think this is a pretty easy fold. guy has a set here 99% of the time.

I fold. Just had this hand yesterday more or less.

Call.

Can we really call here and then fold the river getting around 2.5-1 or better? That seems pretty gross to me. I think if we call turn we cannot fold the river without being super exploitable.

Man, I hate this spot. As others have said it is a set a lot of the time, but I know I out-level myelf a ton in these situations by convincing myself that "this time he is going crazy with a draw or overpair."

As one other said, I think with the benfit of time and hindsight, this is probably a pretty clear fold versus THIS villain, but in the heat I get trapped by this spot all the time.

+1 to this. It really comes down to is the villian of bluffing this much this deep ever? In general I would say no, but obviously everyone is different.

Does anyone ever make a minish 3bet here? I think this pretty much allows villian to shove all his sets and fold basicly everything else except the rare open ender I guess, but it allows us to win the pot instead of having to guess when he makes it 3k on the river. Also, say we call/eval turn and he checks, do we make a smallish vbet? Really need more info on villian to make an informed decision, all we have is he is a pro who isn't a lagtard or a nit.

sigh fold imo

Interesting on the min 3b. Hadn't thought that through. I suppose it saves us $1900 if villain 4b shoves turn so I like it better than calling and folding river to the 3k bet. But I am not sure that we are deep enough to do this without quad-range-merge levelling ourselves into calling the shove since the odds will be so compelling. I guess we have to think V would ONLY shove with a set before we can make this play.

I guess I like it a lot more if we were say 10k deep instead of 5k.

^ hmmm.... so its essentially "raising for information" which helps us save money if we are indeed up against a set AND it is based on the reasonable assumption that villain NEVER shoves back without TT/JJ or something.

If villain calls, and checks river we probably check back? If villain calls the 3b and ships river, do we fold? lol?

Yes that was how I see it but I would think we have to be CERTAIN that he won't shove without a set because otherwise we are simply torching $$. Not sure if we hav that good a read on this villain.

Agree that if we do min 3b and villain calls and checks river, I think we check back as it would seem villain's calling range is very narrow (22 only maybe?...hard to think of anything else). And your last point is why I am not sure we can make this play as the odds would be sooo tasty to call a river ship at that point since we arent deep enough.

I still like the thought process a lot though and think in a deeper spot versus a villain we have a great read on, it is a great 3b/fold play that will save $$.