hi there
this hand was played recently in live full ring casino

hero is TAG, sitting with 2000, clean image to vilain

Vilain is aggressive, somwhow not so good approx 1000

Vilain limped MP at this point we can discount premium hands.

button loose player limp.

Hero raises with QQ in BB to 60

both players call , pot is 180

flop 995r

Hero bets 90,
btn looks like folding and vilain tanked 5s and calls

turn pot is 360, turn is a J openning a fd

Hero bets 220 into 360
Vilain 10s approx and raises to 450 leaving approx 350 behind

Hero?

Hero folds with one pair to a turn raise as he always does without any good reason not to.

Alsi,
So first, your raise pre-flop could be a little bit larger. The way it is played, counting the small blind 5$ we have 185 in the pot and you have $ 1940 left behind. The spr is 10.5 for you, but, the villain only has 1k in his stack, 940 at the flop, so the real SPR is 5 for him. This is not very bad for you. You have 2 queens, which figures to be good on this flop a high percentage of the time. Before you bet the flop you need to be aware that any play the villain makes after this is likely to commit him to the pot. At that point he can't be folded. (unless he is unaware of this)
You bet 90 on flop, button folds and villain calls making pot 365, and his stack shrinks to 850. (lets look at his hand range and see what we are beating)...this should have been done on flop as well.
AA-TT, 99, 88-66, 55, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, any 9...9T, J9, Q9, this obviously is pretty broad, but the idea is to look at a range and narrow it. Since he is likely to have raised preflop or reraised you with premium pairs, we can discount them. AK and AQ have little to stay in on turn with, unless it picks up flush draw. 99 55 would want to raise here to fade a straight or flush card on river that may scare you, however, you look like you have a big pair and are drawing thin to those hands. Also, since it is apparent you have forgetten to count his stack and don't know the commitment level is long gone, I don't think he is raising here with trips or a boat.
I think trips are less likely than the straight draws and flush draws because of the limited number of hands he can have with them.(there are many more straight draws and flush draws than 9's in the deck.)
The pot is 1030 and it costs 230 to call. That is about 4.4 to 1.

You have to have a plan when you bet the turn. You can't fold to that bet with the pot odds and the good chance that you are best here against likely a pair of Jacks, and maybe a straight draw or a naked flush draw.
It is a bad spot for you, but I think instead of calling, since you can not fold on the river you push all in now.

When you bet this turn, you are committed to the hand and have to auto stuff the turn over his bet, or, if he is really a bluffer type...you call and call any river...he is not folding here if you stuff anyway..that way, if you are ahead, you give him the chance to bluff off on the end. That however lets him fold overcards when he misses on the end.

The J on the turn is not really a bad card for you. What were you thinking about when you bet? You should be betting there to charge the draws against you, and you would only need to make 1/2 pot or a hair larger to make the best draws dump....but those would be QT suited which with one card is still a good dog and say AK suited, which is not nearly as likely to be out there....you are in good shape with one card to go.

With what you bet on turn, stuff the rest in and see what he has....without much to go on from villain other than he is aggressive, you have to use the pot and your odds to make the decision.

Next time, consider the stacks in play and maybe check the turn to him and see what he does. That will likely keep you from playing for stacks.

thanks for detailed analysis aw schmidts31

this was a reversed HH
I was the weak player vilain and I did not have a 9/J/5 and as you say QQ is face up here (at least I put him on QQ ??

he end up folding -should we assume (I said he had QQ it was pure guessing ) AK or pair below 9 (or TT) or Air as it played out?

I totally floated him and put up a min raise bluff


ps: OTF i was MP and called before btn s fold : but i noticed he was folding before I call

If you shove 100BB with Queens on a 955 J board every time against a limp/caller, you will burn money unless villain is described as 'complete morron, likes to call with Ace high'.

@schmidts31: A5s , 56s, 45s maybe 57s are a big part of his range here. Also 55,99 and maybe J9s. He will flat most other pairs.

Just c/c or c/f turn depending on villain, history and guts.

Not sure about the burning money. I think it comes down to what villain would figure is his SPR for commitment. If it is 4-5 and he is committed on that flop, It does not matter what the opponent has. He is going to put his money in, and should play as such. That is why I like a little bit bigger raise before the flop, to get the SPR into the 4 range with QQ. Then, so be it if they are against a 9. If the opponent is willing to put in that amount of money before the flop with the stack that QQ has, he is not going to make a call to hit the 5 enough to make it worth while.

Maybe a 9 is part of the range, but honestly, if that is the case, and he is willing to call the raise pre-flop and face a bet on the flop against a committed player, so be it. 4-5 spr is not a bad spot with QQ. The flop and turn action are not independent of the pre-flop action; we can't make it like that to predict an outcome. Against some players you would want a lower spr than 4 to commit with QQ, others, 5-6 would be comfortable, but once you commit to the hand, you don't change your mind on it.

As for the switching of the villain and hero, OP, I had the idea you did that due to the limper looking like folding and then you did not state that. I like the post and it gets you thinking. Nice Job in doing so. What did you hold exactly?

the most important is what I rep so we can evaluate whether this pattern is good

as you Took time to answer I will give u out my hand for free it was 22...probably with some leveling he would even call with A high putting me on 78s!

that says if I had a 9 or 55 - then if u say OR should fold then I play is bad,
if u say OR should shove then the play is good


that also says if I had air - and u say OR should fold then my play is good
the opposite would proves that my play is bad.

I usually buy in for 80bb and seen as a scared money weak player probably - (just started playing 5/10 2 months ago not yet confident for 200bb deep )
I want to collect all tools to play with my current image until I get +40 x100bb buy in to attack upper level eg 10/20

no history with vilain u fold 75%?

Alsi,

I like your thoughts and your play. I also like that you buy in for 80 big blinds. It is enough to have room for a specific play and also easy enough for you to commit with. As you should gather from my thoughts, I have very little to go on with the villain in your hand. I am speaking from the position of the BB who we thought should have possibly QQ. In that context, why I am saying to play the way I described, using the stacks to define my play is to avoid making a mistake of throwing away the best hand too often. That is why I recommended the BB raising a little more preflop(to get the pot a little bigger and define the villain limper's hand more.)

This also creates the spr that we want to be willing to commit post flop to the hand. That being said, that is just game theory. In my mind and the ideas I have on game theory, you keep yourself from losing much money playing that way. It is also difficult to make a lot, because it is hard to exploit a tendency of your opponent.

I really like your play on the turn. I also believe that the BB did not take your stack into play. He should not bet the turn if he is not committed to the pot. You already have a good chunk in before you make the turn raise. He can not profitably fold in the long run in that spot after betting the turn and folding to your raise. I think it was a poor decision or lack of making a sound decision before betting.

ON the other side of my idea is this...I "generally" try to play with my spr numbers to decide commitment on the flop. However, I think that there are times that there are more profitable alternatives to making more money than just going with the commitment idea and shoving over your raise on the turn.

In this case specifically, obviously, he picks off your river bluff if you decide to fire the river. Your turn raise is very small, and assuming it was me in the BB with QQ, when I make the turn bet, I am committed and am going to shove over the top of you, or call and call the river. I am not being results oriented here due to knowing what happened, that is just how we use the information of our opponents and the given situation to make the most profitable decision.

An argument against my idea of play around commitment to the hand is that a 9 or 55 certainly has to be in your range. Yes, that is true, as I am positive you have shown that previously to be the case. However, like I said, there is plenty of profit to be made from just playing those suspected QQ preflop for say 70-75$. Now we have an even better amount going in preflop...if you decide to call and hit your nine or 5, it wont be often enough to offset the times you miss, or hit a bit and lose more money. That is what I am getting at. The BB likely had nothing as well. I actually think 22 is leading here a decent percentage of the time. He is probably done firing with a middle pair and would check flush draws, so I do think you are able to likely put him on a tighter hand range.

Your play is excellent. It reads his hand range well, and takes advantage of not only that range, also an excellent turn play. I think worse players make the raise on the flop. You do it on the turn. We are representing a 9 or 55 obviously.
The other part here, is that he should be committed to QQ at this point, he has put in too much money. You are giving him over 4-1 on the call, BUT, you do have 350 behind. I would like to say the extra leverage did the job, but I don't think he had much. I think that is more likely than saying this player dumped QQ in that spot.
I explained this out, because I did not want you to think this is a mechanical play by the BB. It is not, however, asking on the turn what to do, when you have bet half your opponents stack is not a very good way to go about playing. FWIW, I would have either shoved my QQ on the turn over your raise, or called and called any river. ( assuming I was committed when betting the turn in the first place.)
That makes it hard to exploit very much. Now, that may not be anywhere near the best way to make the most money on the hand, but it is a general approach to take when playing with someone that you don't know much about.

I liked your post and your thoughts. Good luck with your improvement.

It is not 100BB anymore. WE bet 60 pre, 90 post and 220 on turn for 370 of the villain's stack of 1000. Are we really putting in 37% of the effective stack and folding to a raise often enough to remain profitable?

I understand where you are going GG, but having little information on the opponent, I would much rather let the stacks determine my commitment threshold, rather than guessing he has the monster under the bed. If you are dumping the turn, well then yes, it is obviously better to C/C turn and river or C/F river. However, if you are committed to the hand, there is nothing to stop you from putting more money in the pot. I think that a 995 flop with QQ is about as good as it can get, really.

How often are you checking the turn here if you are the BB with QQ. It seems you like the line of C/C or C/F better.

leaving me 350 behind looks like I am shoving any river. changing the call to a more likely 580 to win 1300 cerca

I realize lately that my plays work better when I am left with 50-80bb I realize that ppls consider short stack few bluffs and 150bb + from loose players = always bluff...

also because the hammer of the river bet is much more likely with shortsstack

but then I manage to get huge payoff when i hit ...


As for this hand, he never has a 9 here unless super tricky , while the 9 is fully in my range (I am MP, not EP) and i am kind of super weak loose preflop (watching way too much tom dwan videos lool)

thats funny. Yes, I agree it is unlikely he has a 9. He should not have to worry about that though. He should be committed to the pot when he bets the turn. IF you have a 9 or 55 oh well. That is the point of him making a little larger raise pre flop. He is getting you to put money in when missing most of the time, or worse, hitting just enough to keep going.

When we have more information on the player, yes it is much easier to deviate from game theory and levels of commitment, but the probabilities of flopping trips or a set are so low, you are more likely to hit just a piece of it rather than a huge chunk.

I just think him betting the turn and folding is a very bad play that is all.

Calling OTF with player behind surely could have helped you rep a v strong hand and helped fold out BB. That being said, I doubt you got BB to fold QQ. Depending on the style of BB, with QQ, the line most TAG would take would be OTF: B, OTT: B/R or OTF: B, OTT: C/C, OTR: C/Evaluate. From the bettors perspective, if you had raised out of the blinds then saw a flop of 995r, it's an easy spot to c-bet and barrel off until someone stops you.

At least you bluffed A high for the pot, ngai.

Yes, and i feel good about it. Against some players, i will fold 100%. And i am known as a station.

I´m not chekking the turn. I understand your thinking and i like it.

But i don´t feel comitted, i bet the turn primary to deny equity and only secondary as a value bet.

Once turn is raised, it´s just a simple math question of 'how often are we good ?' , and from my experience this is a verly low % in a vacuum here.

On a side note: I wouldn´t call this the perfect flop for QQ. Against many limpers this will be a way ahead/way behind situation. I prefer some draws in the flop in order to get value from a wide range of hands.

I think we are way ahead more often than not.

at 100bb deep i think turn check is close with a 6bb raise 3way pot.
as the hand developped the guy (me) range is very polarized OTT.

deeper I think u Rarely (but not never) bet 3 street OOP vs unknown on this board , it is not easy to call a river RAI vs a good LAG

Oops I did it again...

this time more spewy:
3 way pot raised to 30 pre
pot is 90 i call 60 from OR in EP with XX on QT7rag
turn 7 rag, he bet 215 into 215, i raised to 450, he tanked call
river A, he checked i shoved for 480 into 1115
Vilain?.

I am putting him on KQ/KK here...?

am I reasonably repping Trips/fh somewhere?? or I just got lucky OTR because of the A and he thinks I might have semi bluffed with AJ/KJ OTT if I was not yet on trips?

It is about the only hand you can rep here, which is a problem. His turn bet and your raise pretty much shuts out the straight draw. The thing is, he should not be worried about the Ace too much, it does not fit with the play. Anything other that AQ should really just go away on the turn, if the Ace helps you. So when you raise the turn, what are you playing? You made a half pot raise on turn, almost a min raise, which looks like you are trying for value, but only a Q or better is likely calling there. You would likely have to have a 7 or TT in this spot is what you are repping. He is getting 4-1 on the call on the end. That is almost embarrassing to fold to. The thing is, in position, why would you want to blow him off the hand possibly on the turn if you are nutted at the top of your range?

Not that what you are repping is not impossible here, but there are only a few hands that make those combos that work.
What happened?

he tanked folded.

I tabled it for image - one of them was like "I didnt know u played like that" lol..

A decent Pro said I was lucky because he would call if no A on the river...that makes me realize that I was spewy

Like I said, Where does the Ace fit into the equation? I don't see that ace doing much. A lot of players lock up when an ace hits the end. In reality, how could the ace help you? Where does it fit in your range of hands as the pot was played? Most people see the Ace hit the end and think immediately what the "pro" said. What they should really be thinking about is how that Ace fits into your hand with your play. I think it is much easier for them to give up and believe that is a bad card, rather than break down the problem of identifying your likely hand range and the equity versus that range.

It is also very easy for someone to see the hand and see what you have and say I would have called you. It is BS and bravado most of the time. First, he is giving away information...which I would not do to someone I think bluffs a bit much.

The other guy, you surprised him...now he will look you up...so show up against him with the goods when you make a play like this against him!

well fflop float and the only semi bluffs there (if no trips or full house) are KJ/AJ/AK so KQ and KK are no longer good with ace on the river?