EP is fishy, both other players are regs. No reads on this coldcall range, or leading tendencies.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($600)
SB ($778.44)
BB ($737.91)
UTG ($669.20)
MP1 ($271.33)
MP2 ($615.20)
CO ($600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
1 fold, MP1 bets $12, 1 fold, CO calls $12, Hero raises to $60, SB calls $57, 1 fold, MP1 calls $48, CO calls $48

Flop: ($246) 10, 7, J (4 players)
SB bets $96, MP1 raises to $211.33 (All-In), 1 fold,

Hero???

Really sick spot MP1 even if fishy is going to show up with KQ, AJ, dd + here I'd think... Seems like CO and SB ranges smash this flop a good % of time ... I'd think it's just a fold bc of the spot you in with one cold caller left to act and te SB leading here ... You pretty much have to stick in you stack now and only get called by better / combo draws... Call/folding clearly awful ....

looks like a fold to me

I think I just get this in. Not sure if SB coldcalls TT/JJ pre, and MP just adds dead money to the pot. Would be a super snap without the Ad, but still don't think I'm folding this.

I think SB definitely coldcalls with TT/JJ pre and hits his set. SB is repping a monster leading out OOP on this flop. I honestly think MP1 has QQ or AJ. Regardless I think we're behind most of the time in this spot or at best a coin flip to a big draw. Based on the action ahead of us here I'd feel good about laying down AA.

Yeah I think all three are capable of showing up with JJ TT and two of them 77

how bad is it for sb to lead here with qq-kk?

SB, if he is a "good" reg then I fold. This is a perfect sized lead to trap the fish and not allow hero to check back flop etc. with a big hand. If we didnt have Ad then it would be closer, but with it I give him total credit for having me crushed.

if the fish jams any pair (likely) and the reg folds ak/qq+ (sometimes - often) then it's a very good play

SB never has a draw here. He's making some tricky lead with QQ-KK or has a set. Did MP1 snap shove? Obviously we're way ahead of MP1 but timing could help.

It concerns me that SB sized his lead to re-open the betting if MP shoves. I'd probably fold.

As a close second, I don't see how shoving is better than calling. It's only better if SB can have a draw that you want to charge or if he's going to do the tricky half value half bluff shove with QQ/KK. In reality I think we're WA/WB and shoving would just fold out QQ/KK.

"reg" should be plural, it's a 4 way flop lead into 2 regs on the wettest board ever where you have awful absolute value against anything legitimate.

I assume by "play" you mean the postflop lead, not the plan as a whole. Flatting with KK preflop is pretty terrible and flatting with QQ against me is probably also terrible. Once you make the mistake preflop, the lead is I guess plausible as a "1-time trick" 2 way bet post-flop.

This is working as a 2 way bet but there are about 14 variables that need to line up for this to be slightly okay, and it's just lighting money on fire the rest of the time. I mean, any of us can randomly just not fold, or randomly have a strait, or set, or 2pr, or huge draw.

At the very least we will have a note to make. It's not like you could tweak your range to keep QQ in it and stay profitable, so it's not a sound theoretical play but rather an exploitable postflop play after a sub-optimal preflop line that will work once because of my exploitive fold and incorrect perception of range.

i think a lead with QQ/KK is fine when you size it at $96. you're just laying yourself such a good price.

and i'm not sure why you think flatting QQ/KK pre is all that bad. keeping fish in pots is pretty nice.

i do agree that it being 4 way instead of 3 way changes things quite a bit, but since CO didn't 3bet, he doesn't have JJ/1010, and sometimes J10s. i have honestly no idea what range i would lead with in SB's shoes, and don't know if you should be shoving AA, but it's definitely a gross spot, and i think leading is the only way to play value hands postflop in SBs shoes.

does anyone know what kind of price we're getting on a shove, if we think SB is folding? we get in 211 dollars to win something like 764 (27 percent), so it's really tempting. i think you could calculate the EV of shove based on the scenarios where (1) getting it in vs the SBs sets and fishes wide range (2) getting it in with huge overlay against fishes wide range. then set -1 = 2, and solve for how often we need folds.

I think he def can have QQ/KK and I wouldn't fold this.

He needs 2 to 3 combos of non JJ/TT hands for it to be a shove and I think without more info you can give him that many. It is close though so I wouldn't fault folding.

I would definitely fold this hand. With the number of opponents and their actions I would certainly put SB on a set and MP on something like KxQx, esp dd, leaving your hand french toast made from challah bread with a sweet cheese filling and maple syrup.

Nice observation, def a factor. I'd wager that he's always jamming if we flat, but regardless we should basically always be playing for stacks if we put more money in the pot in this spot with 100 bigs effective here. Regardless, it still strengthens SBs range and cold calling from his position with action behind has to be TT+, maybe AQs but we have the Ad so he can't have AKdd or AQdd. Idk it sucks but its probably a fold. I don't think people flat KK in this spot with a potential to go four ways, that almost always four bets, usually QQ too but I could def see him doing this with TT and JJ which is prob his most likely holding. Sigh and fold imo.