Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
I think you played it fine up to the river. Now make an exploitable fold and pat yourself on the back. He isn't overbet shoving for value with worse, so you really only have a bluff catcher. He isn't playing the naked A like this, nor is he shoving a small flush with here. You do block a couple of the combos of Axdd, but there are so many hands that he can have that beat you.
This.
Come on, show of hands on how many of you go ape**** with bare Ad or QT/JT w/ Td vs. an unknown. <Crickets>
Let's count some combos. Let's say all nut flushes and half flopped sets/2 pair that boated up. So about 14 value combos. That means he needs something like 9ish bluff combos for us to bluff catch. So he needs to be bluffing A9-AQ or QT-JT (if he even has those in his range) w/ Ad or Td at ~43% frequency.
So there are two conditions for this to be a call.
1) He needs to be opening A9o+, JT+ and bluff w/ Ad or Td at ~ 43% frequency or higher
or
2) He opens ATo+ and bluffs Ad or Td at 75% frequency or higher
Neither scenario seems realistic when referring to general player pool reads, which is all we have to work with.