairs and sets as bluffs, especially for 100bbs or less, is always wishful thinking. If your gonna try to rep an overpair, its better to do so in a 3b (pf) pot.
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-19-2015 , 01:32 PM
Results: He snap mucked

Think you guys are still right though, and this was a pretty big spew
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote
06-22-2015 , 02:40 AM
He prolly had 89 or T9 sooted
Bluffing because I should have an overpair 5-10-20 Quote

      
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