Eff 200BB

Both hero and V are young TAGs. We respect each other. But I usually play looser and more aggressive post flop in position than him.

Hero opens 35 in MP with KQss, HJ calls and V calls OTB.

Flop Kc6h7h (120)

Hero bets 80, HJ folds, V raise to 270, Hero?

V is capable of raising sets, 67s, and combo draws or nut flush draws on this flop. He should be always 3betting AK pre.

Is this just a standard fold? What is our continuing range? nut flush draw and sets? What about AK and AA?

Depends if you think he will bet turns a lot with his draws. If so, prob fold flop since unlikely to get to showdown cheaply. If not, can call and donk/fold safe turns. Need to take same line with sets maybe half the time as well, 3b flop other half.

AK/AA ~ KQ, main difference would be Ah/Kh blocker. With Ah, would be inclined to fold.

I wouldn't say it's a standard fold... I think if you were to figure out how many combos of hands you have here, then KQ should be a call. It's also good that you don't have Kh or Ah.

That being said... I don't mind an exploitable fold here. A lot of people aren't going to be raising this flop nearly as wide as you think they are/what they should be.

What's our calling range on bricked turn and river?

The hands I can have here are 66/77/KK, 67s, AA, AK, KQ, KJ, KTs, and flush draws, 89s, 9Tcc, 97cc.

I check oop 3 ways most of the time with KQ on K low low boards.

In the past and now sometimes I lead just haven't had success. When raised just fold, not a big money making spot.

Fold. No one is exploiting you for folding here, and people arent raising as wide as you think they are. He's never just raising a random gutshot or random A high, like people would on a dry board that doesnt connect with your perceived range

With given information (we respect each other) I would expect him not too be exploiting us too much with this raise on this board. I would just fold

I'm not folding top pair otf on a 67x two tone board vs a non nit.

Villain has a max of 9 value hands.

I think its more about looking at the whole board. Its gonna be very hard to profitably call down vs a competant player OOP on several different runouts. Calling this flop is probably breakeven EV wise at best if you consider the whole board possibility.

I am really impressed with the nittness of the comments...
The MP cbetting range here includes lots of Kx and if you're telling me he folds all of them, then it's really not hard to exploit it. I am raising in the BTN with all sorts of gut shots, FD, and random bluffs exactly because I can keep bombing in practically every run out plus the fold equity on MP Ax hands. If Hero is not calling down with TP on some turn and rivers, BTN is highly profitable.

I am calling revaluating ott. There are several runouts where his triple barrel will not make sense.

Yes, folding KQ here is too nitty and can be exploited.

What run outs would you call down tripple barrel?


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I think it would be too extent to enlist all possible runouts here. It has to be case by case and also will be size dependent.

But in a nutshell, it's easier to define where I am surely x/f OTT if he bombs (1/2pot+):
Basically any heart, any T, 6 or 7. Important to note that he is checking back some of these cards (at least he is checking on the Ah, because it's hard to get more value from us), so it's not a complete disaster.

Feel free to pm me if you want to discuss his range in more detail.

Cheers

Key,

Villain should be raising a large range of hands here on the flop. Everything from a king or better to JJ-88 or even the lower pocket pairs. I would think that he is going to play these hands very tough with the position he has. Even a hand like KJ or KT of hearts is almost even money against AA or AK, let alone KQ. My initial thought was that I would not be calling very much at all. However, he certainly is supposed to raise the pocket pairs you are beating, as well as his Kings and the flush and straight draws....pretty much his whole range.

I would say you are continuing with the sets obviously, and reraising the flop with those a large percentage of the time, and calling the remainder to mask them in with the Nut Flush draws you hold and are always calling with, as well as your straight draws that you may have decided to play. The only straight draw I am calling with is the 89.

I really don't think the hands Like AK, AA or KQ are really that much different in total outcome. They either are ahead of his lower pocket pairs, or are a small favorite against a pair and flush draw. They are all roughly 60-40 against his draws. Having the Ace of hearts in your hand eliminates the nut flush combos he holds, but I think, would make it more likely you face the stronger made hand, rather than a semi bluff of some sort.

I don't think folding in this one spot is bad or exploitable. I would say, a small percentage of the time, you should be continuing, and it may have more to do with the player you are against. We really don't have a lot of equity against anything other than the lower pairs.

I think that continuing with your best draws and the sets and 67 are the easiest ways to avoid a tough spot. Making a call with your best pair hands for balance every so often is fine. Maybe calling 20% of the time with a pair? Something like that. I don't really think you give up much by folding and having a better spot. Checking the flop is also not a bad plan and playing for a smaller pot. I believe if the villain raises the flop with whatever he choses here, he is firing the turn too...so the position really makes this tough. I would give some credence to the guy being tighter after the flop and give him credit more and fold more.

+1! I think this is just a spot the Villain has us by the short hairs.

This is kinda off. He would not every rasie 88-JJ here. He would not raise KJhh, KThh as well as these hands have good showdown value.

agreed. if i'm V, knowing a player OOP respects you/your game makes exploiting him even easier. respect is a funny thing in a poker game.

Why would he not raise those hands? It is a perfect spot for it. He is going to raise those pairs and fire the turn, because at that point, that is all the hero, holding a king can beat. The position is the biggest thing, you are out of it and the villain can really fire with out much concern and put you to the test. If you call the flop raise, there is already 550 in the pot and you are going to face another bet almost every time on the turn in which case it is commitment decision time for certain.
So are you going to call him down with your King and 2nd best kicker or not? What about when the heart hits, or a T, or an Ace? He has you at a positional disadvantage with a growing pot, that is why folding is not terrible on the flop. He should continue to fire against you with a great many holdings.

Those combo draws are also the best hands to raise with. They are semi bluffs as much as anything...they can improve to better hands...they force out a better king or pair a lot of the time, and when they don't they are not big dogs to anything but a set. You should be raising those hands heads up in position almost all the time. Why would you not? They have huge showdown value? They are a huge hand that should play fast more often than not.

I am wondering what you were looking for posting this question. If you know what the answer is already, why waste the time. Instead you discount an idea or theory that you have not thought about or given any credence to. The fact is, the hero is at a severe positional disadvantage, with a player he thinks is tighter than him post flop and that he respects. The hero has one pair and the pot is 25% of the stacks if hero calls the flop. One good bet on the turn by the villain in position is going to exert a tremendous amount of pressure on the hero. I would be raising most flops in his spot and firing almost all the turns..would not matter what the card was.

You seem to be a decent player with somewhat decent fundamentals, but your theory is extremely off. Seems like you're adamant that it's correct, so not going to bother.

My thought is not whether I am correct or not. Key is asking if this is a standard fold or not and what the continuing action would be. My apologies, first to Key, as I can see that the post was a little aggressive as far as my response. It was not meant at all that way.

On to the hand. This is very opponent dependent. The player is likely more than capable of knowing this flop does not hit the hero with a set enough to be overly concerned with him playing back. He can be very aggressive with his raises in position and make the hero fold quite often. Whether the hero folds his TP hands 3/4 the time or not, I don't know what the numbers would have to be, to be correct. I do know that he is guessing most of the time and is likely going to face a bet on the turn most of the time. The villain should fire the turn mostly, because at that point, with a King, all the hero can beat are basically bluffs of lower pairs. The rest of the hands he would bet are strong made hands or semi bluffs of TP and flush draws. Those are excellent candidates when the hero would likely be outkicking them if he continues anyway.

I guess what I am looking for, is instead of a reply like..this is way off, or a bit off, is explain why you think it is off. I am just answering a post of a question and the OP states he does not think this is correct...well, it will help us all if that person explains why he or she thinks it is off. Explaining what is the issue with the ideas I have?? That is what I am getting at. We are here to discuss and help each other become better at a game we all play. Any insight and perspective from anyone should always be welcome and expounded on.

Mostly, I think that against a player which I respect, I am not going to want to get in too deep with a mediocre holding I am guessing about. However, I am going to have to call the flop a certain percentage with something other than a set, 2 pair or flush draw. How often? not sure, but not very often.

Why would he not?

To answer your question, it simply that I have seen how he plays showdownable hands before.

If he raise all 88-JJ, KhTh - KQhh and sets, 2p and combo draws, he would have way too many bluffs in his range to make hero can profitably call down with one pair hand on some run outs.

But he is not those kind of bluffy player.

V is capable of raising sets, 67s, and combo draws or nut flush draws on this flop. He should be always 3betting AK pre.
Is this just a standard fold? What is our continuing range? nut flush draw and sets? What about AK and AA?


Originally Posted by schmidts31 View Post
Why would he not raise those hands? It is a perfect spot for it. He is going to raise those pairs and fire the turn, because at that point, that is all the hero, holding a king can beat.

Why would he not?

Quote from Key"To answer your question, it simply that I have seen how he plays showdownable hands before."

"If he raise all 88-JJ, KhTh - KQhh and sets, 2p and combo draws, he would have way too many bluffs in his range to make hero can profitably call down with one pair hand on some run outs.
But he is not those kind of bluffy player. "



Okay, so you realize that by your two previous messages in the original post and this one, you are contradicting your thoughts on the villain's play style. He is either capable of doing XYZ or he is not. How do we get a good description of him if you change his playing parameters???
This is what I mean about having the answer and posting a question to it.

IF the villain is not capable of firing with the combo draws and nut flush draws and worse pairs:
Then you answered the question yourself already. Fold. Your hand is no good. He is not raising a worse king. It is a draw that you are no better than 60/40 against or a better made hand that has you beat, and out of position. Find a better target to call down and move on to the next hand.

88-JJ are by no means combo draws.

I never say he'd raise 88-jj.

Raising 89hh on this flop does not mean he is also raising 88-JJ.

So in the original post he is capable of raising sets, two pair, combo draws, but not now? Seems like you flipped the script and are the Villain.

Here is what stove has to say:
If villain has a range of AQ hearts on down through 45 of hearts, AQ-AT, all pairs JJ-22, 45, 67, 66, 77, 89, that is not quite 5% of total hands and a really small sample of what he would have played to start.
Hand 0: 76.570% 75.43% 01.14% 194162 2929.50 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 23.430% 22.29% 01.14% 57379 2929.50 { JJ-22, AQs-ATs, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, Q9o, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }

So KQ is about a 3-1 favorite, against a decent starting range...but just keep the nut flush draws, sets, two pair and KX of hearts and they are 65-35 and that is only about 2.5% of total hands. Not a real big range to be too bluffy.

In fact, the only way KQ is significantly positive EV, is if the person does raise with JJ-22. Those smaller pairs are the real hands the hero needs to see.


So, like I said, sticking with the same pattern I did before...he is a tight player that has you out of position...he should keep firing, as the flop is more likely to hit him than you with any significant impact.
TY for your POV.