7 handed nl game. non-poker friend (we didn't come to casino together or w/e, just friend) limps utg, he's a pro, I iso w/ 98ss in CO to 40, we're 150bb eff and rest fold. HU to flop. Some of you know villain, it's white 28 yo Pat. Been a live pro for a while in SOCal. 5s6cKs flop. He c/r my 50 to 150 I call. Turn Jd. He bets 340 we call. River 3x he checks we go 325. We usually don't play vs one another too much but it was 7 handed and we been grinding at same table a lot recently so w/e. what you guys doing diff? I think his utg limp / call my iso range is A2-A8s a lot (altho def ev vs anyone OK hu oop w/ hefty rake), 22-77 altho he prob folds 22-44 some, QTs, Q9s. His flop c/r range is prob 55,66, 65s (only 2 combos to begin with and gotta discount anyways bc he prolly doesn't limp/call 65s too much here so give him like .5 combos of it lol), AXss, 87s 3 combos (none w/ fd bc we block w/ our 8s). So this hand is kinda neat what do you guys do? Fold pre? check back flop? 3 bet flop? Ship turn? give up river?

3ball flop to 340-380 and jam all turns.

Pros still limp utg? Flop is like volley ball you bump he sets you up now spike it.

in this specific hand i like a turn ship. against the very top of his range (55/66) you still have ok equity (even if he has 55 he's not in a great spot) and he pretty much has to fold everything else.

what do you mean non-poker friend? Not PLO Pat, right?

i like either stuffing turn or betting slightly more than you did on river (or maybe just checking back and taking my lumps). It's hard without really knowing the dynamic/his tendencies.

The limp utg is fine, but it should be his entire range accommodating game conditions.

no not Pat Walsh. I think villain has nut flush draws and 5's and 6's and not too much else. I thought a small bet otr got him to folds his AXss and thought he rarely if ever checks 5'6 or 6's otr.

non-poker friend meaning good friend

I think your hand has enough equity/flexibility that either the flop 3-bet or turn ship are fine; but I don't think there's much justification for not taking one of those two lines ~100% unless you're up against a complete station.
I prefer in general not to bet river here when the missed draws are so apparent; however I definitely wouldn't have it completely out of my range, just heavily reduced/strong read dependant

Friends don't let friends limp utg.

i like 3-betting flop

as played bet the river bigger

I really dont like your river best sizing. It doesn't seem congruent with TPTK or sets or straight. It looks like a thin value or some cheap bluff to be honest.

You def, dont have KJ with that sizing.

This type of info can induce a shove. But im unsure how he thinks about your sizing.

what's his folding range to a larger bet that isn't part of his folding range to this sizing?

why don't I have KJ here with this sizing?

Fair question. Can't answer that first question. You're only covering one base. You cover that and more if you just make a stronger river bet. That sizing of yours makes YOUR range too transparent. Depending on how he perceives that sizing of yours is key. You can get away with it if he's the kind of villain that is incapable of a shove over.

I don't know what he's capable of.

Is he capable of recognizing small bets to fold out stronger busted draws?

Generally if i pegged someone as a pro, I would avoid this river sizing because it's pretty obvious you don't have a big hand or a hand that is able to withstand a shove.

And why the heck would you have KJ with that sizing? If you have KJ you're going to want to disguise that KJ with some sort of "bluffy" looking bet, which has to be bigger.

Your bet sizing is exactly what i said, it looks like it's trying to fold out a bigger busted draw, or some kind of thin value. Both of which cannot withstand a shove.

The whole "isolating a pro with 9 high preflop" doesn't seem like the best plan.

Are you saying you'd fold 98s in the CO to an UTG limp? Are you saying you'd limp behind?

Prove it.

what range do you give villain at point when he checks river to us?

we do not have OK equity ott vs the top of his range and if he has 55 he is in a "great spot" imo,

He's a pro who limps under the gun.

I'm scratching my head, folding pre, and taking note what he shows.

Suddenly limping utg doesn't seem so bad...

Isolating is really bad imo. You aren't pushing an equity or playability/equity realization edge against villain's range, and since he's supposedly a pro, it's not like he's going to give you the pot if he doesn't flop a hand. Limping behind is clearly best imo.

Once you get to the river this way, I don't think a bet of 325 makes sense. Consider UTG's range:

His line pre, OTF, and OTT is consistent with 66, 55, 65s, and some semibluffs. AK, KQ, and KJ are much less plausible though. For him to have AK, we have to parlay the fact that he didn't open or limp/raise, that he k/r the flop, and that he bet 340 into (395 - rake) OTT, overrepping his hand. With KQ, and KJ, pre is more standard, but the flop and turn play is even more suspect.

OTR, it looks like he's giving up with some draws, or checking to induce with his sets and 65s. Against that polarized range, it's hard for you to valuebet anything that you get to the river with, considering you didn't 3bet the flop or raise turn--i.e., your range is hella capped, bro.

I'm not sure what you're trying to rep with your river bet, Kx looking to get value against Asxs, perhaps? Villain should k/rai with whatever he has, imo.

In sum, this river spot sucks. Avoid it by limping pre (!!!), 3betting flop, or raising turn.

OTR his range becomes set deficient when he checks to me. If it doesn't, it should, imo. Idk exactly how he constructs his ranges but I would assume his 6's and 5's that c/r flop and bet turn, are also betting this river. If he has a c/r flop, bet turn, bet river range, why not have 5's and 6's in it? Also, I highly doubt he has 65s. A.) Idt he limps them utg B.) If he did, I think he folds to my iso. So I'm taking 65s out of his range. It is unreasonable to assume the parlay exists, where he limps 65s and calls my iso hu oop, c/r flop, bet turn and checks river to me. Highly unlikely. It appears as if his river range has his missed NFD's that he decided to give up with and he will be folding his A high fd's to a 325 river bet a lot.

Would you bet Kx on the river as well, to balance this bluff? You're giving villain 4.3:1 on a call, so you really need to be valuebetting a lot. If you are, checking the river with 100% of his range seems like the best play. If you're not betting Kx 4.3 times as often as you have missed draws, he can just c/c with Asxs.

Even if you don't care much about balance (you should, but I digress), it's still not unreasonable for villain to think that you might fold Kx to a river shove, and that he'd get more value from his sets by checking. Given that you think his river betting range contains all of his set combos, but that he would check missed draws, this seems like a good exploitative play from his perspective.

OTR, you are against an agg v and you are behind his entire range (sets and missed draws) with only one way to win, which is to bet and fold out his missed draws. If you bet half the pot, you only have to win 1 in 3 times to break even. If it's true that there is no hand you can have that you wouldn't check back because of the sets in his range, and he is good enough to know it and k/rai any bet you make, then you might as well just give up. If he has a set he is not scared of much, so it does seem reasonable for him to check some of the time to induce you to bet your missed draws. Obv if he k/rai you fold, so if you think you can fold him out, then the question is what is the ideal bet sizing to prevent the k/rai from him on his missed draws. What hand can you have here that would want to bet against his polarized range of sets and missed draws. I can't find one, even KJ or a set of 3s. So it's down to whether you think he will understand the situation. If there's a good chance he won't see it, then I think I would bet half pot in case he perceives a 40% bet as weak, or a 70% bet as bluffy.