nothing too crazy. just looking for thoughts on each street.

Hero ($1400) - just moved to table
Reg in MP (~$3k) - no info on his playstyle, have only been at table for one orbit. Knows the other regs at the table and bought in for table max. Based on table talk I infer this player is a regular at this game

Reg in MP opens to $40. Hero calls in HJ with Qd Jd, whale calls from BTN. Blinds fold.

Flop ($135): Ac 5d 7d
MP bets $70, I call, whale folds.

--> figure this is a better spot to flat because MP can have a decent amount of hands that will cb flop then c/f most turns because I can have a decent number of Ax

Turn ($275): Kd
MP grabs chips to bet, is about to put it in the pot, then goes back and grabs an extra $20. He bets $225. I call.

--> figure i'm not going to have many bluff hands on this turn when V bets except for flushes so i decide to flat & merge as opposed to raise. this may be a mistake, but it's how i think most live players perceive an unknown player's raising range on this turn.

River ($725): 5c

MP asks if I have any big chips and then quickly bets $1.1k and puts me all in.

--> no live player balances bluffs in this spot, no? this is a sad fold?

I think the hand is well played and that we have to call the river.

I'd imagine you're raising 55/77 on the flop, so this is one of the best hands we can have? We block the most likely AXdd hands, but not the Ad specifically.

Tough spot, really curious what other people think.

How is this anything but a snap call?

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he could be jamming worse ... no way you could ever fold here.

I think you played it fine up to the river. Now make an exploitable fold and pat yourself on the back. He isn't overbet shoving for value with worse, so you really only have a bluff catcher. He isn't playing the naked A like this, nor is he shoving a small flush with here. You do block a couple of the combos of Axdd, but there are so many hands that he can have that beat you.

Call river. 3bet pre sometimes but prefer deeper stack. Not much else you should/can do on all other streets in vacuum.

I think you have to call the river bet. There is a wider range of hands that do beat you but you also beat a wide majority of hands yourself. AdKx could play this line almost identically or any Ad hand.

I wouldn't have minded a raise on the turn either. Your hand may play a little face up but its also a good bluff card for that same reason. If you would bet here on a bluff you should raise your made flush.

Raise turn.

As played, call river. He could be doing this with worse.

Pre and Flop looks good.

I would raise the turn; yes we block the 2nd nut flush but when he just blasts the pot I think we have so little fold equity we should just raise it up. We block a bunch of his potential bluffs like QdJx too.

I think its useful to think about what we want to do with other hands here to check for contradictions; if we think turning a hand like A3s into a bluff is setting money on fire then this is a must raise IMO unless he loves to mindlessly barrel off.

River as played I would call.

raising turn here versus a semi decent reg would be turning our hand face up, we have 0 bluffs after floating flop and he is still very much uncapped. If anything I think calling turn with this combo is very clear, river might be debatable but still a call imo.

Hand is well played, now call.

This.

Come on, show of hands on how many of you go ape**** with bare Ad or QT/JT w/ Td vs. an unknown. <Crickets>

Let's count some combos. Let's say all nut flushes and half flopped sets/2 pair that boated up. So about 14 value combos. That means he needs something like 9ish bluff combos for us to bluff catch. So he needs to be bluffing A9-AQ or QT-JT (if he even has those in his range) w/ Ad or Td at ~43% frequency.

So there are two conditions for this to be a call.

1) He needs to be opening A9o+, JT+ and bluff w/ Ad or Td at ~ 43% frequency or higher

or

2) He opens ATo+ and bluffs Ad or Td at 75% frequency or higher

Neither scenario seems realistic when referring to general player pool reads, which is all we have to work with.

why do you discount smaller flushes?

Ok, another show of hands. How many bet ~pot on turn and then overbet shove small flushes in this spot? What do you expect to get value from?

I'm raising flop at greater frequency than calling

Turn I may raise sometimes but calling is fine too. I would raise with 68o here as well.

River is gross but I'd actually fold. I made a fold like this yesterday actually, only mine was on turn. (Not sure if I was right!)

The interesting part of this hand to me is that the guy seemed to think his hand was the nuts on both the turn and the river, which makes me think he might be bad. If he were a true unknown then I'd be tempted to shrug and call, but just knowing that he's a reg makes it less likely that he's going to show up with something dumb like AK with this action.

Most of the time when I go back for more chips, I am not thinking about value but rather fold equity so his action on the turn just screams weakness imo

But with that said, I'd elect to raise small on the turn (pre and flop are fine) because hands like Adx, AK, sets will call most of the time and sometimes you might even induce a shove. These are hands that many times will fold the river if a brick comes since V is a reg and I'd assume regs can fold these type of hands.

And by raising, you are setting yourself better for shoving the river while getting value from villain's draws. Sure, you might make V fold out some weak hands and bluffs but these are hands that will fold the river to a bet regardless.....

The river is a sick spot and as played I lean towards a call...I might literally flip a coin here

Click back Turn, fold river.

He's never shoving with a smaller flush, Ad or AK.

Thanks all for the comments. Fwiw, I think that if I'm folding QJdd on this river then I'm going to be massively overfolding in this spot. I think what this ultimately came down to for me is whether this is a good spot to make an exploitable fold versus a live 5/10 reg who, in general, I expect to not be balancing enough bluffs in this spot.

I figure that most live regs do not expect unknown players to be folding flushes on the river. Correspondingly, I thought it was very unlikely V was turning a hand like 68 or 89 into a bluff (if V even has those hands in his opening range). I also feel like most players don't bluff in this spot without a strong diamond blocker -- likely candidates include the two cards that are impossible for V to have - Qd or Jd -- and that Ax takes a different line

Esp. considering V potting turn and slightly overbetting river, felt like a pretty nutted line. I figured along the same lines of daniel9861 and others, that V likely isn't just spazzing with Td/Ad vs an unknown, and that smaller flushes don't take this line (and there aren't even too many smaller flushes - 89dd? 68dd? 9Tdd?). Kinda sucks but I folded to 14 value combos without being able to identify many candidate bluff hands. In any case, was hoping this was a good spot to get an edge in a game where I likely will not have repeated interactions with this player.

River is a clear call theory wise.

As for the actual in-game decision, it's pretty close. I don't mind folding but it might not be best. I think a lot of regs are way underbluffing here, and some decent percentage of the time he's not betting the turn with naked Adx. which are the best hand types to bluff this river.

He's got around 7~ fullhouse/quads and probably has all the AdXd flushes, and 9d8d, Td9d, Td8d, and maybeee 8d6d.

Stove just his value range and then see how many bluffs you need to add before it becomes a BE call.