Hero: Perceived by Villain as very strong, thinking player. Hero is known to make moves. Recent hand from another session involved Hero snapping off Villain with Ace-high on scary board after Hero's bet-bet-check/call line. Losing image for the night.

Villain: Thinking player but not spectacular. Not sure if he would turn medium-strength hands into bluffs but could. Will get it in with air if he senses weakness.

***

7 handed, 5-5 uncapped, Effective Stacks are $500.

Hero (UTG+1) has AJ

Hero raises to $25, CO calls, Villain (BTN) calls.

Flop ($75):

J94

Hero bets $45, CO folds, Villain calls.

Turn ($165):

J948

Hero bets $105, Villain tank calls.

thoughts: Not a great turn and I plan to bet/fold. I think I can get value from worse Jacks and pair+draw hands such as JT, 9T, 78. I expect him to raise sets on the flop and his stronger holdings on the turn, generally, so I don't think I'm bet/folding the best hand very often.

River ($370):

J948K

Hero checks, Villain bets $215, Hero ???

thoughts: I think betting here is way too thin - I don't think I get looked up by QJ or JT very often and KJ is now ahead. Plan is to check and let him bet his missed-draws and medium-strength hands. I guess the main issue here is whether he's going to turn a hand like JT or 9T into a bluff here. I see weak players check back hands as strong as KJ/KQ here, but I don't think villain would do that.

Once he bets I think his range is something like: KJ, 9T, 78 and sometimes slowplayed QT, 2 pairs. Could also have complete air but I think he has some equity with the way he tanked on turn. Could possibly have KQ?? Thoughts?

fyp

might as well call, its just money and you'll never know what he has if you fold.

I think villain shows up with the winner really often though.

thanks for the input. from my experience most villains' (even at 5/5 and 5/10) riverbetting range is very polarized to bluffs and monsters.

if he raises sets and 2Pair earlier in the hand, we're really looking at a river range of:

hands we lose to: QT, KJ, possibly KQ

hands we beat: 9T, possibly JT, 78

what do you think his range here is?

KQ is never in his range after calling the second barrel ott
78 folds flop

But another hand you beat is T8, it's way more logical to call flop with an oesd that a gutter with KQ (even if you have overs), let alone a gutter drawing to the sucker hand of the str8 like 78

i think this guy in particular could have KQ and 78 just because he likes to call with air and make moves, but i guess they just cancel each other out in the end anyway.

He probably doesn't turn a smaller pair into a bluff too often unless you did something like really disgustedly check the river, since we could check a rivered KT or KQ hand here figuring worse won't call too often, and since he won't be positive that we'll fold a jack/QQ to a river bet.

Also while I think he raises J9 on the flop a lot, I could see him flatting turn with QT and turned 2 pairs a bunch hoping we either keep barreling/valuecutting ourselves on the river and figuring we might bet/fold QQ-AA on the turn.

Lastly, river aggression is just so rare even from a thinking player in live poker. Obv there are a ton of exceptions but folding in these spots shouldn't make you too exploitable.

The thread title needs some work. If 78 is in his floating range he is not a thinking player.

I'd bet 60 on the flop, b/f 140 on the turn, and c/f the river.

why bother saying its uncapped if effective stacks are 500 lol

Ranges And perceived ranges change because other players at table at deep with me (which is why I said I covered villain)

Yeah I don't see how you can do anything but c/f this river.

The only thing you beat is a made hand turned into a bluff and it takes a particularly competent villain to pull this off.

Thanks all. I called and v had 9T

I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt but this really seems like some sort of brag thread. Why bother posting if you had all the right reads and made the correct play?

actually, i made a mistake - villain had 89 for 2p and won.

amd the results aren't important. just because i won/lost the hand doesn't mean the decision/thinking is correct. we play vs ranges.

I play vs ranges too and this isn't a hard spot unless you have a specific read that he turns a lot of pairs into bluffs here or just loves to float. I thought it was a brag post because it seems like an easy fold but you said you called and won. My mistake.