$5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

BTN: $525.00
Hero (SB): $1200

Button straddles for $20. Fish in his 40s. Preflop I'd estimate he's running something like ~40/7. Have seen him call down fairly light in past sessions (perhaps when slightly on tilt or trying to get back to even), but this session has been playing a little tighter postflop (has already l/c, c/f about 4 out of 6 flops vs. me this session). I don't recall having seen him show down any bluffs, but I haven't been paying close enough attention.

Pre Flop: ($35.00) Hero is SB with A K
Hero raises to $70, 7 folds, BTN calls $50

Flop: ($155.00) J 9 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

My plan was to c/shove flop (stacks are almost perfect for it, and a cbet is hardly ever taking this down).

Turn: ($155.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $125, BTN calls $125

River: ($425.00) 5 (2 players)

Hero ?

Given all the worse Ax combos (my assumption is he'll call down with the vast majority of them)...Is the EV of shoving river for $325 > EV of c/c?

Given all the combos of missed oesds/gutters/clubs, this might look like a typical spot to c/c. But in all your experience vs. this villain type...with what % of his busted draw combos is he actually betting on the river when checked to?

Just shove, all his Tx and miss draws you hope to bluff catch by checking would bet the flop. Im pretty sure he has Ax here a ton...

Well its certainly greater than the EV of c/cing as that honestly might be negative. I'd bet smaller OTT and on the river bet an amount that can get called by a jack.

I think a lot of hands you are hoping will bluff river would have bet the flop. So shove > x/c I believe


P.S. I appreciate the formatting of your hh, easy to read

Initially i was thinking to x/c but this post changed my mind. If he bets river I think it is a medium strength showdown hand on the flop that improved (A8/A9) as well as slowplays

I think you've got your answer. You could also bet a smaller amount that his weak Ax might call if you don't think he's calling a shove with it, maybe bet like $180 (he has like $330 left I think).

P hard for him to have worse then an Ace and pay you. He prob bets most of his hands on the flop when checked to him lol. And A is worse card for him to continue.