Quote:
Originally Posted by TTTTTTTTWO
Hero: just sat down...this might be my 5th hand, no one knows me, it's only my 5th time at this casino. College student
Thoughts on flop and turn play? Also during this time there was a 500$ bonus for high hand every 30 min.
1. Your chances of hitting the straight flush (2 outs twice) are 8%, and you're a virtual lock to collect the jackpot if you do. At $500, the present value of your jackpot chances are $40.00. For the benefit of any reader who doesn't pay attention to jackpots and promotions, this means that the expectation cost of betting everyone out of the pot before you can complete your high hand is $40 which must be weighed against the benefits of a bet. This does affect hand strategy but don't let it rule your decisions.
2. On the river, a call would cost you $400 to win something like $1650 (not a precise figure, I lost my calculator in a game of 8-card No-Peekie in the parking lot). On the one hand, that may be a crying call; on the other, what opponent would bluff with such short pot odds?
3. Turn bet sizing was a disaster from stack ratio standpoint; see #2. As many others have noted, you should have got it all in then when you had both a made hand and 20 outs to improve.
4. Flop raise was good from an equity standpoint as you were 20 outs twice to improve (~72% approximately; unfortunately I bet my pencil and notepaper in a game of Old Maid next to the dumpster), but sizing was probably a stack ratio mistake, as it put you in the uncomfortable region where you're nearly, but not quite, pot committed if you miss on the turn. As the small stack, you should be putting OTHER people in uncomfortable stack ratio spots.