This is live 10/20, eff stacks are 8k

Villain is a solid reg, mid 30s, russian. Has just sat on the table but hero has already played with him. Seems to have a strong calling range in position (have seen him calling otb versus UTG open with KK), but not sure about his oop calling strat)

Hero has a normal tag image in villains eyes imo

Hero is dealt AhAc OTB, opens to 65, villain calls from SB, BB folds.

Flop (150) is KhJh5c
Villain checks, hero bets 85, villain raises to 315, hero calls

Turn (780) is Th
V bets 405, hero calls

River (1590) is 2c
V bets 585, hero?

I think he is pretty value oriented here and I dont expect to win when call too often. Can we raise as bluff here? His sizing otr tells me he's prepared for a raise, since he doesn't have the nuts (i'd expect him to bet bigger with Qh9h otr).

Thoughts?

If you're viewed as normal tag it is very hard for you to have a flush here other than the royal so I wouldn't try a bluff vs a thinking villain

I'd fold turn and honestly don't think a flop fold is horrible either just make sure your cards don't flip as you muck lol

Diskoteque, I think you misread the board. Folding the turn would be criminal.

I disagree with the flop fold also, but I can imagine a world where it would be correct. It's highly exploitable though.

Additionally normal tags should have tons of flushes in their range here.

Raising seems fine, I would raise somewhere around ~$ 2.3 k.

You're right I thought the heart came in on river, so yeah not folding turn

We have lots of flushes in our range imo and vs. any non drooler I'd play all my nut flushes the same way.

The challenge is that someone capable of thought is going to think you have exactly what you have like everytime. Put another way I'd really bomb with my nut flushes bc they are gonna level that we have AK or AA

I'd want to naturally go higher than 2.3 just bc I think it gets sigh called alot but I haven't done much study behind river 2bet sizing in general and I understand that we actually have very few bluffs here so maybe it's fine. I honestly don't know. But I'd do at least $3k. If we had a smidge less I'd consider all in.

Sorry I'm ******ed

For some reason I thought we were UTG which is why I thought it would be hard to rep Axss other than Broadways

I definitely agree that raising here is good and I'd go around 2500

2.5k looks good. AhAx are going to be your best bluff combos, and nut flushes + AhAx would be approximately the right ratio if you havent raised much on the turn; youd be overbluffing if you also add AhKx though. i think all-in has merit as well.

it seems sort of bizarre for him to be betting a range of just 2p/sets on the river at this size though, unless he thinks you would frequently be raising flushes on the turn, in which case he might be inducing/planning to b/c - i cant really see a reason why we would think he expects this though. has he seen you play any notable/relevant hands (you said you played together before)? why do you think hed bet bigger w/ Q9hh?

Thank you all for the comments, much appreciated.

I think he'll bet bigger with Qh9h because he would be polarizing himself with the super nuts.

I ended up jamming for about 6k, he tanked for about 4min and called with Qh9c. After the hand he mentioned he thought i would only jam with the royal and he blocked it. So maybe you guys are right with a raise of 2.5k.

Can he even have Q9hh? Cold calling sb vs a 3.25x button open with that hand would disqualify him from being 'solid' IMO, but whatever.

I like raise. Go big.

He's disqualified imo

I don't agree with you guys. Solid doesn't mean tight.
Q9s 400bb deep on a cash game is pretty decent and has good implied odds. Q9o might be borderline, I would probably 3bet/fold this hand, but it's fine to see a flop even oop if you are solid and have a good post flop play.

The problem is that Q9o 400 bb deep it's the sb who has a position disadvantage. Solid means making EV optimal plays constantly. Calling Q9o with any kind of rake against that sizing and probably relatively tight button range isn't even EV+.

Yeah, it's pretty bad pre.

I think that the opponent's river call was fine though and logic solid. I would ship only as a bluff if I had a Qh blocker in this hand on the river (KQh, QhJ or QhTh).