5/10 playing 4 handed.
Main Villain(V1) late 40s white guy just sat down 15 min ago with $2k max. He's a rec and seems fairly MUBSY by the type of hands he verbally reads other players for.

V2 early 30s Asian gambly type. He's pretty loose pre, but has folded a lot to big bets/raises pre. He's a big station post flop.

V1 opens btn to $35, V2 calls in the SB. I have KQss in the BB and decide just call. (Didn't want to 3bet and fold V2 out)

Flop($105) As9s4h
Check/check/$65. V2 folds and we call.

Turn ($235) As9s4h 9h
I donk out $120. Villain thinks for around 15 secs and calls.

River ($475) As9s5h 9h 7s
I bet $185. Villain tanks. After a while cuts out a call and places it to the side. Thinks for about another 30 sec and counts out an additional $450 and raises to $635. Hero should???

Not really sure if he's raising smaller flushes here. But my hand looks a lot like a bare 9 so it's possible. Or maybe he's turning a Ace into a bluff?? Ughhhhh

It is quite possible that by the river the villain realized he misread the board and decided to turn 44 into a bluff. Totally villain dependant, but if that's possible, i'd be leaning closer to a call.

3b pre. You are sandwiched oop and have K high.

I don't hate the flat pre but it really comes down to villains tendencies and how sticky they are pre and post. We presumably have a large skill advantage post flop so I'd be willing to maneuver sandwiched here occasionally but I'd probably still 3b a good 70% of the time here be villains as described.

Flop I like the call.

Turn I like the donk, setting our price with intention to give up if we miss (not trying to rep a 9 vs this villain)

River gets a call from me but don't feel great about it

Seems pretty good to me, pre and flop are fine. Betting turn is not really necessary as we have SDV vs a pretty wide button open + bet flop range.

You could also consider the plan of 3/4 pot on the turn and bomb blank rivers to get him to fold an ace, take advantage of his scared way of reading other people.

Yeah I tank folded. Pretty unreal bc I'm a massive egotistical station.

Yes, pre is a slam dunk 3bet. But with the given villains I didn't mind just flatting. Btn seemed straight forward and easy to read. And I had position on sb who I really wanted to keep in.

I was going to fire $400 on blank rivers (maybe it's terrible?). Let the mubsy guy deal with his demons lol

I'd rather go 1.5x pot. It's pretty ambitious to get him to fold an A and you need to really fire hard. But I think he will find the fold button for that size. But if your plan is to make him fold an ace, then 1/2 pot on turn is not that good. Why wouldn't you go bigger on the turn for value when there are still draws on the board, he may think.

Yeah, I'd call the river raise. You went 1/2 pot turn and less than half on the river, I can see flushes being raised and you are quite high in your range, so a fold is quite exploitable. Your job should be to figure out where the center is, roughly (balance) and then deviate from there depending on the strength of your read. I'd say that the deviation towards overfolding in this case is quite high, and you'd need a strongish read to deviate that far.

I know I don't have enough hands played with villain to make any high confidence reads. But there were 2 hands he was involved in where he had to fold and gave his read on what he thought the other player had. Which made me dump him into the bucket of standard MAWG coming to drink a beer and play poker after golf on Sunday. These guys have some unwritten rule where don't raise flushes/straights on paired boards. My problem is anyone with some sense should know to raise rivers to get value from a 9

What does mubsy mean

Monsters under the bed

Right but remember we have king high lol.

Like I'm all for flatting to keep poor villains in in these scenarios:

Tight player opens CO we are btn AQs and sb is station whale that will stack off with tpnk.

Mp tag open, CO station whale calls, we are btn TT

UTG aggro opens and there's super aggro otb we have AA utg+1

Just think about why you want to let people in preflop imo. It's not usually when we have king high and will be oop to the pf aggressor.

I'm not saying flatting is bad, Id do it at some frequency but it would be for reasons other than keeping sb in to dominate him with K high

Ah guess that changes it... I'd be more willing to bluff turn and river but as played it would change my river action to fold

Pre is a very easy 3-bet. You win 8bb uncontested if everyone folds. And if SB calls, which won't be too uncommon, you have position on him. 3-betting is much more +EV than flatting with K high oop.

I don't like the turn lead, esp when you size it that small. Also, you basically never have a full house here when you lead turn. He's also never folding a better hand here OTT or much of anything really, so not exactly sure what you're trying to accomplish.

River call, not thrilled. You made it 1/3 OTR, you can't just fold here vs a raise when he can be raising worse hands.

Yeah think going bigger would be better on blanks.
I know it's a big overfold but there is a large group of villains that just don't raise this river with less than a full house

Yes, I agree... good points. I almost always 3bet here. This hand happened at like 330am and I was definitely tired and hanging around due to the 2 soft spots. Think something I need to work on for long sessions is not defaulting to being passive. At the table and looking back it didn't seem that bad. But as minatorr pointed out winning 8bb here uncontested is great.

I know you play a lot live and I'm sure you know exactly the villain type I'm describing that never raises flushes on paired boards. But it's bugging me bc my hand looks exactly like a 9 that's block betting the river which should give anyone with a clue an opportunity to value raise worse on the river.

Totally agree that I should have 3b pre.

Turn donk is weird... I don't do it against regs or anyone decent. But this guy seemed like the right guy to try and bet/bet off an Ace.

What would you do on turn if i checked and he bets 1/2-2/3 pot? C/r -> bomb river?

I like the turn bet even though we have showdown value. I assume you are planning on firing a lot of bricked rivers. As played I probably find a fold if I was convinced he was a nit but I'd have to really have faith in that read. How often do you see people turn a pair or trips into a bluff on paired boards?

Counting out the call and then raising would be a sick reverse tell though.

I don't know much about live games, but from my online experience I'd rank donking a board-pairing turn card as just about the least convincing bluff of all. Following through on the river seems like a bad idea even with the read on this guy. Fifteen minutes at the table together isn't much to base a read on and we're taking a line that makes it really easy to put us on a busted draw and where the pot is too small to put him to the test.

If the guy is easy to push around then raising the flop seems like the play.

I'm always 3betting pre, unless I think the button will 4bet us light or there's some other dynamic going on instead of flatting to these clowns.

bigger otr - I don't think you really have a great read on him, you said he's mubsy because he calls out hands that can beat him during the session but then you said you don't know if he's raising smaller flushes. A mubsy player's never raising there w/o a FH.

tbh the river call really depends more on the read but I don't see enough info to go either way. If he's a true mubsy player, it's an easy fold but if he's more like a fish/rec, he could have 89o and think he's God. Sometimes they get so excited to see the 9 ott and entitlement sets in and they don't even notice the flush or a possible FH.

+1 to 3bet pre.

Can't imagine folding river after taking this line. If potted it and he shoved, then sure.

the problem OTR is that we block so many combos he would raise with that we can beat and none of the ones that crush us.

Does mubsy guy raise this river with a naked 9 with this line more than 25% of the time? No.. so we fold?