weirdest spot I've seen in a while

def need to add the smaller combos to his range though, and forget about over pairs imo.

stuffing is never horrible, but prob call and let him play the turn oop.

I really wasn't thinking this at the time it's a pretty good point, if we call we only get paid on the straight outs and he probably folds to the clubs.
So I guess this makes shoving the best option.

Does anyone think flatting the original flop bet is a better play, than raising the flop ?

No - you lose too much equity with only 1 card to go..

Conversely, your hand seems significantly stronger when you raise the turn.

BUT, what happens when he 3bets you on the turn? You will be forced to painfully fold the combo draw you have been patiently waiting for all night.

I think most of the action is pegged on what his range is.

I'd flat the first time around.

Shoving for a > pot size raise is absurd. Call, save some equity and variance on board pairing turns, and use your positional advantage in a massive pot for crying out loud.

It's slightly less than a pot sized raise since matching 650 more makes the pot 2170 and we started with 3k eff so we'd be shoving for just under 2k.

stuff it in run it three times brik on all three and have him flip over top two.......rebuy!!!!

So your plan is to flat with PSB left on turn? When you miss then what. When you hit do you get it all or get stacked? Just gii and run it multiple times this spot is kinda awkward flatting makes it moreso. With more info flatting the raise can be OK but otherwise gii.

Also raise bigger on flop.

Lmao - Swollie is the villain in this thread.

What % of his flop c-bets do you think 3-bet the flop?

Probably bets out all pps but really op could answer that better and is pretty important as to how this hand is played.

That's pretty much what I was asking he had been pretty tight all night which is why I raised the flop because I expect his flop 3 bet percentage to be very low, and I expected a call. But when he dose 3 bet the flop I figure he's never gonna fold. So the point I was asking is if he never folds should we still be shipping it.

So can we know the outcome of the hand now?

<

Sick brag

Outcome was we got it in ran it 3 times and I lost all three he had top 2

This spot is kind of close in a vacuum, but if you are playing with regular opponents you need to gii and it's not close in any way. Your gii range should be something like middle set, top set, AcTc and this hand. In fact maybe you should be getting it in with QcTc and QcJc too, even though you would be losing a lot of money on those hands.

In general I am starting to think that suited connectors don't make a lot of money in a vacuum.

i think he really kind of screwed up by 3betting so small. def would flat/reval here.

you know if he just straight jammed on you, it would be about 2600 to win 3500
so you would actually have to fold, but its like 42% so only 2% off of 40%, which is your worst case scenario if he has a set. so i think jam is fine, unless we know for 100% certainty he has a set. in which case its a flat

I know we shouldn't be results oriented here, but this result is helping me in terms of assigning broader flop ranges to most players. I was firmly in the "flat and play turn camp" after the 3bet, but I didn't give two pair any consideration in his flop 3b range. Clearly, if he is capable of having this hand, then we can't eliminate as many hands from his 3b flop range as I thought (I was basically using only two NFD's and sets).

So, what it brings home to me is that we should likely shove versus all but the nittiest of players here as his range is wider/our equity is most likely higher than we think.

Great spot...thx for sharing.

I think the results of this hand validate gii flop (or just flatting the original raise). His range is going to include hands he can fold or just be in a really awkward spot. I think flatting the flop 3 bet is going to be more awkward for you whether you hit or not as I don't think you can pick up any extra fe and almost every scare card makes your hand as well as sometimes he will have some bigger flushes. The only argument for balancing sake would just be to flat flops for with all playable hands, but in a live setting with little to no history you should always gii this flop until you are a bit deeper. I think at that point 4 betting pre is your best bet if he will still 3 bet light pop.