Hero is dealt AA

Hijack (fish) limps. I raise to 40 co. Btn (break even live reg) flats. Sb (fish) flats. Bb folds. Hijack calls

Flop K 9 8
Checks to me, hero bets 105 only Sb calls

Turn 7
Sb leads for 400! hero? He has 800 behind

To make this more interesting, please state what you think the EV of shoving or calling is. EV of folding is zero. So for instance if you think folding is by far the best play followed by calling then jamming. Then you would say calling would have a negative -90 in EV and jamming would have a -159 in EV. I just want to get a measure of how close you think the decision is.

Thanks!

Sorry correction he donks 300, not 400

Blahhhhhh this spot is so ridiculousm call turn call most rivers

I would always jam in this spot here. You're probably about a 70/30 or 60/40 on the turn which means he has a lot of outs, but you are ahead.

prob should fold turn against a rando 40 year old in live poker.

No other reads on SB besides being a fish? Racial profile or one sample hand, anything at all we can use? Wat's your img? If he had bet 400 I prob just fold bc I don't expect a random loose-passive fish to ever use a bluff card or bet anything less than AK so big. I guess 300 is still kinda big for a fish but now I just call bc he could have KQ/KJ and there's a rly good chance he gives me a bet sizing read or something I can work with on the river. But this is 100% a hand he thinks is best and he's protecting v the fd/sd. Jamming is way the worst option without more dynamic btwn you two.

Call turn soul read river. I don't think you're good here very ofter vs. random fish that takes this line. I could see maybe if he donked turn as a blocker but obviously this is not a blocker. If he has a hand that he is scared with after you call he will most likely check river and you can thin value him. If he ships it he most likely has it obv. When loose passives all of a sudden come alive and start betting pot or close to pot OOP I tend to give them credit...

It'd be nice to have a better read on the fish. But with just that read and my hand, my reasoning is that:

He's a fish.

He donked on a draw heavy board.

If he turned a straight, wouldn't he check-raise me, since i'm so aggressive?

I have aces.

I'd love to know what he thought of you fwiw. Something like +25 EV?

+1 to needing way more info. I mean we have him pegged as a fish so it is not like he is an unknown.

Against fish as I most commonly encountered them this is a pretty easy fold. Combos of straights and flopped monsters that suddenly shot a brick about a scary board.

I mean without any info this has to be a fold......i havent stoved it, but giving him a range of say JT,79,10-12 flush combos and maybe AK for old times sake, I doubt we have enough equity to continue.

sigh fold imo, I doubt If i do this in real time tho, I think this is just one of those spots that you will see the nuts from a fish

Accepting that there is only the limited info given then a fish is a fish, and his range is loaded with 2-pair combos here. Nuff said. If your facing a large bet from a fish ott, and you cant beat bottom 2, your most likely beat.

For a lot of fish, a big lead on the turn in a multi way pot is the equivalent of getting check raised. Hard to know without any reads. I think you can narrow his range, by thinking of what hands he might raise the flop with.

I don't think he has a lone king very often here. I think his range is weighted towards hands that beat you and FD's he's getting stubborn/creative with.