Button: Younger Guy I have seen playing T/25. Have seen him open in ep with 97s. No other relevant info. Relatively early in the session.

2 limps, btn raises to 60, sb folds, I 3bet bb w/ AQ to 180.

Limpers fold, btn calls. HU
Eff. stack ~1500

Flop ($385): JJ3

Me 130, he calls.

Turn ($645): 7

Our plan?

What are we doing with different parts of our range on this turn?

I dont like the underbet on flop vs laggy young player... You don't have much fold equity and may induce him into correctly raising a mix of bluffs/value.

Preflop sizing is on the larger side (basically full pot) and I think we have to give BTN credit for a stronger range as a result.

I prefer $200 on flop and barreling half pot on this turn. Still betting half pot as played because I don't want him to feel too committed when we barrel the river.

It depends in how wide you are 3betting pre, but AQ:s should be in the middle of your value 3bet range here which can be turned into a triple barrel bluff because it blocks QQ and bc you picked up some equity on this turn card.

I think AT/AQ/KQ with one spade (18 combos) can balance out our triple barrel value hands of ATss/AQss/AKss/KQss/TT+ (29 combos). AJ plays better as a flop check / barrel / barrel I think, although I realize it's not particularly deceptive. We could add AA/KK with a spade to check/barrel/barrel range as well. The remaining hands like AK,{AQ,KQ,AT}!s are a bet flop / check eval turn imo. The turn card is not particularly great for our range so I don't think we should continue bluffing without picking up equity and without blockers to his best pocket pairs QQ/TT.

Not sure what your preflop 3bet bluff range looks like here. Assume for now it's like {A2s-A5s, 67s-78s} (36 combos). Then our 7's can bet flop, check/call turn, check/eval river. Our Ax with no spades can bet flop, check/eval turn. Our Ax with spades can potentially check/raise or just bet flop and barrel turn/river of course.

I am sure I made some mistakes in that analysis but that's generally how I think of one's range here.

210 pre

Flop if he really is a sicko I actually have no shame in just checking to c/fold here, it's pretty meek but when you think about it you're not really folding away that much equity with your bare ace high so I'll gladly take possibly getting 'outplayed' by his KTcc or whatever for a small pittance over the more damaging possibility of getting owned later in the hand for piles, and just move on to a new hand that you can hopefully play with a fish instead. Plus he might just check it down with worse in fear that you're pot-controlling with a pair/he won't be able to get you to fold exactly what you have without having to barrel off with a zero-equity bluff.

I dont think TT is in the value range here, neither QQ. So total of of only 17 combos here. Because of that , I wouldnt include KQ with one spade, neither the AxTs. Total 15 combos. I dont think the balance is ideal here, so maybe would not Triple barreled with some of the blufs and just stab the pot once.

As per the AJ, i think bet x/c x/c is better.

Nice analysis HH2010

The internet ate my long post. Long story short is that I c/f flop and turn as played with this specific combo. I think you get more value from your non-nut spade by checking turn than by betting.

The flop is pretty bad for you in terms of range vs range. You have more equity but fewer nutted hands. I think that betting small with your range is a reasonable answer to this problem, but I personally prefer checking a fairly robust range and betting a bit larger with a bit more of a polarized range.

Turn seems like a spot where you should basically bet AJ+, the ace of spades, or a total airball with boat blockers like Ad7d for the rare time when you might want to triple barrel bluff the fourth spade.

Been doing some CREV work on this spot tonight, and Renton is totally right. What I found is basically that V's turn calling range is doing so well against us that in order for us to be balanced on the turn, we need to have an extremely polarized range of trips+ and very few bluffs. And that's even if you include 99+ in the opponents calling range.

I spent much more time working turn/river than the flop, but now I'm too tired and will finish up tomorrow. My gut still tells me that AQ should still be a good flop cbet at least, but could be proven wrong again (which would be great). Glad to have a paradigm shift today and learn something new about a spot which I thought was a standard double barrel at least.

Thanks for a cool discussion, guys. I defer to the people that have done the math/sims. My default is prob cbet small vs weaksauces and double barrel most turns, check call flop check decide turn vs strong players.

I think this is a great spot to check raise turn.

I just don't think that check flop is necessarily giving up on the pot. The flop will check through quite a bit and there are plenty of ways that hero ends up winning the pot after that.

Thanks for the responses. On the turn I bet $360, he shipped ~$1200 total, I folded.

Renton I agree with a lot of what you wrote. HH2010, if you have any more analysis or conclusions based on your CREV work, please post. Thanks

What is the purpose of the flop bet?

If we're cbetting QQ,KK,AA, wouldn't you think a hand like AQ with a bdfd makes a good candidate for betting?

If we're checking this hand, which I agree may be the best option, we're probably checking most of our range, like QQ+?

Your question is tough for me becuase I don't think I can answer it with a simple "value" or "bluff". I'll try to answer by posing more questions.

Do you think c-betting AQ w/ a bdfd, double,triple barreling favorable runouts do better or worse than checking vs. his pocket pairs?

How about vs his middling connectors, suited connectors, one-gap/2-gap, etc.?

To me, the answer isn't that clear. My gut tells (or told) me betting does better vs both but I could be wrong.

Obviously checking to c/f does better vs the part of his range that is trips+ which is a definitely an important part of the overall ev equation. On the other hand, this is a very small % of his range combinatorially, especially given how wide he is presumably flatting pf.

I'm not thrilled about your bdfd. And I think you might be complicating things a bit. I mean I get a flop bet as a part of a 3 barrel plan to just fold out an entire range, but this is not a good flop for it, and the opponent isn't ideal either.

So your bet should be a bluff/semi bluff or for value basically. And since you have no real draw, you don't fold out better, and you don't get called by worse (that is going to let you win), I think it's illogical.

And ftr, it's a c/c IMO, not a c/f. I mean what better way to protect your range?

2 hundo pre

x/f flop ~ bet >> rest

400 now

DGAF,

What hands in a normal 3betting range for hero would you cbet this flop with?

And under what circumstances are you x/c'ing 2 to 3 streets, x/r'ing a certain street, x/f'ing a certain street? What turns/rivers are you looking for specifically? I realize an encyclopedia could be written on this but maybe like top three lines you could take with certain runouts.

FWIW I would x/c this more often than not as well just bc I think it's better than x/f and I don't think described villain is folding anything ever to a cbet and I don't really want to double/triple this texture.

I'd prefer to just discuss this specific hand/spot. Poker is hard enough without telling a bunch of people you play with your default with your entire range in fairly common spots. No offense...

Having said that, I believe villain is iso'ing very wide to 60 and then he knows we know that and he is calling the 120 more with all but the most rio hands. This is pretty standard when a good player/someone who plays bigger 6x's the button after a couple jokers limp in 5-10 and then gets 3bet by what I assume is a pro/at least competent player, no?

So I don't hate our equity on this flop. We have the best hand a good amount, 2 overs almost the entire rest of the time, and only occasionally we are destroyed. Check/call/check reps everything we want to rep IMO...