Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016
crev was my software of choice when i was grinding hard/studying and trying to figure this stuff out for a spot like this. i havent ran anything for this spot specifically but have ran sims in similar scenarios.
it certainly cannot calculate ev differentials for bad play, however when you calculate the equity for this specific holding (ak) in a heads up pot,( a scenario that I have run, and seen run in training vids) compared to multi way, there is a significant loss in overall equity that will be nearly impossible to overcome with the ev gained from letting the pot go 3/4/5 way with bad players... which will (obv) happen extremely often in loose/passive live full ring games.
like for example..vs a standard utg range you will be looking at probably 45-55, maybe close to 60% vs looser ranges hu, however once the pot goes multiway you are probably looking at 30-35% equity. These numbers arent perfect obv, but I rly dont think theres a player bad enough to warrant accepting this big of an equity dip.
plus if the players are that bad and loose behind you they can make even bigger ev mistakes like cold calling the 3b with weaker holdings (which happens extremely often in the loose 2/5, 5/10 games ime)
fair enough, thanks.
i think my biggest point of disagreement is that i dont think you can/should conclude 3b>flat pre with that degree of confidence, because:
1. as you say, these scenarios are not solved mw. were basically trying to abstract from one situation to another here, but there are tons of different and hard to measure variables. its just doesnt help you
that much to know about the 3b -> hu vs utg range postflop tree here.
2. to echo renton's point - just talking about equity is not telling the whole story. we care about ev, so analyzing equity #s leaves out both the size of the pot and the % of our equity that we can capture. both the size of the pot and our equity realization will go up when a fish comes into the pot. not saying you dont know this, but seems like you glossed over it so i wanted to make the point. as for how bad can the players be, that is one of the variables per point 1 that is hard to measure, but is at the heart of the disagreement - except no one really has a way to measure how bad the players are or would even need to be.
re: your last point - okay, that's possible but we havent really been given any indication that would be the case here, and players generally are far more likely to cold call a single raise too wide than to cold call a 3b too wide. it seems reasonable that players would be bad enough that letting them flat is valuable, but not quite so bad that they are cold calling 3bets with KTo.
