i think its drastically different to say something along the lines of "well we induced him to bluff so we have to call down" vs. the reality of how how often someone 3 barrels two thousand dollars as a bluff in a live game.

if a call is warranted i def don't think i would be calling pretty happily here.

how is this the best river card if not the best? his range here consists of way more aces than i can ever have.

i thought he would have a hard time giving me credit for a hand w/ the bet $10, call raise, bet $10 again line after 3betting pre that i would get a lot more action then i should. and tbh i had kind of the perfect hand to do it w/ on this flop & turn.

as with most rec players of this description, i think they are way more opt to call/herocall down lightly when they see something strange vs. take the initiative themselves and barrel their stack off as a bluff if they hold a marginal hand.

i agree with this.

I think I disagree a bit with your characterization of the flop. I guess his equity is fairly polar on it, especially when you hold a king, but a tard probably isn't folding 22-QQ AQ AJ etc to a 40% pot bet. You have to worry a little bit about AK, I suppose, but if his opening range was wide and he sometimes would 4-bet that pre, its not going to be a big part of his range.

The width of his opening range is pretty key here, and the largest variable to contend with. Some proclaimed wackos would be limping a lot of their range and once they open they actually have a pretty snug 20%ish range and AK+ ends up being a significant part of that once they call and this is the flop. If he's opening 40% or whatever, I stand by every opinion I've expressed in this thread.

Because it widens his bluffing range on the river disproportionately. Sometimes the scare card is the best card.

yea all of this is true very good points.

his opening range is def wide thats why i chose to 3bet pre w/ the KQsooted. however I'm not so sure how wide/tight his 3bet calling range is. I'm guessing its prob tighter then his opening range. so AK def will be showing up here a lot i think.

in 2015 i think a lot of recs even crazy recs aren't getting too crazy w/ the AK pre. i think a lot of ppl in general too aren't just trying to get in the AK 200 bb's deep anymore in these games... esp when they have position they are just calling a lot w/ it and seeing a flop. as i said in another reply i think a BIG part of his value range that plays it this way and shoves river is exactly AK... but i block a K so thats the tilting part.

how so? i think the A on the river in this spot is a pretty terrible bluff card for him. what's he trying to rep?

An ace where your hand looks like TT-QQ?

so he's raising flop w/ A high?

so he's trying to merge here when he runs into an ace on the river after raising flop with air and barreling turn (also w/ air) and shoving $1200 on river when he runs into an A expecting me to call w/ TT-QQ? i don't buy it.

I think the poster's idea was that the Ace on the river is the best possible non-improving card because not only is it a blank for both ranges in terms of range mixing, it also blocks AK. But I disagree that AK is a good flat call preflop. I think a 4-betting range that is so polarized as to exclude AK is vulnerable to small 5-bets.

I'd like to see more discussion of the merits of the original squeeze.

You're now giving him way too much credit. You're inducing him to raise with any two. He will continue his bluff most likely on an overcard since it's "scary" and your hand looks like TT-QQ.

He isn't merging ****.

This, end thread, really nice way of saying "WTF??"

I don't agree with a lot of the discussion about the river. Saying that the Ace will widen his bluffing range disproportionately is basically just a guess. There is no math or theory that says he should be bluffing this card more, maybe it tends to be true with the more agro types but I wouldn't make that the focal point of my decision. How he should play the river from a range perspective it figure out what hands he has that can value bet, and then from there he is allowed to bluff x number of combos based on the bet size he chooses. Of course this guy isn't doing that, just pointing out that if anything a card like this should make us face a bet less often, and villain should still be balanced and try to make us indifferent to calling or folding with our bluff catchers.

Seems like we need to try to figure out if he will raise Ax hands on the flop or not first. And if he does raise those hands, will he value shove them on the river? If you don't think both of those are true then I do think he's fairly likely to be bluffing too much. If we assume he doesn't have any Ax, and he has all the suited 2 pair combos in his range preflop, then I'd guess its 6 combos of AK, 5 two pair combos, and 6 set combos. So 17 value combos. Maybe discount some AK if you think he 4 bets it sometimes and call it 4 combos, so 15 total. I didn't look closely at his bet size, but if he potted it that means if he has more than 7.5 bluff combos we should call. He's gonna get to the river with a ton of air if your read is right that he's basically auto raising your flop bet, and continuing on the turn a lot. As long as he's capable of putting in the last bet I would probably call. If he has Ax in his range and will shove it, its lots more value combos and I'd fold the river.

And if we have no idea about any of this, we should call based on where we are in our own range and our blockers. That being said I don't know what your range looks like by the time you get to this river in this way.

read your post 3x. thanks this is dead on. i do agree that w/ the river being an Ace it is less likely we face a bet. when i checked river i expected to win the pot almost always if he didn't put more money in.

to the second part, thats the question i am still unsure about. from my experience w/ aggro rec guys when they raise/bluff flop, barrel turn, then randomly run into what is then top pair on river they either check back a ton to take a showdown or bet really small. against this type of guy if he was pulling a random A hi bluff on flop/turn and paired the Ace on river he's def not the type to just check back (he knows his image) so i expected a small value bet if he ran into an Ace. but i def think he would be the type to raise my flop bet with anything really (but def not barreling off his whole stack too often after doing so).

ya so if the Ace on river blocks him having AK (a hand that he can legit rep) its prob a pretty bad card to try to bluff me with then right?

i think him flatting a 3bet here if he has AK is totally fine actually.

i can def flat in the blind here w/ my hand but didn't really wanna play a 3way pot w/ a good player on btn and tbh my hand isn't that great but plays fine HU oop in a 3bet pot against a rec if i don't already take down the pot pre.

3-betting to get the reg off the hand and the villain to call with a dominated, but a bit more defined range seems nice. Playing a TP (the most likely thing that KQ hits) 200 bb OOP 3-ways with a lot of behind isn't great. It's hard to extract value and if you don't hit, it's hard to see the turn otherwise.

Also FE is nice.

I'm 100% going off your read that he is a wacko. You didn't really say what kind of wacko he is, so I assumed he is overly aggressive and overall bad. I don't see how you could minbet this flop with such a strong hand and not like it when a 'wacko' raises you and shows major aggression going forward...

The fact of the matter is I don't fold hands of this absolute strength in 3b pots to bad players. My line would have been far different than yours, I would have likely bet / bet / shoved most runouts (not this river tho I would check / soulread). That being said, I am quite confused by your post (and many of your responses for that matter) given your line. What exactly were you trying to accomplish with your flop minbet... because given your responses it seems like pot control. If that is the case I have absolutely no idea why you 3b this hand OOP in the first place. This is a fantastic flop (and turn) for your hand and you got the worst player at the table to put a ton of chips in the pot versus you. If this discussions is supposed to be about the river and whether he has enough Ax in his range to justify folding now given the action, I still think the answer is no. Regardless, I am confused by you.

Interested to hear the results though after discussion has dried up. Good thread.

hmmmm

Game flow and image- way more important at commerce bikini season yellow chip nl than all that smart **** bucky104 has been spewing lately .

But seriously, why does no1 care about that itt?

Well does he bluff over 7,5 combos on the river if the read is right and he raises any two on the flop? Yes. Does he v-bet most ax? Maybe 50 %. It all leads up to a trivial call and most posters here haven't done the math exactly because they don't have to.

Definitely agree the Bucky guy is mostly full of ****. But if we knew villain wasn't capable of firing the river often enough, or that he thought we were a calling a station and will never fold, what's the point of talking about the hand?

Haha, I was ****ing with you man. But not including/factoring game flow and image in a live hh vs a rec is a pretty big leak. Those two things just frame the discussion an insane amount imho.

Your math and thinking is solid. I came up a bit hostile ITT.