v easy fold. It stinks AK/AA which he would play exactly like this. If he thinks your bad 0% chance he tries to make u fold Kx without the nuts.

*read some posts and definatly agree that your not/and shouldnt be capped at ALL in this spot. AKo/AKs is almost always a flat in this spot so you have all of those combos. And then some KK/AA aswell.

What bluffs would you ever have that get to the river? Even KQo is a fold here, so realistacly we only have KJs/KQs in this spot (which shouldnt even be flats but mostly 3b/fold UTGvsMP but thats another debate).

Yeah, we have 0% bluffs here and from MP vs UTG we should not be flatting KJs/KQs 100bb deep.

Like you mentioned, we should have AA/KK/AK occasionally.

we should have AK close to 100% of the time here, unless UTG is a fish and there are no fish behind

My question is what does our hand look like to the villain after we flat twice and bet river when checked to. My guess is that we have a ton of Kx in our range on the river and he has that beat. If you don't think he will raise 22 from UTG, then tough tough fold...

With that being said, what's the argument for not raising the turn? We get tons of value from AK, and there are more combos of AKo than AA+KK. Do we expect villain to fire a third barrel with air to get us to fold KQ on a brick river?

We have a perceived range disadvantage, we should be calling down with our strong hands, etc. If he has AK, he's going to blast the river anyway.

lol wat? so you flat ak 100% here ep vs utg?????

Yes, unless its a really bad game (as he implied).

That's not going to be a better/higher Ev strategy pf than 3b
You're basically saying that you don't have a 3b range here pre. Aa/kk/we def wanna 3b pre 100% and I can't see a reason not to have ak as a 3b 100%.
I'd encourage folks to run the numbers using some software and note the ev differences in both lines.
Or just hope that the vpips behind from fish will make up for the equity sacrifice of letting other hands in the pot for a single raise. (They don't)

Yeah I agree. I personally would almost always 3-bet AK given positions 100bb deep.

But the fact is, not everyone will and AK will be in our perceived range, so a pro is not going to bluff shove this river against who he considers the worst player at the time in a million years. That was the point

1. I didnt say that
2. Not having a 3b range in this spot if UTG is a TAG and there are plenty bad players behind is a better strat.

Not going to argue about this. To each his own.

But 3b AK 100% in this spot is just terrible.

can you give a little more detail on why you are so confident/what software you would rely on to tell you this, that has the ability to incorporate various degrees of bad play from other players, and is solved down to preflop, multiway?

i dont really think having ak matters too much wrt the actual hand though, as Kx should call before 55 and he can probably just exploitatively fold everything based on the info given. OPs betting range otr very likely looks like {AK, KQ, KJs, 55, 22} with some weighting if you think necessary - even if you take out AK, it's just not that likely that a very good pro is gonna try to make OP (a rec) fold anything he bet with, and there isn't a ton of mystery around the hands he can have here.

crev was my software of choice when i was grinding hard/studying and trying to figure this stuff out for a spot like this. i havent ran anything for this spot specifically but have ran sims in similar scenarios.
it certainly cannot calculate ev differentials for bad play, however when you calculate the equity for this specific holding (ak) in a heads up pot,( a scenario that I have run, and seen run in training vids) compared to multi way, there is a significant loss in overall equity that will be nearly impossible to overcome with the ev gained from letting the pot go 3/4/5 way with bad players... which will (obv) happen extremely often in loose/passive live full ring games.
like for example..vs a standard utg range you will be looking at probably 45-55, maybe close to 60% vs looser ranges hu, however once the pot goes multiway you are probably looking at 30-35% equity. These numbers arent perfect obv, but I rly dont think theres a player bad enough to warrant accepting this big of an equity dip.
plus if the players are that bad and loose behind you they can make even bigger ev mistakes like cold calling the 3b with weaker holdings (which happens extremely often in the loose 2/5, 5/10 games ime)

You're comparing apples (60% equity with 1:1 on your money) to oranges (30-35% with 2:1 3:1 etc on your money). You probably have a decent point with your overall line of thinking, but this part is completely wrong. Not to mention the general irrelevance of pot equity in big bet poker with a lot of stack behind. AK realizes far more than its equity in the pot in all situations due to dominating other hands, and this applies to both the heads-up and multiway scenarios.

It's obviously pretty difficult to prove one way or the other about whether to 3-bet AK here. Just want to point out that when fishes play hands, they tend to lose money. A lot of money. When you have AK, a fish behind K9o or whatever loses way more than his overcalling 4bb or whatever, and you get the lion's share of that loss.

That's not true, generally it's harder to realize equity oop, plus ak doesn't do that well mw, as two random (non a/k) cards don't do that poorly vs it

This probably isn't a good thing.

If we have no bluffs, and we have all AK and some AA/KK then go ahead and fold river.

Also, if we have no bluffs why are we betting $500?

You didnt answer my question

qjs j10s,q10, 76s could play this way.
kq/kj/k10s could play this way for value

also, which is a very big deal, 3b gives the option to win the pot nsd which will happen frequently

Cold-calling an UTG raise with no dead money from EP with any of these hands 100bb deep is massively -EV and a big leak. Except maybe KQs if UTG is splashy

^^im talking about oops possible bluffs

Good pros dont play Kx like this "for value."

And QJs/Q10s/J10s are the worst possible bluffs to pick to bluff with since it blocks the straight draws and backdoor draws we could be bluffing with and fold. Whether you guys who keep talking about GTO believe it or not, there is a less than 1% frequency a live pro takes this line vs a rec/perceived worse player at the table with Kx or a bluff.

And if you think it's reasonable for a good player to play Kx like this for value and get paid off by worse without any given dynamics, the fact that it's UTG vs MP/EP, and given the board runout, that shows flawed hand ranging.

I realize it can be hard to actualize hands that are bluffing in this spot. However, we could have QJs/QTs type hands that want to bluff shove this river.

I agree that in practice maybe we have no bluffs; however, from a theory POV we shouldnt be folding 55. Partly because we do appear "semi" capped.

Important question: Was villain winning or losing that night? If he was losing, I lean towards call, if he was winning, I lean towards fold.

See this is why gto is important^